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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Chino, are you surprised that the recent ssw is still not bearing fruit in any model? It seems to be a winter of deep cold being around the corner. Only problem is the corner keeps moving

If you look at the NH profile then that doesn’t add up with the disturbed trop vortex. So the SSW is having an effect but not for us.....yet

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Certainly better than it’s 12z friend, not that it took much that was horrible all things considered. It’s a real mess though... wondering if there is actually any point looking at the models at the minute, it’s a s**tstorm

5C7F253E-E116-4A3A-929C-2FEF2C45601C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And what an odd shaped PV?

image.thumb.png.09c340e9b4bf6041e38cac5611306457.png

High pressure nosing into the continent?

We will be in Bartlett territory on this run at this rate?!  

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Nuts. The amount of inter run changes are just bananas. Like the polar vortex!

I'm taking a break for 2 days. Only looking at the charts in hi res for Monday/Tuesday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

So below average, ECM not as awful as 00z but leads again down the line to a big PV displacement at end of the month.  The way next week looks it can’t be trusted....but its the preferred route and would lead to our pot of cold.

was there ever an easterly?  Clearly not.....this winter should ne called the t240 winter... 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well, following Weathizard's post above, there is some interesting consistency between the ECM and GFS at 210.  Back to potential slider territory?

ECM image.thumb.png.0b6c257e3a6b0b59d8a6ab3da789a395.png GFS image.thumb.png.e1614c35c5bbcc8681b8677a23a0f23d.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Just now, edinburgh_1992 said:

Models all over the place, but almost all point towards a very mild turn in the weather next week.

Will be interesting to see what happens after. Will it be HP or wind and rain?

What are you on about? Very mild?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

879187824_gfsnh-0-192(2).thumb.png.1925534f30be11da3a943306c909e8b3.png

Looking at the changes in the PV from the last run, it is far more disorganised and maybe we are seeing background signals finally hit the trop, possibly a quick response to a slow response? If yes, things could change fast.

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