Cold hunt - models and chat

[Penicuikblizzard]

2 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'll post this chart to hopefully calm some nerves

EPS continuing to highlight below average temperatures right out into the extended - Despite a "less cold" blip possibly later next week now looking likely the overall theme and consensus across the models is for temperatures to remain below average with a trough across Europe. The first Easterly may have failed (may not have yet, the spread is so huge there's a possibility it'll come back, ICON seems to think so) but there is already another sinking trough followed by Atlantic height rises showing on the models for days 7-11. 

The 1st Easterly?? I make that 3 failed attempts this winter now!

this has been a very typical 1990s winter with the uk high pressure dominated and mild 

[PLANET THANET]

in reply to previous question, go to very top of page and click on your name, scroll down to" ignored user" and then follow instructions

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

in reply to previous question, go to very top of page and click on your name, scroll down to" ignored user" and then follow instructions

Thanks for that. Now no-one will see my posts and I’ll be left talking to myself

[Methuselah]

We could be heading into sliderland...again!

[pureasthedriven]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

We could be heading into sliderland...again!

Tedious.

Not you, you understand. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes - big greenlang high coming up here!!

 

Dec 17th 2010 coming up.

[Yozzer]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We could be heading into sliderland...again!

Sliderland. Sounds like a naff winter theme park...

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes - big greenlang high coming up here!!

 

Dec 17th 2010 coming up.

Do we really have to wait 8 days though!! Haha

[Stuie]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

Do we really have to wait 8 days though!! Haha

It`s normally 10 so we are winning.

[pureasthedriven]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

Do we really have to wait 8 days though!! Haha

Ten

[Ice Day]

Continuity from the GFS, here come the Greenland heights at 204

6z   0z 

Edited January 20, 2019 by Ice Day

[kold weather]

I'd say Penicuikblizzard it was our first realistic shot at getting a colder airmass to sustain, even then the models were never all totally onboard with it and kept showing different solutions from run to run.

Anyway I'm really impressed that we seem to be evolving into a possible weak -ve NAO set-up earlier and earlier and that should help to get things going when we do get a full blown HLB forming.

Won't be anything too cold and sustained yet as there is still plenty of energy spilling off the US but better than a WSW airflow some models were suggesting for next weekend.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes - big greenlang high coming up here!!

 

Dec 17th 2010 coming up.

Consistent with the previous run but a bit further east, which is better in this case.

[WhiteFox]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm pondering about the MJO at the moment-

Does anyone have the latest plots? Suspect we might be getting a bit of assistance looking at the 00z runs broadly..

ECM forecast to move into phase 6 around the 23rd. Think part of the reason we saw the easterly blow up is that it was forecast to edge into late phase 4 and then cycle fairly quickly through to 6, but last few days have seen a trend towards earlier in phase 4. 

Not sure it's worth posting in here anyway as it just gets lost amongst the other noise! 

Also, maybe worth noting that GEFS loses the phase 6 signal fairly quickly and it descends back into the COD. Worth keeping an eye on...

Edited January 20, 2019 by WhiteFox
Typo

[That ECM]

good Consistent output  genuinely think this is a strong signal

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Consistent with the previous run but a bit further east, which is better in this case.

Brutal cold over scandinavia to tap into two  

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Yozzer said:

Sliderland. Sounds like a naff winter theme park...

That's the one, Yozzer. It's main attraction is called The Beast, which is always expected tomorrow!

[swfc]

Again we see know standard west to east movement of the jet and see the movement of any low pressure moving South East with high pressure to the west.not really that cold but with alltitude transient snow.not that exciting but it's what it is.hopefully yet again something going into February may deliver.you can live in hope or die in Rotherham!!!

Edited January 20, 2019 by swfc

[kold weather]

Also note this time on the 06z GFS a shortwave helps to promote ridging, a nice little feature running down the east side of the upper ridge developing from the Azores high.

Close to splitting a clean split of the vortex again at 204hrs as well. Note that 2 days ago, this was forecasted for around 348hrs, so its really leapt forward in timeframe which is nice, though I still think any 'true' blocking is probably 12-15 days timeframe from today but if it comes earlier, then good.

[Ice Day]

Very very nice. *Should* get a decent northeasterly out of this....

[Jackski4]

Now guys... I know we're all excited about what's to come, but what about that little low pressure skimming the north sea coasts on Wednesday? Thoughts?

[Stuie]

Ahh got the 6am Tues Wet bulb from the GFSP, decent.

 

[lorenzo]

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Ahh got the 6am Tues Wet bulb from the GFSP, decent.

 

Problem is the main ban of precipitation will have cleared most areas by then, this is good in terms of chances of snow showers settling though

[Mike Poole]

Good output this morning compared to yesterday. And great run so far in the 6z, here T222:

If, and it is not certain yet, next weeks easterly is over, no matter, the background signals and SSW downwelling are still there and will make themselves felt, as in this run.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Mike Poole