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Roger J Smith

February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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4.3c here to the 15th, 0.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

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5.1 to the 15th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 5.1 to the 15th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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The 06z would have the CET on about 5.8C to the 20th, then 6.8C to the 25th, with the period of the 21st to the 25th averaging about 10.5C.

Potential for a few daily records to go in the next 10 days, with tomorrow likely to be the first close call. The current record high mean for the 17th is 10.7C from 1878, while the GFS forecasts the mean for the 17th to be a little over 10C

 

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Sunny Sheffield 4.6C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 29.5mm 49.1% of the monthly normal.

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February is the third longest stretch without a daily record high in the CET series (back to 2012 when a daily high was last established). June goes back to 2006 and August had a tie in 2008, a full record last set there in 2003. The other months have all been more recent (Jan 2016, Mar 2017, Apr 2018, May 2018, July 2018, Sep 2016, Oct 2018, Nov 2015 and Dec 2015). 

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Sunny Sheffield at 4.8C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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5.3 to the 16th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 5.3 to the 16th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Does anyone have the record daily maxes for the next 10 days? Even if the all time record holds, got to be a decent shot at some daily records falling.

Also probably very little rain from now on.

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7 hours ago, kold weather said:

Does anyone have the record daily maxes for the next 10 days? Even if the all time record holds, got to be a decent shot at some daily records falling.

Also probably very little rain from now on.

The daily records are always posted in the CET threads on the first but here's the portion from now to end of month (excluding 29th, there's one record that's safe anyway). 

DATE __ Record high __ record low _________ 1981-2010 (cum) _____ highest and lowest running CET

17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.8 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.4 (1895)

21 Feb ... 10.6 (1813) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855) 
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.3 (1855&1895) 

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.1 (1855&1895&1947)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947)

________________________________________________

The highest daily value in February overall is 12.8 (4th, 2004). Somewhat surprisingly, any days that have reached 12.0 aside from 29th (1960) were in the first half of the month. 1899, 1998 and 2004 had them. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Looking at today's model runs there must a real chance the Feb CET mean record is going to fall. 7.9C I believe?

Edited by West is Best
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5.6 to the 17th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 5.6 to the 17th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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6 hours ago, West is Best said:

Looking at today's model runs there must a real chance the Feb CET mean record is going to fall. 7.9C I believe?

Would require about 11.7C daily just to beat it.

Only 1 day in February 1998 actually recorded higher than that.

It doesn't look likely, It would require a truely extraordinary spell. 

 

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On 17/02/2019 at 11:49, kold weather said:

Does anyone have the record daily maxes for the next 10 days? Even if the all time record holds, got to be a decent shot at some daily records falling.

Also probably very little rain from now on.

Assuming you're referring to the record warm maxima and not the record warm daily means, below are the forecast maxima (rounded to nearest 2/10ths) and records for the next 10 days. Likely record breakers (less than 1C off the record or greater than the record) are in bold

18th... 10.4C... Record = 15.0C
19th...  9.4C... Record = 13.5C
20th... 11.6C... Record = 14.1C
21st... 13.2C... Record = 13.2C
22nd...15.0C... Record = 13.9C
23rd... 15.2C... Record = 15.9C
24th... 15.4C... Record = 14.1C
25th... 14.6C... Record = 14.1C
26th... 14.4C... Record = 13.3C
27th... 13.8C... Record = 15.4C

Only 8 previous February maxima have been 15C or higher, and no year has recorded more than 2, so the current forecast is quite exceptional. 

Also, so far this month we have a provisional record max for the 16th with 12.7C, beating the old record of 12.2C.

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50 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Would require about 11.7C daily just to beat it.

Only 1 day in February 1998 actually recorded higher than that.

It doesn't look likely, It would require a truely extraordinary spell. 

 

From the 06z I estimate the CET will finish around 7.2C so not too far away...

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Sunny Sheffield at 5.1C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

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5.7 to the 18th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 5.7 to the 18th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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sunny Edmonton is still massively below normal at -25.8c to the 18th February..might reach a tropical -5c today.

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CET forecast to the end of the month

1906z.thumb.JPG.003eb9ed42e8b5b99134e230403c3d56.JPG

So, the graph above has the max and min, both provisional and forecast, in red and blue respectively. The mean daily CET is in green, and the cumulative average is in grey/white (with light red and light blue for the likely upper and lower ranges). Finally, the 81-10 rolling average CET is in orange.

