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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

BBC forecast looked quite juicy for next week on BBC news channel just now to be honest. ❄️

 

Didnt see it but guessing its mainly for the North West ??

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Didnt see it but guessing its mainly for the North West ??

The graphics didn’t suggest that. They may use that forecast for the 22:00 news on BBC1 

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Jet way to the south, snow was mentioned with low heights very near or over the UK. Certainly looks a tricky forecasting period coming up with chances a plenty!

Yes, just watched it - Keep an eye on that low pressure system they showed

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Certainly more amplification here at 120

 

 

Absolutely and height rises in Scandinavia somewhat. Could be the start of something, maybe not, but very early suggestions quite significant. Looking forward now to the next 24 hours of runs. The differences from 138 in the 12z to 132 in the pub run are stark, especially in Scandinavia...

 

Enough from me now... Looking forward to tomorrow!

Edited by Rocheydub
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Getting the low down into southern Europe is going to be a must to help us down the line, the GFS is doing that on this run.  Better run thus far.

image.thumb.png.e561cf3c0882ed0424fff875aa650947.png

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The graphics didn’t suggest that. They may use that forecast for the 22:00 news on BBC1 

Hope so as iv set it to record lol as my mrs is hogging the tv

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

If only this stupid little bit of energy wasn’t splitting off from that low towards southern greenland, stops any attempt at a ridge 

547B18A6-F335-4A1E-912F-E468A09FCDF8.png

Incredibly frustrating. Many times I have looked at the Jan 47 archives and wondered how the same thing didn't happen then as the high built north.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted (edited)

 

There’s hope

7EA93C9C-0F68-441F-9645-4D38094D65DD.thumb.gif.f39b929dc3dfa1d1db064e26720196c9.gif61B2B2D8-33E4-48B1-A5CD-9FF734C2F983.thumb.gif.fa8f906a47fb8478ec73f4fde4949800.gif68BBFE7C-E4E2-47D4-846C-E1FAE455ED02.thumb.gif.7887d4e5c150bd25654ace140f6aa921.gifDB18ADB9-E3C7-4995-B5EB-5DDF56D3B0F0.thumb.gif.54d6e85e7e33ffc51158dd0384db2663.gif

 

9B966D21-69C4-4659-A88E-90779656F57D.thumb.gif.f689978c33289bbae8aa7245316527e1.gif

7859A729-6EDA-424B-88FE-D58B2C197C83.thumb.gif.764e5836145eb31e4d6b647f89ad5076.gifE391CA38-A45B-4FC8-9206-D9064933B391.thumb.gif.f1b9ec167f6dd59d5f2abba28bf59b74.gif61C6BF99-89CE-4E1F-A164-7AC8BFD3D41E.thumb.gif.0492e8e99c6283a69a0739d4554b5103.gif

 

Tuesday 9am, 12pm, 3pm, 6pm, 9pm,

Wednesday 12am, 3am and 6am. 

Edited by Spah1
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Snow charts for a transient NW spell of weather including snow charts shows how low the winter has become!! Really desperate days heading to late January!!

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 

There’s hope

7EA93C9C-0F68-441F-9645-4D38094D65DD.thumb.gif.f39b929dc3dfa1d1db064e26720196c9.gif61B2B2D8-33E4-48B1-A5CD-9FF734C2F983.thumb.gif.fa8f906a47fb8478ec73f4fde4949800.gif68BBFE7C-E4E2-47D4-846C-E1FAE455ED02.thumb.gif.7887d4e5c150bd25654ace140f6aa921.gifDB18ADB9-E3C7-4995-B5EB-5DDF56D3B0F0.thumb.gif.54d6e85e7e33ffc51158dd0384db2663.gif

 

9B966D21-69C4-4659-A88E-90779656F57D.thumb.gif.f689978c33289bbae8aa7245316527e1.gif

7859A729-6EDA-424B-88FE-D58B2C197C83.thumb.gif.764e5836145eb31e4d6b647f89ad5076.gifE391CA38-A45B-4FC8-9206-D9064933B391.thumb.gif.f1b9ec167f6dd59d5f2abba28bf59b74.gif61C6BF99-89CE-4E1F-A164-7AC8BFD3D41E.thumb.gif.0492e8e99c6283a69a0739d4554b5103.gif

 

Tuesday 9am, 12pm, 3pm, 6pm, 9pm,

Wednesday 12am, 3am and 6am. 

Very nice for the NW can't complain at that! :D:D

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

By the way as I mentioned on the other thread, ECM ensembles actually do seem like they are honing in on a possible snow set-up between the 29-31st of the month, that maybe a time period just to keep an eye on and see if other models start to clock the same thing.

