Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

The run of February's between 1867 and 1872 was incredible.  The average mean CET was over 6C.  That included a year in the middle (1870) which was 2.8C,  It's been over 20 years since we had one colder than that!

Is it likely there were daily records set then which aren't recognised today?  Or would it have been relatively warm all month long without frosts that produced a CETs of 7.5, and two of 6.9C in that period? 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
12 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

The run of February's between 1867 and 1872 was incredible.  The average mean CET was over 6C.  That included a year in the middle (1870) which was 2.8C,  It's been over 20 years since we had one colder than that!

Is it likely there were daily records set then which aren't recognised today?  Or would it have been relatively warm all month long without frosts that produced a CETs of 7.5, and two of 6.9C in that period? 

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
10 hours ago, Timmytour said:

With no question of February falling below a mean CET of 6C now, attention turns towards December to see if this decade can equal the longstanding record for the most winter months registering a CET of 6C or above.

February will make it nine so far for the decade 1730 to 1739 – and with just one winter month to go there is only one chance to equal the record of ten registered in the decade 1730-1739, a record that has stood on its own for nearly three centuries!!

 

What will be will be, but personally I hope the last Winter month and December of this decade is more like the first Winter month of this decade (Jan 2010) or the first December of this decade than the predominantly mild and snowless ones we've mostly endured.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
10 hours ago, Timmytour said:

With no question of February falling below a mean CET of 6C now, attention turns towards December to see if this decade can equal the longstanding record for the most winter months registering a CET of 6C or above.

February will make it nine so far for the decade 1730 to 1739 – and with just one winter month to go there is only one chance to equal the record of ten registered in the decade 1730-1739, a record that has stood on its own for nearly three centuries!!

 

During the 2010s the Februarys have tended to be either well above average (6*C+), close to average (around 4*C), and three have been below average (closer to 3*C), with only Feb 2016 seeing a CET anywhere between 4.1 and 6.0.  Pretty remarkable that four Februarys in the 2010s will have recorded a 6+ CET, with only one February in the 2010s recording a CET anywhere between 4.1 and 6.0.  Although the lack of a really cold February still goes on, we have at least during the 2010s managed three relatively cold Februarys, all three of which were colder than any January in the 2010s with the exception of 2010.  

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

Very much like many of the 30 years or so since 1988 have been, I think also that the mid Victorian era was poor at times for cold weather in February, so long before the days of global warming, February still went through a poor time for cold for a number of years.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
On 25/02/2019 at 08:57, Weather-history said:

I don't think it will surpass February 2008 as far as sunshine goes except  maybe at the local level but it could be in the top 10 maybe top 5 sunniest Februarys for England or England and Wales.

Only February 2017 since and including February 2014 has been duller than average for England. Februarys 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 and now 2019 have been sunnier than average to varying degrees. 

Manston looks like it could get 150hrs of sunshine this month. Quite a number of stations are going to be 100+hrs this month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yesterday's maximum is down as 18.1C
That's equal to the average maximum of June 2013

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

6.9 to the 26th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 26th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

is above 7c looking likely?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
23 hours ago, Timmytour said:

The run of February's between 1867 and 1872 was incredible.  The average mean CET was over 6C.  That included a year in the middle (1870) which was 2.8C,  It's been over 20 years since we had one colder than that!

Is it likely there were daily records set then which aren't recognised today?  Or would it have been relatively warm all month long without frosts that produced a CETs of 7.5, and two of 6.9C in that period? 

 

Daily mean CET runs from 1772 to present, but max and min date back only to 1878, so it depends which one you had in mind. If you want to see the daily records for mean daily CET, I have two places where I have listed them. One is for each month on about the first day of each thread, which would be on page four of this month. Or for the full annual set, go to the Historical Weather subforum and look for my thread about halfway down page one listing all kinds of CET data including the records. I recently added tables that include records since 1940 for comparison. I am not aware of any accessible listings of the daily max and min extremes or the UK extremes that other people sometimes quote. Perhaps they could link us to those. 

