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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

Well, the BBC 10 day outlook didn't mention any cold easterly winds but did say about the high uncertainty. It didn't show anything mild either, with a cold north or north west flow by next weekend. No big freeze but rather cold.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

There is some SERIOUS- carbon copy of what others have posted in here.

Not 2 mention..

Some very over the top...handbag like gfuqhgfpjhing!!..

Its non worthy..

We are in the game-and its nailed down 2 some minor adjustments!!!

Daft..

And we are on the cliff edge of falling into some news making weather.

Some want the anchor note..on the bbc 10-0 clock news...

Keep watching...

 

 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Key difference beteeen the potential by late next weekend onward and that for the week ahead?

This coming weeks’ requires a precise coming together of events to bring more than transient notably cold weather to the UK, but the week after’s requires that to prevent such a thing.

 

This being as the SSW impacts become dominant hemisphere-wide instead of regionally.

 

That being said - given the positioning of the lower stratospheric ridge, I feel it’s unlucky not to get at least a brief shot of deep level cold from the east this coming week. So I’m hesitant to draw a line under that chapter just yet.

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted

I must add even if the GFS has all members facing no cold I would still take a pinch of salt past 120h. 

Many of us have seen all completely flip before and sometimes it takes a small change for this to happen.

Goodnight guys. Onwards and upwards tomorrow!

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

There is some SERIOUS- carbon copy of what others have posted in here.

Not 2 mention..

Some very over the top...handbag like gfuqhgfpjhing!!..

Its non worthy..

We are in the game-and its nailed down 2 some minor adjustments!!!

Daft..

And we are on the cliff edge of falling into some news making weather.

Some want the anchor note..on the bbc 10-0 clock news...

Keep watching...

 

 

"News making weather"....ok. It's a 10 4 rubber duck!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Huge changes on the GEFS - The next attempt officially underway as of now - expect a stonking suite.

image.thumb.png.9e86f1b98bb95c9e0e68d6317225ee0b.png

Well yes but it is only one set of ensembles IF GFS continues that tomorrow it wills tart building a cold signal from around day 9/10 from a Northerly.

The Atlantic is a lot more amplified than the 12z set but might all change again tomorrow.

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There is some SERIOUS- carbon copy of what others have posted in here.

Not 2 mention..

Some very over the top...handbag like gfuqhgfpjhing!!..

Its non worthy..

We are in the game-and its nailed down 2 some minor adjustments!!!

Daft..

And we are on the cliff edge of falling into some news making weather.

Some want the anchor note..on the bbc 10-0 clock news...

Keep watching...

 

 

Is this directed at me?..

I was just putting my input like anyone else on this forum..

The 10 o clock news bit that is..

Edited by CSC
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Might be the S word then. Either way, it's been filtered. 

Hi all, just got in and I see there's a new thread :oldgrin:  except I can't get access to this new thread via my iPad, it states  (The URL WAS BLOCKED BY CONTENT FILTER) Any idea ???

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Mucka said:

Well yes but it is only one set of ensembles IF GFS continues that tomorrow it wills tart building a cold signal from around day 9/10 from a Northerly.

The Atlantic is a lot more amplified than the 12z set but might all change again tomorrow.

Come on - we can do it Will's Tart - who is she anyway?

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

Looking through the eps clusters - content to pull the curtains on any easterly later this week.  We move onto the rinse an repeat of the upcoming week with a cold zonal sinking into a euro trough through week 2. 

And the stuff about the USA storm not being initiated correctly ...... really ??.

Edited by bluearmy
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Hi all, just got in and I see there's a new thread :oldgrin:  except I can't get access to this new thread via my iPad, it states  (The URL WAS BLOCKED BY CONTENT FILTER) Any idea ???

 

Well you managed to quote my post OK  

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Well you managed to quote my post OK  

Via my desktop, phones okay also,  :oldgood:

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking through the eps clusters - content to pull the curtains on any easterly later this week.  We move onto the rinse an repeat of the upcoming week with a cold zonal sinking into a euro trough through week 2. 

And the stuff about the USA storm not being initiated correctly ...... really ??.

