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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent

CFS!!!! Granted things arnt looking fantastic ie blocking but think that's a big ask imo NW

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
17 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Do you spot the recurring theme here?

Everything has continued to be pushed further and further back, despite favourable 'background signals'.

I stand by my opinion that we still know too little about teleconnections and upper level factors and are rolling dice to an extent hoping for a double 6. The noise has apparently been promising since late November, but you only have to look at the score sheet to see who's winning. 

Also, ask yourself the question; if we have such a good grasp of these background signals, then why the volte face on Friday that caught so many off guard? (It's a rhetorical question and doesn't require an excuse as to why everything has been pushed further back). 

So, back to day 10. 

Have a good working week everybody!

This couldn't have been put any better.. Totally agree.. Very very frustrating.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Not a disaster by any means but the ext EPS is moving the trough over Europe towards the mid-Atlantic (with still decent troughing in Europe) in the outer reaches - very similar to the GEFS. Consequently, it's not as cold as previous runs and has been trending warmer over the last few runs.

Residue from the Candian vortex seems to be the issue.  Filaments seem to be flying off towards us - we need that to shut down!

 

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Not a disaster by any means but the ext EPS is moving the trough over Europe towards the mid-Atlantic (with still decent troughing in Europe) in the outer reaches - very similar to the GEFS. Consequently, it's not as cold as previous runs and has been trending warmer over the last few runs.

Knew it - expect exeter to downgrade the cold potential in the 30 dayer either today or tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Knew it - expect exeter to downgrade the cold potential in the 30 dayer either today or tomorrow.

Tbh Feb the outlook looks to be staying the same ie lows pushing south east ahgainst atlantic ridging.Nothing to suggest a change imo so yes there probably will be a watering down in there output early feb I suggest.hope to be wrong btw!

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.63b04945a08c2c98c8a360087f642c8c.png

seeing is believing.

 

Issue being that we've seen charts like this posted all winter to what has materialised is at best a poor reflection on the medium - long range output...I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen, but I think for me, and many on here the model output is viewed with more caution than ever.

Hope springs eternal!

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately there will always be winners and losers Blue..

If your near the south coast it looks naff, if your north of the midlands with altitude there are wintry suprises on offer i would have thought..

Yeah this morning output looks great for our area and those in similar locations 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
2 minutes ago, JeffC said:

seeing is believing.

 

Issue being that we've seen charts like this posted all winter to what has materialised is at best a poor reflection on the medium - long range output...I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen, but I think for me, and many on here the model output is viewed with more caution than ever.

Hope springs eternal!

Is that January 28th? Let's hope it comes true!

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
17 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Not a disaster by any means but the ext EPS is moving the trough over Europe towards the mid-Atlantic (with still decent troughing in Europe) in the outer reaches - very similar to the GEFS. Consequently, it's not as cold as previous runs and has been trending warmer over the last few runs.

Residue from the Candian vortex seems to be the issue.  Filaments seem to be flying off towards us - we need that to shut down!

 

After the warming there was always a 33% chance of it not affecting the UK.

Still loving seeing these ECM0-192.GIF?21-12 plenty of wintry and even thundery showers from that type of output 

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
16 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'd have more faith in DFS to be honest.

CFS is predicting the end of the DFS sale...it’s just around the corner

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Not a disaster by any means but the ext EPS is moving the trough over Europe towards the mid-Atlantic (with still decent troughing in Europe) in the outer reaches - very similar to the GEFS. Consequently, it's not as cold as previous runs and has been trending warmer over the last few runs.

Residue from the Candian vortex seems to be the issue.  Filaments seem to be flying off towards us - we need that to shut down!

 

When looking at the seasonal output from EC and GLOSEA, this always looked to be a risk, with the mean troughing a little further north and west of where we would ideally have liked - it initially looked to bring the risk of a west based -NAO, but it turns out you need to have a -NAO in place before it can become west based ?‍♂️

Anyway - given the fairly wild swings in lower stratospheric modelling I’ve seen in the last few runs, probably best not to take anything beyond a few days seriously as this point until we’ve seen some settling down of the pattern, because subtle nuances in downwelling there will have a huge affect on momentum in the troposphere, which is pretty much the key factor for us right now

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Just now, Jackski4 said:

Is that January 28th? Let's hope it comes true!