So yes, records from 1869 are recognized if they are daily or monthly. Feb 1869 was second warmest February (7.5) and holds one daily record (10.6 on 7th). Feb 1779 was warmest (7.9) and lost its most durable daily record to 1998 on the 13th (10.0 being overtaken by 12.0). So that month has no surviving daily records. The oldest surviving record is 1794 (14th, 10.2). 

Last year 1st of March broke a record for cold with -3.8 from 1785 (-3.5) after the 28th of February missed by a fraction (same year held that record of -3.8, last year hit -3.6). That is the only daily March record for cold since 1965 set two (2nd, 3rd). The most recent February daily record for cold was in 1986 (11th hit -4.2, old record was -3.8 from 1784). The day before was colder (-4.6) but ran into a stronger old record of -6.2. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

is above 7c looking likely?

Maybe before adjustments. The provisional 6.9 to 26th is actually 6.86 rounded up. That would mean that two days with an average of 11 on 27th and 28th would turn that into a monthly value of 7.13. It may not average that warm and that could be adjusted down, so I think 6.9 or 7.0 more likely finishing points. 

The temperature has not even been 7 C where I live since before Christmas. 

List of the top 31 Februaries (CET)

1. 1779 (7.9)

2. 1869 (7.5)

t3. 1990, 1998 (7.3)

5. 1794 (7.2)

t6. 1903, 1945 (7.1)

8. 2002 (7.0)

t9. 1867, 1872, 1961 (6.9)

t12. 1739, 1914, 1926 (6.8)

t15. 1702, 1750, 1997 (6.7)

18. 1790 (6.6)

t19. 1815, 1918, 1995 (6.5)

t22. 1732, 1734, 1817, 1826, 1846, 1850, 2011 (6.4)

t29. 1822, 1868, 2000 (6.3)

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.7C  +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 31.7mm 52.7% of the monthly average.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Thanks Roger. It was the daily max I was thinking of. Wondering how likely it was there were 20c plus temps in those warm Febs between 1867 and 1872

Edited by Timmytour
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Thanks Roger. It was the daily max I was thinking of. Wondering how likely it was there were 20c plus temps in those warm Febs between 1867 and 1872

I'd say exceptional maxima would have been reported and recorded somewhere if they occurred.
Most recording breaking mild winter months for here tend to get a greater contribution from southwesterly flows with higher minima than we've experienced, so record mean values may not represent the kind of maxima we've seen this month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Thanks Roger. It was the daily max I was thinking of. Wondering how likely it was there were 20c plus temps in those warm Febs between 1867 and 1872

My gut feeling if there is likely to have been a 20C+ in a previous February, it would be 1779. No temperatures of 20C were reported in any of those months.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

6.9 to the 27th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 26th & 27th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Today may only average around 7 C. If so the second half of the month will average 8.9, by far the warmest 15th-28th (or 15th-29th in leap years) on record. The top ten that are about to be pushed aside are:

t1. ___ 8.4 (1846)

t1. ___ 8.4 (1926)

 3. ___ 8.1 (1912) __ was 7.9 for 15th-28th

 4. ___ 8.0 (1779)

t5. ___ 7.9 (1794,1878, 1998)

t8. ___ 7.8 (1876, 2007, 2017) _ 1876 also 7.8 for 15th-28th

______________________________________________

This mild spell will probably set one daily record (21st is provisionally 11.4, 1813 loses its record with 10.6).

In my calculation of warmest weeks, here's how weeks ending on each date starting 21st Feb will likely measure up ...