The USA storm information taken directly from various USA forecasters 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

They can't be predicted more than 24-48 hrs in advance with any degree of confidence... But they can show in a hypothetical N'ly on a FI chart. What mechanism would stop a model modelling a predicted polar low? 

People only say they can't be forecast in advance because of their spontaneous nature of development. Not because they CAN'T physically be shown in the modelling. 

Ok, I've only experienced one, few years ago, and it was actually just picked up by one of the models, I recall tracking it on here, can't remember when it was.   Maybe one of you folks knows?

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Via my desktop, phones okay also,  :oldgood:

Can't help. Never bought an Apple product in my life lol. 

Just throw it in the bin maybe?  

Edited by CreweCold
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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

They can't be predicted more than 24-48 hrs in advance with any degree of confidence... But they can show in a hypothetical N'ly on a FI chart. What mechanism would stop a model modelling a predicted polar low? 

People only say they can't be forecast in advance because of their spontaneous nature of development. Not because they CAN'T physically be shown in the modelling. 

I remember an old Rob McElwee late night weatherview forecast, I think it must have been Jan 2004, and he said conditions looked ripe for polar low development and that it looked like there was one likely to form and sweep southwards....I think it was Jan 28th that most of the country saw a sudden blizzard sweep southwards and drop a few inches of snow. If I’m honest I can’t remember if that was a true polar low or if it was just a very active trough, but I remember thinking at the time, well played Rob!

But that was very much the exception, otherwise they’re difficult not only to forecast from further out than a couple of days but also to predict the track of.

There was another instance I can remember in the 00’s (no idea of the year) where a polar low formed very unexpectedly and swept down the eastern side of Scotland, the met office hurried out warnings for much of the eastern side of the UK, and I remember being sat on this forum tracking it, and watching as it curved westwards and ended up hitting the midlands and the westcountry just at rush hour, much to my disappointment.

Very difficult beasts indeed.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

So, the scene is set, finally...

Cold north westerly followed by a holding ridge- followed by the jet heading on a jolly into Europe and N Atlantic height rises to the holy Grail...

Thats how this is  going to pan out with a bit of luck..

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

So, the scene is set, finally...

Cold north westerly followed by a holding ridge- followed by the jet heading on a jolly into Europe and N Atlantic height rises to the holy Grail...

Thats how this is  going to pan out with a bit of luck..

Till the 0z

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So, the scene is set, finally...

Cold north westerly followed by a holding ridge- followed by the jet heading on a jolly into Europe and N Atlantic height rises to the holy Grail...

Thats how this is  going to pan out with a bit of luck..

Admire your optimism.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowking said:

I remember an old Rob McElwee late night weatherview forecast, I think it must have been Jan 2004, and he said conditions looked ripe for polar low development and that it looked like there was one likely to form and sweep southwards....I think it was Jan 28th that most of the country saw a sudden blizzard sweep southwards and drop a few inches of snow. If I’m honest I can’t remember if that was a true polar low or if it was just a very active trough, but I remember thinking at the time, well played Rob!

But that was very much the exception, otherwise they’re difficult not only to forecast from further out than a couple of days but also to predict the track of.

There was another instance I can remember in the 00’s (no idea of the year) where a polar low formed very unexpectedly and swept down the eastern side of Scotland, the met office hurried out warnings for much of the eastern side of the UK, and I remember being sat on this forum tracking it, and watching as it curved westwards and ended up hitting the midlands and the westcountry just at rush hour, much to my disappointment.

Very difficult beasts indeed.

They can surely be modelled at range though, if incorrectly??

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)

@TEITS Did the seagulls ever show any hint of an Easterly for next week? I know there was an old saying in that part of England.

@Fiona Robertson What signs are the horses currently giving off regarding our cold spell for Scotland that is approaching? 

@Bill .Farkin Which way are the grebes facing?

Plus I am hearing from a reliable source that it is going to snow in Carlisle on Tuesday. 

I am starting to think the questions above are the way forward regarding future weather as the ECM, GFS and UKMO daily output are making my brain melt! 

 

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

They can surely be modelled at range though, if incorrectly??

Of course they can lol. There's nothing to stop a model predicting a polar low. Especially given the increased modelling resolution these days. 

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