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Snow charts for a transient NW spell of weather including snow charts shows how low the winter has become!! Really desperate days heading to late January!!

Some of us down south might of forgotten what snow LOOKS like, give us a break!

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

By the way as I mentioned on the other thread, ECM ensembles actually do seem like they are honing in on a possible snow set-up between the 29-31st of the month, that maybe a time period just to keep an eye on and see if other models start to clock the same thing.

Have felt that for a while in the same way as tomorrow/Wednesday .........that didn’t quite pan out though ! 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Didnt see it but guessing its mainly for the North West ??

It's in the media thread I'd you want to see it

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Premiere Neige Community Regular

Premiere Neige

Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
Posted
19 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Didnt see it but guessing its mainly for the North West ??

Carol Kirkwood said on BBC Breakfast that next week there would be a greater chance of snow for a larger part of the country....

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Either the ec46 is late or.....I'll say no more

See other mod thread.

Just been posted

 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Yes Weeks 2,3,4

looking good as we head into February

FAED829C-D900-463E-AC5A-FCC0AC72D774.thumb.png.e2bd974edb31f90a910f932449b9b3bc.png94161300-510B-4F72-91CD-F270077414F9.thumb.png.bed3863f4bf8fd0db33723ca3e0fa470.png5545D248-35A6-45CA-8DD9-D07D54D0A9F7.thumb.png.98616ffb34d494e742af88588ecddbd7.png

Although we’ve been here before, I understand the lack of excitement that this update may bring. 

But I’d rather it showed this signal than comfirm what some of the more sceptical are possibly thinking! ☺️

Edited by karlos1983
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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Weeks 2,3,4

looking good as we head into February

FAED829C-D900-463E-AC5A-FCC0AC72D774.thumb.png.e2bd974edb31f90a910f932449b9b3bc.png94161300-510B-4F72-91CD-F270077414F9.thumb.png.bed3863f4bf8fd0db33723ca3e0fa470.png5545D248-35A6-45CA-8DD9-D07D54D0A9F7.thumb.png.98616ffb34d494e742af88588ecddbd7.png

Ahmmm…. as it did in Nov, Dec, Jan.

I have that feeling though that Feb will be the month and three quarters of March too.

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Weather of Mass Disruption Enthusiast

Weather of Mass Disruption

Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 

There’s hope

7EA93C9C-0F68-441F-9645-4D38094D65DD.thumb.gif.f39b929dc3dfa1d1db064e26720196c9.gif61B2B2D8-33E4-48B1-A5CD-9FF734C2F983.thumb.gif.fa8f906a47fb8478ec73f4fde4949800.gif68BBFE7C-E4E2-47D4-846C-E1FAE455ED02.thumb.gif.7887d4e5c150bd25654ace140f6aa921.gifDB18ADB9-E3C7-4995-B5EB-5DDF56D3B0F0.thumb.gif.54d6e85e7e33ffc51158dd0384db2663.gif

 

9B966D21-69C4-4659-A88E-90779656F57D.thumb.gif.f689978c33289bbae8aa7245316527e1.gif

7859A729-6EDA-424B-88FE-D58B2C197C83.thumb.gif.764e5836145eb31e4d6b647f89ad5076.gifE391CA38-A45B-4FC8-9206-D9064933B391.thumb.gif.f1b9ec167f6dd59d5f2abba28bf59b74.gif61C6BF99-89CE-4E1F-A164-7AC8BFD3D41E.thumb.gif.0492e8e99c6283a69a0739d4554b5103.gif

 

Tuesday 9am, 12pm, 3pm, 6pm, 9pm,

Wednesday 12am, 3am and 6am. 

Lol, made laugh as cold raining already falling here in Nott’s 

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Weeks 2,3,4

looking good as we head into February

FAED829C-D900-463E-AC5A-FCC0AC72D774.thumb.png.e2bd974edb31f90a910f932449b9b3bc.png94161300-510B-4F72-91CD-F270077414F9.thumb.png.bed3863f4bf8fd0db33723ca3e0fa470.png5545D248-35A6-45CA-8DD9-D07D54D0A9F7.thumb.png.98616ffb34d494e742af88588ecddbd7.png

I’d love to see these from 3 weeks ago see, pretty certain they were showing very similar to this... it’s a good signal to have, but honestly I don’t particularly buy it.

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

The ridge to our east seems to becoming more notable with each run at the moment. 

EFFF279F-5D65-450F-89FB-F2A354C921CB.png

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