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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Surprises ? We’ve been waiting for the cold spell from the SSW for a month ?

That's hardly fair, Tim: the change to cold or very cold weather has always been progged for mid February...

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted (edited)

You are rightly going to abuse me for this. Absolutely correct too.

But... There is a huge difference in the Griceland area at 42 hours on the pub run, pressure increasing and I feel this will be a very different run. Very very different. 

 

**EDIT** Arctic high link up looks possible here now as early as T54

Screenshot 2019-01-21 at 21.45.24.png

Edited by Rocheydub
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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, Rocheydub said:

You are rightly going to abuse me for this. Absolutely correct too.

But... There is a huge difference in the Griceland area at 42 hours on the pub run, pressure increasing and I feel this will be a very different run. Very very different. 

I noticed that slighty - or could be me wanting me to see things that aren't actually there

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Rocheydub said:

You are rightly going to abuse me for this. Absolutely correct too.

But... There is a huge difference in the Griceland area at 42 hours on the pub run, pressure increasing and I feel this will be a very different run. Very very different. 

If it's that different at 42 hours what hope have we got of knowing what's going on later in the week?

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

You are rightly going to abuse me for this. Absolutely correct too.

But... There is a huge difference in the Griceland area at 42 hours on the pub run, pressure increasing and I feel this will be a very different run. Very very different. 

I got your back @Rocheydub

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Why does nobody post charts during the run like they did in the last thread? For newbies like me it's so helpful and the other thread has a lack of it too.

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted

Believe if it’s gonna turn around it will turn around quick

one run has to be the start

it could be the pub run

 

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weather_it_will Contributor

weather_it_will

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Surprises ? We’ve been waiting for the cold spell from the SSW for a month ?

It can take weeks for SSW to take effect. Maybe 52!

There is no guarantee of snow though.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming

 

Edited by 'ColdIsBest'
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Matty J Contributor

Matty J

Posted
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

You are rightly going to abuse me for this. Absolutely correct too.

But... There is a huge difference in the Griceland area at 42 hours on the pub run, pressure increasing and I feel this will be a very different run. Very very different. 

 

**EDIT** Arctic high link up looks possible here now as early as T54

You shouted at shaky the other day for commenting on +72 of certain runs and saying let it run etc and now you’re scrutinising +42

We’ve all lost the damn plot

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

Why does nobody post charts during the run like they did in the last thread? For newbies like me it's so helpful and the other thread has a lack of it too.

Nothing to show of importance to show currently, I assume - I guess more people are interested in the next potential cold/snow shot so they wait to get to that time frame

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's hardly fair, Tim: the change to cold or very cold weather has always been progged for mid February...

Mid February? Lol it was around the 28th December not to long ago, won’t be long until it’s due end of feb. Just saying...

but I’ll still be coming on here 85 times a day hoping the background signals will deliver the all elusive easterly blast in the not to distant future 

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Matty J said:

You shouted at shaky the other day for commenting on +72 of certain runs and saying let it run etc and now you’re scrutinising +42

We’ve all lost the damn plot

Absolutely deserve that! 

But to be truthful, his comments were just on a miniscule scale. The changes early on in this run were quite big.... Seems to have made very little difference to the overall pattern now up to T78. I said it last Saturday evening about the changes in pressure in the Griceland area and it proved true. This has the same sort of feeling about it.

 

One to watch!

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pureasthedriven Aficionado

pureasthedriven

Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
Posted
1 hour ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

I’m looking forward to an easterly at the end of April

Hate those April/May easterlies. Not uncommon either. Just when you desperately want it to warm up, you get the perfect January Synoptics. And 7c! 

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Mid February? Lol it was around the 28th December not to long ago, won’t be long until it’s due end of feb. Just saying...

but I’ll still be coming on here 85 times a day hoping the background signals will deliver the all elusive easterly blast in the not to distant future 

I agree mark, people have selected memories, we've all been waiting avidly for this cold spell right from the start of winter, we had a short cold spell first half Dec then it was projected Xmas time, before moving further and further? False day 10 charts rarely moving forward, nobody's fault though it's just the weather, but yes this winter certainly hasn't gone to plan! 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

BBC forecast looked quite juicy for next week on BBC news channel just now to be honest. ❄️

 

Edited by karlos1983
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Sounds intriguing to say the least.

Jet way to the south, snow was mentioned with low heights very near or over the UK. Certainly looks a tricky forecasting period coming up with chances a plenty!

Edited by karlos1983
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

So, the big three at 96 (GFS 90).   Clearly, there's much to be agreed and these changes will have bigger implications down the line.

GFS image.thumb.png.5094f015ba2135ef389b3f80183ab1c2.png UKMO  image.thumb.png.f24cf837dcdc3c6334815940619f1e88.png ECM image.thumb.png.7ec311148a34c6870952625d133beb11.png

 

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