Cold hunt - models and chat

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Trying to remember, but hasn't the ec46 been progging this kind of pattern for a number of weeks for this timescale?

Yes. In fact, when the daily models were showing the easterly flow for this coming week, I did think that it seemed a week or so early compared to the ECM46 day model.

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Simply put because it's clear (even to myself) the effects the SSW is having and likely to have as we head into Feb.

I have witnessed many failed E,lys in the past. However this isn't one of those situations when the failed E,ly is being replaced by a postive AO and well established Polar Vortex. Appears to me the AO could well become strongly negative and its more of a case of when rather than if the cold spell we all crave arrives.

Thankyou teits 

my thoughts exactly.

normally the famous failed easterly’s vanish from the runs and that’s the end and we are straight into Atlantic driven weather

this is so different 

this is still on ,

maybe not immediately but imminent like you say.

great model watching this.

[markw2680]

Yeah all the good charts again at a billion hours away, the point is until they actually get below 96 hours and actually verify then they may aswel not be there. Yeah good to look at but what’s the point unless for once it’s the real deal or the big long road to another fail. Anyway I ent a doom person so yes bring it on along with the snow shovels 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, CSC said:

Many do think the the low coming out the USA is further N/NW than forecast. This could have huge ramifications for the UK.

The METO fax charts tonight represent that. They have, for the first time in sometime, amended their OWN model charts due to this uncertainty on our weather. 

There is no certainty we still won't get the E/NE next week. We haven't even sorted the next 96h never mind whats after. 

There is still that chance everything will change tomorrow and this it not out of the realms of possibility. 

Tomorrow we go again!

Can you advise where and how. ??

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

3rd feb I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

 

come on now

I don't know what 1'm  means im afraid????

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

47 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I suspect that we are entering a rinse an repeat type scenario here. So probably we will see another slider followed by another easterly chance down the line - but will it stick?

We want rinse, repeat AND improve though Ed.....let’s see.....I actually like where ECM heads....and 18z

 

BFTP

[Mucka]

GEFS 120 mean

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't know what 1'm  means im afraid????

Swear filter for the F word I think

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mucka said:

GEFS 120 mean

 

Yes, looking much better for longer term prospects.

[TEITS]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Can you advise where and how. ??

I just checked this on radar/Sat and the low appears to be centred exactly where the 18Z GFS has this i.e Tennessee

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Swear filter for the F word I think

No - i said that the other day and it came up something else -- i know lemon = poo these days where it used to be onions.

[snefnug]

13 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Trying to remember, but hasn't the ec46 been progging this kind of pattern for a number of weeks for this timescale?

Looks like something Ghostbuster team would be after.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - i said that the other day and it came up something else -- i know lemon = poo these days where it used to be onions.

Might be the S word then. Either way, it's been filtered. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by CreweCold

[CSC]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can you advise where and how. ??

Yes, of course. 

Many USA forecasters have spoken and tweeted at how the low is more N/NW than forecast and this has lead to warmer temperatures for them. 

This effects us as you may know because the direction of that low coming out of the USA may have a direct impact on the position of the jet, which then has a huge effect on our weather in the future

 

[Johnp]

9 minutes ago, CSC said:

Many do think the the low coming out the USA is further N/NW than forecast. This could have huge ramifications for the UK.

The METO fax charts tonight represent that. They have, for the first time in sometime, amended their OWN model charts due to this uncertainty on our weather. 

There is no certainty we still won't get the E/NE next week. We haven't even sorted the next 96h never mind whats after. 

There is still that chance everything will change tomorrow and this it not out of the realms of possibility. 

Tomorrow we go again!

I think it looks different from the current runs because it hasn't been updated yet?

[Bristawl Si]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

POLAR LOW ALERT!!

!

I'm not sure "polar lows" show up in future model output; dont they form almost at the last minute? Like within a few hours before 'hitting'? So no model would pick them up until hours before impact? I could be wrong (likely)

[CSC]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I just checked this on radar/Sat and the low appears to be centred exactly where the 18Z GFS has this i.e Tennessee

The radar is very difficult to compare to the modelled output as there can be differences. 

This is new information for the GFS18z regarding the position of the low. Not only this, it is the pub run and as we know it can be unreliable.

I think tomorrow we will have greater information on which direction our weather will be heading and t96 will be ever more clearer and finally concluded.

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

POLAR LOW ALERT!!

!

You're certainly excitable, Feb, but no it isn't a polar low, they can't be predicted that far in advance. they crop up out of nowhere  with an arctic maritime airflow.

[Mokidugway]

8 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Yeah all the good charts again at a billion hours away, the point is until they actually get below 96 hours and actually verify then they may aswel not be there. Yeah good to look at but what’s the point unless for once it’s the real deal or the big long road to another fail. Anyway I ent a doom person so yes bring it on along with the snow shovels 

That's 1140 years do the models go out that far

[Mucka]

For the bitter clingers or eternal optimists - on  GEFS 18z we are down to just 2 members that have an East flow at 168 hours and they are a bit flat but cold.

 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Mucka

[emmett garland]

Well said Catacol and nice and positive too.

[Weathizard]

I’ll have whatever Peturb1 had please, still not amazing but at least this option is still on the table.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Weathizard

[feb1991blizzard]

Huge changes on the GEFS - The next attempt officially underway as of now - expect a stonking suite.

[CSC]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I think it looks different from the current runs because it hasn't been updated yet?

Apologies. I mean from what was previously forecasted not what is currently forecasted. 

Please refer to this tweet as an example:

Tomorrow by even 6z we will have a much better idea on what will happen next week. The models may not have taken in the new information yet as mentioned before.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You're certainly excitable, Feb, but no it isn't a polar low, they can't be predicted that far in advance. they crop up out of nowhere  with an arctic maritime airflow.

They can't be predicted more than 24-48 hrs in advance with any degree of confidence... But they can show in a hypothetical N'ly on a FI chart. What mechanism would stop a model modelling a predicted polar low? 

People only say they can't be forecast in advance because of their spontaneous nature of development. Not because they CAN'T physically be shown in the modelling.