Cold hunt - models and chat

[Paul Sherman]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

What IS interesting though is the timeframe is coming FORWARD in time.

In all my years, that's normally a strong signal that the model is keying into something properly, its when you start to see things getting delayed that you worried. Pretty much all the big cold spells I can remember had this movement forward in time as the signal becomes more clear.

Darren I have always said most noteworthy Cold Spells come with a week or two of hard frost, freezing fog etc etc before the snow comes, if the next week or so turns out that way laying the foundations then yes early February could be game on but if that High moves in and somehow settles unfavourably I can also see how this can just be the reappearance of the Slug as well.

Time will tell and next weekend will be interesting to view another set of Day 10 Charts to see what the Models are latching onto

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Very true, 1st march last year. Heavy snow and max of -3c !

Indeed, that'll certainly be a memorable St Davids Day that people will remember for many years probably here in Wales

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, sausage said:

what i find incredible is the varying difference in forecasts! latest bbc forecast saying signif snow crossing the country monday night and snow showers packing in n piling up across the country on tues!! these forecasts use to be incredible, they seem now nothing but a laughing stock n change as much as glosea n mogreps seem to!

It's difficult given the 850s, dew points and alltitude ete

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I understand there is model fatigue, but just because one set-up hasn't worked out well, doen't mean another one won't shortly down the line! Ironic as this one is BY FAR the more stable looking evolution wise and has big cross model support as well, something the easterly never had despite looking pretty impressive at times!

Anyway I still think the main show comes week 1-2 of Feb, all we are waiting for really is that lobe in NW America to get shoved SE either towards Europe or the Atlantic which is happening right at the back end of the GFS run.

Great 06z anyway with a bonus cold shot becoming more and more backed up by the models for the very back end of Jan.

 

I agree, @kold weather and can I say also that, with a certain amount of hindsight now on my part, that your posts over the last couple of days, as the easterly went up in smoke, have been absolutely on the money.  

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Darren I have always said most noteworthy Cold Spells come with a week or two of hard frost, freezing fog etc etc before the snow comes, if the next week or so turns out that way laying the foundations then yes early February could be game on but if that High moves in and somehow settles unfavourably I can also see how this can just be the reappearance of the Slug as well.

Time will tell and next weekend will be interesting to view another set of Day 10 Charts to see what the Models are latching onto

Yeah that last point you make is a slim chance but you never know, one or two ensemble members on the 18z did show that happening and I think 1998 had that happen, with a very -ve AO but the upper lows dived too far west and promoted a strong upper high over SW Europe to ridge in

Anyway I suspect had the GFS ran on another 48-72hrs you'd see an Azores high show its face as well as a true Greenland high emerge.

I'd argue actually the Azores high probably is a good thing this time as it will help to promote the cold to come southwards down the other side of the block. Without it and the whole thing might have been somewhat flabby and lacking punch.

I'm amazed also at just how close the GFS operational is to the ECM ensemble clusters even through 300hrs at the 500mbs level, that's impressive.

Edited January 20, 2019 by kold weather

[Snowjokes92]

5 minutes ago, sausage said:

what i find incredible is the varying difference in forecasts! latest bbc forecast saying signif snow crossing the country monday night and snow showers packing in n piling up across the country on tues!! these forecasts use to be incredible, they seem now nothing but a laughing stock n change as much as glosea n mogreps seem to!

When was this. I think minor changes in output will keep us in the cold air boundary. Similar to last winter when less cold weather occured

[mulzy]

The 6z GEFS are already a significant improvement up to day 7.  

After the downs of yesterday, today is looking much better so far!

Edited January 20, 2019 by mulzy

[Skullzrulerz]

You're kidding me right ? We're back to looking at FI land again which over 95% never comes close... Time is nearly up for this winter 

[Snowjokes92]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You're kidding me right ? We're back to looking at FI land again which over 95% never comes close... Time is nearly up for this winter 

What a silly thing to say winter officially began just short of a month ago we arent even halfway through yet!

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I agree, @kold weather and can I say also that, with a certain amount of hindsight now on my part, that your posts over the last couple of days, as the easterly went up in smoke, have been absolutely on the money.  

I so wanted to be wrong I can assure you and I feel felt that gut punch when the 00z runs came out yesterday.

However the warning signs were ringing very loudly when you followed run to run and start to notice the little things moving in the wrong direction. On their own its not a killer but with 3-4 factors moving in concert small marginal changes start to accumulate over runs. Its why I always close analyse the small features, because they can tell you a lot about the actual background of what is happening.

I could be wrong (as all of us) about this next opportunity as well in early Feb, and indeed the cold spell before it showing on the models could go wrong as well, but I'm as confident as I personally could be about early Feb having good cold and snow chances.

One last big heave guys! In marathon terms, we are at 18-20 miles and hitting the wall, if we can push past it the end goal will be in sight.

Edited January 20, 2019 by kold weather

[snowfish1]

12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Quick summary from me.

Appears to me the models were too quick in removing an E,ly and we shall see an E,ly flow albeit brief and nothing noteworthy. Thereafter a brief warm up which is clearly shown on the 0Z GEFS ensembles.