Week

ending ___ warmest _____ 2nd warmest __ 3rd warmest __ 4th warmest

21 Feb ___ 8.77 2019 ____ 8.70 1998 ____ 8.57 2017 ____8.47 1867 _____ 

22 Feb ___ 9.09 2019 ____ 9.01 2017 ____ 8.43 1876 ____8.21 1998 _____ 

23 Feb ___ 9.30 2019 ____ 9.04 2017 ____ 8.86 1990 ____8.31 1862 _____ 

24 Feb ___ 9.53 1990 ____ 9.24 2019 ____ 8.67 1953 ____8.57 1926 _____ 

25 Feb ___ 9.67 1990 ____ 9.33 2019 ____ 9.21 1926 ____9.03 1846 _____ 

26 Feb ___ 9.76 2019 ____ 9.63 1846 ____ 9.49 1990 ____9.29 1926 _____ 

27 Feb ___10.07 1846____ 9.74 2019 ____ 9.53 1926 ____8.89 1953 _____ 

28 Feb ___10.39 1846____ 9.24 1926 ____ 9.11 2019 ____8.80 2012 _____ 

____________________________________________________________

I will edit this post after final numbers are posted. But it looks like this February's most notable achievement will be sustained warmth in terms of weeks and second half of the month. For sustained warmth above 10 or even 9.8 it will not crack the list already posted. 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Today may only average around 7 C. If so the second half of the month will average 8.9, by far the warmest 15th-28th (or 15th-29th in leap years) on record. The top ten that are about to be pushed aside are:

t1. ___ 8.4 (1846)

t1. ___ 8.4 (1926)

 3. ___ 8.1 (1912) __ was 7.9 for 15th-28th

 4. ___ 8.0 (1779)

t5. ___ 7.9 (1794,1878, 1998)

t8. ___ 7.8 (1876, 2007, 2017) _ 1876 also 7.8 for 15th-28th

______________________________________________

This mild spell will probably set one daily record (21st is provisionally 11.4, 1813 loses its record with 10.6).

In my calculation of warmest weeks, here's how weeks ending on each date starting 21st Feb will likely measure up ...

Week

ending ___ warmest _____ 2nd warmest __ 3rd warmest __ 4th warmest

21 Feb ___ 8.77 2019 ____ 8.70 1998 ____ 8.57 2017 ____8.47 1867 _____ 

22 Feb ___ 9.09 2019 ____ 9.01 2017 ____ 8.43 1876 ____8.21 1998 _____ 

23 Feb ___ 9.30 2019 ____ 9.04 2017 ____ 8.86 1990 ____8.31 1862 _____ 

24 Feb ___ 9.53 1990 ____ 9.24 2019 ____ 8.67 1953 ____8.57 1926 _____ 

25 Feb ___ 9.67 1990 ____ 9.33 2019 ____ 9.21 1926 ____9.03 1846 _____ 

26 Feb ___ 9.76 2019 ____ 9.63 1846 ____ 9.49 1990 ____9.29 1926 _____ 

27 Feb ___10.07 1846____ 9.74 2019 ____ 9.53 1926 ____8.89 1953 _____ 

28 Feb ___10.39 1846____ 9.24 1926 ____ 9.11 2019 ____8.80 2012 _____ 

____________________________________________________________

I will edit this post after final numbers are posted. But it looks like this February's most notable achievement will be sustained warmth in terms of weeks and second half of the month. For sustained warmth above 10 or even 9.8 it will not crack the list already posted. 

 

 

Although the monthly CET series dates back to 1659, we only have the daily CET values from 1772.  Certainly the second half of February 2018 (likely to come in around 8.9 to 9.0) will be the warmest in the daily CET record since 1772, beating the old record (by 0.5*C) of 8.4 in 1846 and 1926.  That said the first half of February 1869 had a CET of 8.8, so I would say that this was as exceptional as the second half of February 2019 has been.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

The calendar may say that we are just finishing the month of February, but weather and climate wise have we really had a February?  How can anyone possibly say that we have had a February this year, instead that we have suddenly skipped from January to March or even April.  The CET for this February is very likely to fall between the average for March and April, and the exceptionally warm second half of this February would be very typical of an average decent fortnight during April.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
13 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although the monthly CET series dates back to 1659, we only have the daily CET values from 1772.  Certainly the second half of February 2018 (likely to come in around 8.9 to 9.0) will be the warmest in the daily CET record since 1772, beating the old record (by 0.5*C) of 8.4 in 1846 and 1926.  That said the first half of February 1869 had a CET of 8.8, so I would say that this was as exceptional as the second half of February 2019 has been.

