Cold hunt - models and chat

[SLEETY]

26 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Happy with that. Sums up my earlier post nicely.

That's not the actual chart though, it's just the mean of all the  runs put together. Never been a fan of means, could be miles out.thats 11 days away, 

Edited January 20, 2019 by SLEETY

[Bazray]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Interesting that more members are on here than Forecast model thread. I think the Mods have split the thread. I respect the rules but cold hunt and banter should be separate. I think members are confused as to were the main contribution from members is. Hunt for cold, you have to few the models so I don't get it. I understand that the Mods are doing there best but just find the new thread annoying. 

With respect, the way it was before was not working, to many off topic posts and banter on a thread that was for serious model discussion, now at least you can chat in a more relaxed way about the models or go to the other if you want a more detailed serious chat. Good idea imo.

[nick sussex]

More encouraging signs from the GFS 06 hrs run and there’s a better chance of this coming off than the recent drama.

The Arctic high aided will it or won’t it easterly is very rare and this new trend looks less likely to end up in a ditch .

Just shows how quickly things can change . The difference this time is the easterly fiasco wasn’t an all or nothing situation as we’ve seen in the past where that implodes and that’s it for weeks .

The background signals especially the SSW downwelling mean we have a chance of  a north ne flow than perhaps an easterly after that .

As Captain Picard would say.

Make it so! ⛷⛸

[Firefly2005]

Just now, Bazray said:

With respect, the way it was before was not working, to many off topic posts and banter on a thread that was for serious model discussion, now at least you can chat in a more relaxed way about the models or go to the other if you want a more detailed serious chat. Good idea imo.

I much prefer this style of thread as as a newcomer I found that I wasn’t able to contribute at all and it felt unwelcoming. This is much better in my opinion.

[snowfish1]

31 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Second bite seems the form horse now.

I do agree with what an earlier poster mentioned, in that I'm more convinced that the second attempt will verify in some meaningful way. 

Anything after 4th of Feb is fine by me, as my son is due to be born today, and after last week's runs I had visions of sliding into the hospital sideways rather than driving.

Would be great to see a spell like '91 at around the same time, which remains my fondest memory of severe winter conditions. 

Congratulations buddy u must be so excited 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That's not the actual chart though, it's just the mean of all the  runs put together. Never been a fan of means, could be miles out.thats 11 days away, 

Only makes sense to me, when there's only one cluster...With two or more, the mean becomes nowt more than an arithmetic curiosity?

[Nick F]

35 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Second bite seems the form horse now.

I do agree with what an earlier poster mentioned, in that I'm more convinced that the second attempt will verify in some meaningful way. 

Anything after 4th of Feb is fine by me, as my son is due to be born today, and after last week's runs I had visions of sliding into the hospital sideways rather than driving.

Would be great to see a spell like '91 at around the same time, which remains my fondest memory of severe winter conditions. 

 

Yep, still plenty to be optimistic about today IMO with regards to the general patterns evolving from the medium range modelling, including another attempt from the models at a very cold E or NE flow to end the month into February.

It’s looks like the models may start to firm up on a second attempt at ridging poleward over the Atlantic towards Greenland and Iceland in the last few days of this month, this helped by perhaps more favourable forcing of the MJO cycle for the Atlantic amplification but also the more sustained downwelling of easterly winds from the lower stratopshere down through the troposphere at the end of the month and into early February. This combo of forcing from above and below will hopefully prove more sustained and stronger for high latitude blocking to develop.

Before this potential, there could be some back edge snow on the active cold front sweeping southeast Monday night, followed by wintry showers in the NW following. Wouldn't rule out a few wintry showers for SE England and East Anglia via NE wind on the back of the low dropping into near continent later in the week too, as per 00z EC:

A milder blip perhaps next weekend, as the remnants of the weekend winter storm over NE USA redevelops as a deepening low near Iceland and heads east turning winds westerly. Then we could descend into a stormy spell with lows diving SE into northern Europe, bringing Pm flows that could feature snow for northern areas, before that Atlantic ridge amplifies north and polar height rises from easterly winds developing in the trop from SSW downwelling combine to increase chances of HLB. The EPS for London certainly show the weekend 26/27th milder blip then downward temp trend to end the month:

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by Nick F

[Steve C]

6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Winter is not over in January, does anyone not remember Feb 86 a foot of snow in Edinburgh from the east sticks in my mind,,,,I still see a very snowy February coming up which is still a winter month normally the coldest too ️

Yep, the coldest month in my lifetime.

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Bazray said:

With respect, the way it was before was not working, to many off topic posts and banter on a thread that was for serious model discussion, now at least you can chat in a more relaxed way about the models or go to the other if you want a more detailed serious chat. Good idea imo.

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it spoils the enjoyment! 

Edited January 20, 2019 by snowice

[JoeShmoe]

13 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Winter is not over in January, does anyone not remember Feb 86 a foot of snow in Edinburgh from the east sticks in my mind,,,,I still see a very snowy February coming up which is still a winter month normally the coldest too ️

End of Feb last year up here as well (remember that red warning day when over 10 inches fell )

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/2294601/beast-from-the-east-red-warning-scotland-rush-hour-met-office-storm-emma/

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by JoeShmoe

[Bazray]

10 minutes ago, Firefly2005 said:

I much prefer this style of thread as as a newcomer I found that I wasn’t able to contribute at all and it felt unwelcoming. This is much better in my opinion.