A very quick return to a N,ly flow and thereafter a strong signal that low pressure will finally sink SE and we shall be in a NE/E,ly flow. Around end of the month/start of Feb a strong signal that HLB will keep the UK in a cold/very cold NE/E,ly flow.

So mostly cold but any significant cold/snowy spell remains towards end of the month/early Feb.

 

I shall finally add that exactly a year ago today on my birthday I was in intensive care and nearly died from Pneumonia. I no longer get so excited at the high and lows of following the models because I realised there is far more important things than snow!

I am. Glad you are well again and yes cold weather isn't fun if you are ill or infirm. Which model will pick up. On the easterly first then teits

[Froze were the Days]

10 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Quick summary from me.

Appears to me the models were too quick in removing an E,ly and we shall see an E,ly flow albeit brief and nothing noteworthy. Thereafter a brief warm up which is clearly shown on the 0Z GEFS ensembles.

A very quick return to a N,ly flow and thereafter a strong signal that low pressure will finally sink SE and we shall be in a NE/E,ly flow. Around end of the month/start of Feb a strong signal that HLB will keep the UK in a cold/very cold NE/E,ly flow.

So mostly cold but any significant cold/snowy spell remains towards end of the month/early Feb.

 

I shall finally add that exactly a year ago today on my birthday I was in intensive care and nearly died from Pneumonia. I no longer get so excited at the high and lows of following the models because I realised there is far more important things than snow!

Nice post - sounds like you've had your share of problems/bereavements over recent years so that explains why we've heard less from you. Tomorrow I have my fathers funeral and have largely following the models closely to see  if the day was going to have any weather impacts but hasn't looked that way really for the last week.

[That ECM]

With what is showing in the output past t120 is not reliant on small wedges that are susceptible to being flattened or moved to the “wrong” place. What is being shown is a lot more robust. Gfs in fi throws a number of small lows east but they go over the block to the northwest and as such have little effect on our area. I get people’s scepticism, once twice three times burnt etc but that should not mean you expect it to happen every time. I for one are liking how this could shape up.  

 

we know nothing is nailed until t72 but that does not mean we should not pontificate about latter frame output. If that were the case then this thread would be irrelevant. 

[Methuselah]

Here's the GEFS T850 00Z for Suffolk. A lot of members going below -5C, and staying there. I wonder whether the 06Z runs will back-up the EC's supercluster?

 

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You're kidding me right ? We're back to looking at FI land again which over 95% never comes close... Time is nearly up for this winter 

Well bye until next year then if you think that . Nothing is 100% in the weather world but with all the noise , we would be extremely unlucky not to get a cold spell out of this . 

[snowray]

GFS 06z ensemble mean at T180 looking great.

[Empire Of Snow]

Anyone have a feeling that FI will verify this time or is it just me? We're actually having cross agreement of most models at a large time frame which doesn't happen often. The Azores small ridge eastwards is beneficial and I can't see right now how it's possible after this to miss a Northeasterly. It seems that we can be attacked by cold by both directions, northwest and northeast. 

Fingers crossed. 

[Catacol]

9 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Ian mentioned JMA a couple of years ago as a model taken into consideration at Meto. Not a model to be dismissed, for sure.

Top performing 240h model in Feb 18.....

[Stuie]

With Tues morning being my focus, Tues evening with the cold in place could be a nice dusting for the midlands south.

 

[ALL ABOARD]

If people are hell bent on posting 'winters over' posts then that's fair enough, but why are you still in the model output thread searching for cold?

I understand the frustration because so far this winter we've been so close to something memorable and long lasting but unfortunately this is the british weather and it loves to tease us. 

It's always a shame when a pattern collapses so close but does that put me off searching for the next pattern that may be 10 days away? No. Why you may ask? Because a big part of it for me is the chase and trying to learn why it goes wrong even when everything looks right. 

So where are we moving forward?

All models now begging to pick up on the downwelling of the SSW. GFS maybe a little to quick the other day when it was showing us those wintry nirvana charts and full reversal of the NH. But overall I wouldn't be suprised to see some extreme NH charts over the next couple of weeks. 

Greenland highs with enough vortex left in its home to prevent West based nao.

Sliders with cold air entrenched?

What Could possibly go wrong. 

On another note if it does all go Pete tong, it will be interesting to see why and how even with all the factors in our favour we still couldn't get it right. 

Enjoy the ride. 

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by ALL ABOARD

[iceman1991]

Not great reading models so I just come in here read through comments if you could help me are they going back to this   Eastlei winds end of week or just a bit colder then what they were showing  Yestaday ? 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Why can't I post? 

You just did...

[ALL ABOARD]

Just now, Seasonality said:

You just did...

Yeah weird it sais hidden on mine haha. God knows. 

[tight isobar]

A very encouraging set via 6z..

(London ones)

We are certainly getting a tightning of cluster and belly drop..

Still looks to be going cold...into very cold 

 

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Not great reading models so I just come in here read through comments if you could help me are they going back to this   Eastlei winds end of week or just a bit colder then what they were showing  Yestaday ? 

I'm an amateur too! From what I can make out, these very clever people are saying the models look good from day 8+ so that's next weekend,with real cold and easterlies looking likely. This week looks cold too, but less so and nothing too disruptive.