At the moment, the 06z GFS has a finish of about 7.0C and I estimate an range of 7.5C to 6.1C. The low end is further from the forecast as the remainder of the month is likely to have several days close to record highs, so it's unlikely the GFS is over estimating temperatures by a lot. On the other hand, a subtle change could cause the final few days to be much cooler than currently forecast, hence the potential for finishing quite a bit lower than the 7.0C mean.

I'll play around with a few formats and designs for these over the next few weeks. Let me know what alterations or additions might make them more useful. For example, I could remove the max and min and replace them with the record high and low averages for each day, or a top 10 and bottom 10 value, etc. 

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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On 18/02/2019 at 14:18, Quicksilver1989 said:

From the 06z I estimate the CET will finish around 7.2C so not too far away...

Yes it's a long shot to break the record but I wouldn't be surprised if the MetO adjust the final figure upwards so anything within around 0.3C is going to be close. And there are some exceptionally mild (even warm) temps showing up on the latest runs. We might see 18C in the south this week.

Edited by West is Best

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20 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.7 to the 18th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 5.7 to the 18th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Amazing for the modern...winter, many times I guess too low, I underestimate 'winter' mild

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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5.8 to the 19th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 5.8 to the 19th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Latest forecast.

 20_06zA.thumb.JPG.788e5287d6359d6d47eb7ce8c847a0ea.JPG 20_06zb.thumb.JPG.f9548c4cfa256b37dd1cce29554b0e14.JPG

Same graph as yesterday first, and a new one with the 2019 mean, 81-10 mean, record high and low, and top and bottom 3, and 10.

Latest 06z is a tad warmer than yesterday, with a final value of 7.1C forecast, and an upper and lower range of 7.5 and 6.5C (all before corrections). 
We will come close to breaking some records for the next week, starting tomorrow, when the mean CET is forecast to equal the record high value for the day of 10.6C.

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On 30/01/2019 at 12:53, Man With Beard said:

3.5C

Guess I was spending too much time lamppost watching at the end of last month and not enough time model watching...

No offence intended but when you're behind @Lettucing Gutted in the standings, you know you're in big trouble ;)

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Sunny Sheffield at 5.4C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 30.6mm 50.9% of the monthly average.

Looking like we will finish around 6.4C the warmest since 2002.

Edited by The PIT
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One of the odd things about warmest February 1779 is that it no longer holds any of the 28 daily records, it held on to 10.0 (13th) until that was obliterated by 12.0 in 1998. Warmest January 1916 also has no daily records. On the other side of the ledger, July 1948 which set three daily records including the warmest day of all, still finished below normal. 

So if Feb 2019 manages to finish around 7 as appears likely, then the recent winter that this most resembles would be 1994-95 when the CET values were 6.4, 4.8 and 6.5, tied with 2016-17 which had 6.0, 4.0 and 6.1.

These are the other close analogues by total departure from (6.9, 4.0, 7.0). 

Winter ______ Dec _ Jan _ Feb ___ Total difference (abs)

1738-39 _____ 6.1 _ 4.0 _ 6.8 ____ 1.0

1789-90 _____ 6.1 _ 4.3 _ 6.6 ____ 1.5

1733-34 _____ 7.6 _ 4.3 _ 6.4 ____ 1.6

1994-95 _____ 6.4 _ 4.8 _ 6.5 ____ 1.8

2016-17 _____ 6.0 _ 4.0 _ 6.1 ____ 1.8

1821-22 _____ 6.4 _ 4.7 _ 6.3 ____ 1.9

1942-43 _____ 6.7 _ 4.9 _ 6.1 ____ 2.0

1913-14 _____ 5.1 _ 3.7 _ 6.8 ____ 2.3 (Dec is most of the differential here)

1868-69 _____ 7.2 _ 5.6 _ 7.5 ____ 2.4*

1749-50 _____ 4.7 _ 4.0 _ 6.7 ____ 2.5 (Dec is most of the differential here)

1862-63 _____ 6.5 _ 4.9 _ 5.8 ____ 2.5

______________________________________

*This value moves up the table by a relative 0.2 deg for each 0.1 that Feb 2019 exceeds 7.0. It can go as high as second for 7.5 or higher but cannot catch the leader 1738-39. It falls to last place for a 6.9 finish and would be replaced by other winters for 6.8 or lower. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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