Yes same mate, I’m not really a newbie, but have no real idea about the technical aspects of meteorology. So felt unable to contribute also, not that I have much of interest to add, but still, this is a good idea.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Bazray

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it splits the enjoyment! 

Just read both then simples

i do

Edited January 20, 2019 by snowbob

[Bazray]

5 minutes ago, snowice said:

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it splits the enjoyment! 

Well depends doesn’t it, is your comement on the weather / models detailed and technical or just a passing comment? 

Edited January 20, 2019 by Bazray

[snowfish1]

1 minute ago, Bazray said:

Yes same mate, I’m not really a newbie, but have no real idea about the technical aspects of meteorology. So felt could unable to contribute also, not that I have much of interest to add, but still, this is a good idea.

Me too Boys so I'm. Glad we. Have somewhere to hang out... Can I join in

[nick sussex]

NCEP have above average confidence in the pattern over the USA.

A strongly amplified east Pacific / West coast ridge and east ne American trough.

This downstream over us normally means a displaced Azores high and Euro troughing . It also means that the main PV will be kept further to the nw and the jet track se into Western Europe .

[Steve C]

9 minutes ago, snowice said:

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it spoils the enjoyment! 

I quite like the split tbh. At least this thread seems to be for those with a cold bias. I found the stick that people like IDO took for making cautionary and frankly balanced posts annoying (the evidence so far is that he's been closer to the mark than many)

Most people here in Winter seem to prefer the ramping style posts, so the split makes sense to me.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Steve C

[Bazray]

5 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Me too Boys so I'm. Glad we. Have somewhere to hang out... Can I join in

Anyway it’s all joyful and cheerful on here at the moment, we are on the upwards run of the rollercoaster ride, let’s see what happens when the next downwards slope appears.

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by Bazray

[JoeShmoe]

1 minute ago, Steve C said:

I quite like the split tbh. At least this thread seems to be for a cold bias. I found the stick that people like IDO took for making cautionary and frankly balanced posts annoying (the evidence so far is that he's been closer to the mark than many)

Most people here in Winter seem to prefer the ramping style posts, so I think the split makes sense to me.

Couldnt agree more and having to wade through 3 pages of 'BOOM' or 'best chart in the internet age' or 'GFS all over the place' before getting to a post from someone respected with a balanced view across a whole run or suite was tedious

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That's not the actual chart though, it's just the mean of all the  runs put together. Never been a fan of means, could be miles out.thats 11 days away, 

 

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Only makes sense to me, when there's only one cluster...With two or more, the mean becomes nowt more than an arithmetic curiosity?

Means are only useful if you alsoview the spreads or clusters ....... it gives you a template from which to work ....... fwiw, this weeks diving trough was initially obvious from the mean/anoms ......

[Johnp]

3 hours ago, Johnp said:

Just think, this could be Navgem's finest hour.

All those years of mocking, coming bottom of verification stats, people asking why they bother etc.

This time next week when I'm knee deep in snow, I'll raise a glass to the mighty Navgem!

*Wakes up from dream*

Well Navgem, you were just teasing all along.

Alas, forever to be consigned to the shredder.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NCEP have above average confidence in the pattern over the USA.

A strongly amplified east Pacific / West coast ridge and east ne American trough.

This downstream over us normally means a displaced Azores high and Euro troughing . It also means that the main PV will be kept further to the nw and the jet track se into Western Europe .

I think this is where the confidence in the pattern is stemming from. Totally different scenario to this failed easterly setup. Presuming it fails, which looks all but settled now. 

We were really up against it with hindsight, PV nowhere to go, Azores high to close by. 

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by karlos1983

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

Couldnt agree more and having to wade through 3 pages of 'BOOM' or 'best chart in the internet age' or 'GFS all over the place' before getting to a post from someone respected with a balanced view across a whole run or suite was tedious

YEAH but come on those charts this morning?? BOOM!

[Number 23]

7 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Congratulations buddy u must be so excited 

Thank you, I am indeed as it's our first! 

My wife keeps saying he's holding out for the snow lol. 

I'm actually more confident of a cold spell than I was on Friday; perhaps because I didn't want the cold during next week anyway! There's a definite sense of something brewing, at least to my untrained eye and others have explained this very well.

Much rather see the general theme get picked up and then upgrade from 120 onwards than show it's hand at 168-192+ as we know how that usually ends!

[sparky1972]

morning all, well, just back from my half marathon training run and my legs are knackered, so i might just chill on the sofa for the afternoon and get ready for the ups and downs of todays model output and fingers crossed a snowy cold outlook is just around the corner.

[snowfish1]

52 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Monday night into Tuesday morning is now within the hi-res models.

Plenty of shower activity moving in from the WNW/NW after the frontal system has moved through.

That looks like rain for se