No it's the 850 hpa Temperature anomalies for February. Agreed let's hope, but I guess also let's be cautious!

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

 morning folks well it’s excellent to see good background signals personally I think we will see high lat blocking come March April and May so you folks hunting for cold a key date is April 30 and first May  lol

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Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
26 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

This couldn't have been put any better.. Totally agree.. Very very frustrating.... 

Yep. It's a yawn fest. To be honest, at that stage now of apathy whereby couldn't care less whether it snows or not. 

Roll on spring. 

Edited by Jason74
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
15 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Is that January 28th? Let's hope it comes true!

Tbh there is more chance of me having a night on the lash in Sheffield with the pope than that landing!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m almost at my wits end with this winter. I know there’s still a while to go, but all I see at the moment is that stubborn PV lobe and it’s not going anywhere fast. 

Hideous output this morning, unless you live on pretty high ground in the North!

The EC46 update tonight will be interesting. 

Yep it’s been a shocker as per usual. We can never have a proper winter in a winter month . The models just show cold NW winds and the head vortex to the NW just will not relent. No point waiting for the EC46 tonight it’s been promising winter for I don’t no how long . All models have underestimated the energy to the NW . A winter that promised so much has brought zilch . Hope the models come up with some goods in the next few days and count down to T0 but this winter is looking a big bust . 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Tbh there is more chance of me having a night on the lash in Sheffield with the pope than that landing!

We dare to dream! Let's see how all the models perform throughout the course of the day. 

I'm just enjoying the ride, yeah maybe looking at potential deep freezes 10+ days away is frustrating, but I'm convinced it'll happen at some point 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, West is Best said:

???

Perhaps in the winters of 78/9 or February 86 but there is not really a cold pattern locked in on this morning's models. There is some evidence of cold incursions, but these are mostly still beyond T168 and change from run to run. There is insufficiently strong blocking, especially to our north-west over Greenland and this, coupled with the jet, is encouraging a westerly counter-force. In such circumstances 49 times out of 50 the west wins. Sadly.

I urge some caution.

Well  I disagree.The mean temp is  consistently below the long term average over the next ten days or so.Thats a cold pattern for the UK,when it’s hard to get below average temps for 2 or more days in lots of recent winters.

86 was exceptional ,but wasn’t much snow around during the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
9 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Just needed an update..

Early Dec

Mid Dec

Late Dec

Early Jan

Mid Jan

Late Jan ?

Early Feb

Mid Feb

Late Feb

Early March

Plenty of time yet for winter to start !*

* for us down south

Excellent summary of how most of us are probably feeling on here, given that snowpocalypse is now off the table for January (except for all our friends in Scotland perhaps)!  Time hasn't run out yet but we sure need to see something dramatic happening in the next four weeks for it to be memorable given that Spring will then be just around the corner.  Just to show that this is possible, though, and to keep everyone's hopes alive, I have decided to risk a hail of criticism from the purists by posting the following CFS charts:

image.thumb.png.dc87ba73dda85b40cba8e47c7af83292.png  image.thumb.png.c895b9d9e45aa1ffbab5148a940ab756.png

Yes, I know it's 900 hours away (27th February) and yes, I know they'll be gone tomorrow, but its worth looking at them because it shows a BFTE2019 is still possible, among the many millions of other possible ways the UK weather could go in the next 30 days.  Who knows, it might come earlier.  Or it might not happen at all....  All I know is that I will be here every day, like a mug, waiting for the models to show these conditions in the short term.  But then I always check my lottery numbers too, and that never works. 

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

There is plenty of time left

remember the great 2009 Thames streamer well that was feb 2nd I believe

would that be showing up yet 

I doubt it

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

The CET for March 2013 is the coldest of the last 8 years.

I had high hopes from the model watching of last month and of last week that finally we would get a winter month that was colder....maybe even Januarry but probably definitely February!!

Not so sure now. But I am glad I'm not in the business of selling sledges otherwise I'd be left hanging with a lot of expensively purchased stock right now wondering if I'll ever be able to get it moved!! 

Edited by Timmytour
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