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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 minute ago, Jake Strickland said:

Yes fingers crossed ECM out soon we shall see

When's it out please 

 

1 minute ago, Jake Strickland said:

Yes fingers crossed ECM out soon we shall see

When's ecm out 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
1 minute ago, Jake Strickland said:

Yes fingers crossed ECM out soon we shall see

I've been waiting since 3am so it better deliver!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

The models are still extremely poor.in forecasting anything that isn't Atlantic driven weather. Despite the huge increase in computer power they have been all over the place recently

Looking at all these amazing runs that were showing easterlies sliders huge snowstorms, the only problem was the easterly hadn't verified in the first place

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

The models are still extremely poor.in forecasting anything that isn't Atlantic driven weather. Despite the huge increase in computer power they have been all over the place recently

Looking at all these amazing runs that were showing easterlies sliders huge snowstorms, the only problem was the easterly hadn't verified in the first place

I agree well I guess that is default for the U.K

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

Personally, after ICON jumping back on the cold band wagon earlier this morning, I feel quietly confident about the upcoming runs today.. I'm probably wrong but, we can only hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

And ecm trying again lol. So don't rule out we might get it still

Do elaborate, I can't bear to look!

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

You know this ssw has been a strange phenomenon. If that's the right word. I think we will do alright out of it. But it's sure taken a time to effect 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

 

 

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The ECM really tried to get the link up at T96 to get me interested, 120 similar to yesterday’s 12z though by the looks

So close you can't rule it out with the back tracking going on this morning. Terrible performance by all the models whatever the final outcome. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM & ICON move back to a colder solution but not the whole 9 yards-

Is there enough High pressure ahead of that low to force it to slide south...

7FA72519-B3E7-4AF7-B748-AADE62904071.thumb.png.7e87a3886622f37619a0d1afb6cbf96b.png

Hi Steve

 

This whole chase has been mammoth ongoing..... When is it gojng to give us a break surely we are due 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM & ICON move back to a colder solution but not the whole 9 yards-

Is there enough High pressure ahead of that low to force it to slide south...

7FA72519-B3E7-4AF7-B748-AADE62904071.thumb.png.7e87a3886622f37619a0d1afb6cbf96b.png

Too much of the wretched AZH nosing in towards us, SM. Better than yesterday’s 12z though 

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Just now, SLEETY said:

 

 

So close you can't rule it out with the back tracking going on this morning. Terrible performance by all the models whatever the final outcome. 

I said yesterday I think that was the low point, had we woken up today and the icon was still showing yesterday's 00z and 06z I would have thrown the towel in. 

What looks like happening to me here is for some un known reason the icon is picking out all the finer detail but really struggling to place it. 

Then the GFS ecm try follow this to some degree... Although I have no idea what that gfs 00z is all about.. 

I said ecm will be much better by 12z run later today and icon much improved by the 12z or 18z today.. That means maybe the ECM 00z tomorrow will be even better.. 

Not sure how to call gfs its really really struggling 

As for the other models, well jma some how is verifying just behind icon and ecm which is quite rare.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Oh my god the ECM was so close but this run just falls at the final hurdle. But ICON and ECM definately an improvement. Gfs was pretty much the same. But ECM jump starts the thread again with a oooooooh you hit the post moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I said yesterday I think that was the low point, had we woken up today and the icon was still showing yesterday's 00z and 06z I would have thrown the towel in. 

What looks like happening to me here is for some un known reason the icon is picking out all the finer detail but really struggling to place it. 

Then the GFS ecm try follow this to some degree... Although I have no idea what that gfs 00z is all about.. 

I said ecm will be much better by 12z run later today and icon much improved by the 12z or 18z today.. That means maybe the ECM 00z tomorrow will be even better.. 

Not sure how to call gfs its really really struggling 

As for the other models, well jma some how is verifying just behind icon and ecm which is quite rare.. 

Agree, they tend to be heading in a better direction.. for now! When does ICON next come out?

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
5 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Oh my god the ECM was so close but this run just falls at the final hurdle. But ICON and ECM definately an improvement. Gfs was pretty much the same. But ECM jump starts the thread again with a oooooooh you hit the post moment.

When ICON went against the easterly a day or so ago, it took 2 ecm runs to catch up and everyone was then disappointed. Hopefully with ICON looking better again, the ECM will catch up later on today!

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Around 8:30-9am I think don't quote me on that though... 

I kn gfs starts around 9am?

ECM around 6pm tonight 

GFS 6z is 9:30-10:45 AM.. Let the countdown begin!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Well..

Goodluck to anybody attempting to make a forecast for later next week. This is getting a little ridiculous now 

ens_image.thumb.png.6a953903bf02368aebc5645f5166e5f0.png

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