The second half of the month has also been very sunny, which makes the CET all the more remarkable. Minima have been relatively low, particularly in the last week or so. I think it's the sustained run of maximum temperatures above 14C in the CET zone that has been most incredible. 7 consecutive days in these parts and virtually unbroken sunshine on many of those days. Also the first time I've ever witnessed 19C in these parts in February.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The month has been placed at 6.7 (from 6.74) in the final data page over at CET tracking. The second half works out to 8.8 from this adjusted data, still the warmest 15th-28th on record. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the final mean CET for the month compared to the averages and records.

image.thumb.png.0f34149961eca6637feb147d2a6de4c6.png

The mean of 6.7C was 2.9C above the 61-90 average, and 2.3C above the 81-10 average. It was the 14th warmest on record.
We had 5 days in the top 10 warmest, one of which equaled a daily record, 11.2C on the 21st. A total of 5 days were below the 81-10 average, the rest were above. The same with the 61-90 average.

Below is the same as above, but for the minima. 

image.thumb.png.16ccc47c1539069b23665dda5d6ca514.png

The minimum of 2.2C was 1.2C above the 61-90 average, and 0.8C above the 81-10 average. This is the 48th warmest on record.
There were no record breaking nor top 10 days. 
A total of 10 days (8 days) were below the 81-10 average (61-90), 2 equal (1 equal) and the rest were above.

Below is the same for the maxima
image.thumb.png.f0344a0876f8a350188e7339df3805c0.png

The maximum of 11.3C was 4.8C above the 61-90 average and 3.9C above the 81-10 average. It was the warmest maximum on record, beating the previous record of 10.7C set in 1998.
A total of 11 days were in the top 10. Of those, 1 equaled a daily record while 8 days set new daily records, including a run of 7 days from the 21st to the 27th.
February 2019 beat the record highest maximum twice - first becoming the first maximum above 17C with 17.7C on the 25th, before also becoming the first February with a maximum above 18C, with 18.4C on the 26th. 
4 (3) days were below the 81-10 (61-90) average while the rest were above.

 

Extra random stats:
With a minimum of 1.2C and an maximum of 18.4C, the diurnal range for the 26th was the largest on record for February at 17.2C. This beats the previous record of 16.6C from the 27th 1891.
The difference between the average min and average max for the month was also the largest on record, at 9.1C. This beats the previous record of 8.5C from 1891.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

The question I'm asking myself is why are some records are more resilient than others?

Take the top 10 warmest of each month and how many have occurred since WWII.

January: 4

February: 4

March: 7

April: 4

May: 2

June: 2

July: 5

August: 7

September: 4

October: 10 (3 joint 10th)

November: 5

December: 3

Top 3 for July and August are modern, yet the top 3 for May and June, the most recent of which could be described as  very early Victorian.

Collecting a top 10 place for October seems a synch, but the month previous, September, has only 4. The earliest October record now left in the top 10 is 1831 and yet September has 4 in the top 10 that ealier than 1831.

Junes top 10 looks ancient, most modern is 1976 then back to 1970, most of them are way back.

 

Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The question I'm asking myself is why are some records are more resilient than others?

Take the top 10 warmest of each month and how many have occurred since WWII.

January: 4

February: 4

March: 7

April: 4

May: 2

June: 2

July: 5

August: 7

September: 4

October: 10 (3 joint 10th)

November: 5

December: 3

Top 3 for July and August are modern, yet the top 3 for May and June, the most recent of which could be described as  very early Victorian.

Collecting a top 10 place for October seems a synch, but the month previous, September, has only 4. The earliest October record now left in the top 10 is 1831 and yet September has 4 in the top 10 that ealier than 1831.

Junes top 10 looks ancient, most modern is 1976 then back to 1970, most of them are way back.

 

Peaks are just before and after the Spring and Autumn equinoxes respectively, suggesting that the warmth is both arriving sooner and departing later, than before...Given that similar things are happening, in temperate zones, all over the planet, it's an anticipated sign of global warming - as warmer conditions expand north and south?

Unless, of course, one is a devout CCD; in which case, the fact that it was colder than average in Calgary, last Thursday, proves incontrovertibly that the Earth is, in fact, cooling!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...