Cold hunt - models and chat

[Disco_Stu]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Well the tail doesn’t wag the dog.... 

Im not so sure at times

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

How many more times do we have hear the phrase 'background signals'?

Ok, how about distant pointers?

[Ice Day]

Blimey, it's a bit down in here, I've just put my black armband on.  In fairness, there are not many reasons to be cheerful given the output, however, I've just seen Matt Hugo tweet that tonights ECM should pretty much be ignored as it has Friday and Saturday wrong.  Time will tell, but let's hope so as that was not a good run.  T96 is about as far ahead as we can look with any certainty, perhaps the pub run will bring some cheer.

[snowbob]

Has this become just the banter thread

just saying

Edited January 21, 2019 by snowbob

[fromey]

Matt Hugo from Twitter 

Long story short, ignore much of the 12Z EC, it's poor regarding Fri and Sat, to slow to clear front and bring colder air back and massive outliers by the 30th/31st as things stand. Poor run.

[Disco_Stu]

4 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Has this become just the banter thread

just saying

Unfortunately there's much else to talk about

[weather_it_will]

4 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Has this become just the banter thread

just saying

It's model and banter, as per the thread title. Correct

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Maybe because the period it’s always shown northern blocking from is actually the 28th of January, which is still a week away. Not earlier like people are just making up. Makes me wonder if some people can actually read charts at all.

Alright, calm down.

ECM 46 has been bang on all winter.

Edited January 21, 2019 by Johnp

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

It's model and banter, as per the thread title. Correct

Thankyou for explaining that to me.

was just wondering

im obviously new to all this

Edited January 21, 2019 by snowbob

[karlos1983]

It also says keep it model related and more importantly “friendly” 

[78/79]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

What I would give right now for half of what winter 78/79 gave

I was an Apprentice Bricklayer back then, believe me it was bl..dy cold, don't get me wrong I like cold and snow as much as anyone, but having to stay out in it for 8 hours with an East wind blowing on you freezing your bo.....ks off is another matter completely. Don't have to do it these days , if it's that cold then I just don't bother.

[BlackburnChris]

Might have to go in the regional threads later and see if we're gonna get some back edge Snow . 

[snowbob]

9 minutes ago, fromey said:

Matt Hugo from Twitter 

Long story short, ignore much of the 12Z EC, it's poor regarding Fri and Sat, to slow to clear front and bring colder air back and massive outliers by the 30th/31st as things stand. Poor run.

To be fair I do believe that all models are running poorly after around 96hrs.

i think the ssw maybe starting to show and the models are just flapping with every solution.

sometimes things just have to get worse to get better.

Edited January 21, 2019 by snowbob

[karlos1983]

Shame that the ICON didn’t go a few frames further. Scope for a wedge in the perfect position at 120! 

[WhiteFox]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

even in an average winter ,you would expect one decent snowfall.Unless things change fairly quickly this winter is going to end up  a complete shambles and hopefully  the end of long range seasonal forecasting ,as it proven time and time again ,their are too many variables in the U.K. climate to forecast weeks,months ahead.

When FitzRoy first started providing "forecasts" back in the mid-nineteenth century, there were plenty of detractors who said it was a waste of time: the weather would do whatever it wanted.

FitzRoy, of course, was totally reliant on observations telegraphed to him from a relatively small number of sites around the country and he had to collate it all by hand. 

Now we are able to produce reasonable forecasts a few days ahead, of course we are going to try and look further forward. We find ourselves in not too dissimilar a position to FitzRoy: we have some information, but are not yet sure how it all fits together. That will come with applying and testing theories and refining theories when they do not work out as expected. 

I suppose part of that involves putting yourself up for criticism when things do not work out as you perhaps would have forecast. But if it wasn't for the pioneers willing to risk their reputation back in the early days of forecasting (or indeed in any science), then we would not be so advanced as we are.

It is easy to sit back and criticise others when things don't go as forecast, but you just have to accept that a lot of this theory is still fairly young. Those who find it an interesting line of inquiry will continue to pursue it despite the detractors. If you choose to ignore forecasts in the future then so be it; just don't whine about it!

Edited January 21, 2019 by WhiteFox
Typo

[fromey]

5 minutes ago, snowbob said:

To be fair I do believe that all models are running poorly after around 96hrs.

i think the ssw maybe starting to show and the models are just flapping with every solution.

sometimes things just have to get worse to get better.

I think the word is Tut poor, but as they say “ it’s always darkest before the dawn”

Edited January 21, 2019 by fromey

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Just catching up so apologies if it's been covered, but what exactly is a 'high anom...of a mobile variety'?

A high anomoly which doesn’t stick in one area but moves ........whilst the average anoms have been forecast higher than normal  to our north and northwest on the 46, they have been moving around day by day rather than being concentrated in one area like Greenland or Iceland ..

[E17boy]

Hi good evening peeps

Hope you all are ok well I have bought myself back to reality after the spanner was thrown into the potential easterly this week. I am still heart broken but what's the point on dwelling on something that was never meant to be. 

There is no point saying that maybe things will change in a weeks or two time because at the moment to be honest the models further than 2 days ahead don't know if they are coming or going. We are in such a volatile swing of weather at the moment that we have no idea on how February is going to pan out. One thing for sure that keeps getting my attention is that in the Met extended outlook it' seems that a possibility for an Eastery big freeze is still there. Is there some underlying factors they know that will come into play which we don't. Only time will tell.

the main concern that is eating at me now is that we are on the 21st of Jan today and time is rushing past. As the days go past our days of hoping to get a big freeze are going to be outnumbered. Then again saying this the last beast from the east came late Feb so I will put a date of expiry as 12th March and that will be it. Which counting by weeks discounting this week leaves roughly 6 for something notable to happen.

There is still time and I pray and hope we all get our dreams filled. The output may be boring at the moment but we will always live in that hope that MAYBE . 

The search for our winter wonderland continues

wishibg you all a great evening

kind regards

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

ec MEAN looks fab @ day 10...

"Hey Siri, draw a circle around the worst place in Europe for cold and snow"

Edited January 21, 2019 by Johnp

[snowray]

37 minutes ago, NL said:

I travel in the TURDIS coz everyway I go the weather is Poop

Can we all squeeze in there? I know what, lets go back in time to this date in 1947?

[Updated_Weather]

Still believe there maybe some surprises pop up closer to feb in my opinion - this gives me slight more confidence

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Still believe there maybe some surprises pop up closer to feb in my opinion - this gives me slight more confidence

Surprises ? We’ve been waiting for the cold spell from the SSW for a month ?

[Weathizard]

Anyone fancy chipping in on a giant heater to put near Greenland/Eastern Canada, I see no other alternative to rid ourselves of that tiresome piece of vortex

[snowbob]

9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

"Hey Siri, draw a circle around the worst place in Europe for cold and snow"

You should have asked Alexa 

siri not as advanced

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Surprises ? We’ve been waiting for the cold spell from the SSW for a month ?

Wasn't it 2013 we got a SSW in jan and didn't feel the effects til March - there is plenty of time :)