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Roger J Smith

February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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CET averages and extremes for February

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
 7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

 7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 7.0 ... 2002

 6.7 ... 1997

 6.5 ... 1995

 6.4 ... 2011

 6.3 ... 2000

 6.2 ... 2014
 6.1 ... 2017

 5.9 ... 1989
 5.8 ... 2007

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004, 2008

 5.3 ... 1999

 5.0 ... warmest 30-year average (4.96) 1988-2017

 4.9 ... 1988, 2016 ... mean for 1989-2018

 4.8 ... 1982 and mean for 1991-2018
 4.7 ... mean for 2001-2018

 4.6 ... 1993
 4.4 ... 2001 and mean for 1981-2010

 4.3 ... 2005

 4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
 4.1 ... 2009

 4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and 2015

 3.9 ... mean for 1659-2018 (all 360 years) -- 3.88 -- and 2003
 3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and 2012

 3.7 ... 2006

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.3 ... 1984

 3.2 ... 1994, 2013

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700 and for 2018

 2.8 ... 2010

 2.5 ... coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) and 1996

 2.1 ... 1985

 1.7 ... 1983

 1.5 ... 1991

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-3.2 ... running CET by 20th 1855 (!!)

-4.3 ... running CET mid-month 1895 (!!)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Thursday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Sunday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

only the Hadley EWP used this contest year.

 

Wettest ... ... ... ...158.6 (1833)

__ recent ... ... ... 143.2 (1990)


1989-2018 avg ... 72.8

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5

 

__ recent ... ... ... 13.8 (1993)

Driest ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 (1891)

____________________________________________________________

2018 was 52.8 mm, 2017 was 72.0 and 2016 was 80.0. 

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Thursday 31st January 

Cold-very cold north easterly with snow showers. 

February precipitation  97.7mm. 

Hopefully all snow melt 😎 to boost up our low annual total

Febunary mean temp 2.8 

Edited by icykev
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48 minutes ago, icykev said:

Thursday 31st January 

Cold-very cold north easterly with snow showers. 

February precipitation  97.7mm. 

Hopefully all snow melt 😎 to boost up our low annual total

For the temperature (C.E.T.) side of this contest, we need an average for February. 

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Lol. I'm always rubbish at these so I might as well go for something crazy. - 1.5c please

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4.3c and 20mm

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Rest in pieces 'winter' 2018/2019!  :oldsad:  10C    Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C February in 2018.  Out with a mild whimper...

Also very wet with 500mm of Atlantic garbage

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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7 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

 

Also very wet with 500mm

🤣

Are you Noah? 

Noah-Builds-the-Ark-Genesis-6.jpg

Edited by Weather-history
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don't often post in  here..but going for -0.2c as the CET

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4.0 and 70 mm please

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Lets have some fun:

3.9C, 105mm. Cool and cyclonic overall. blocking to the north/north-east keeping us in a broadly cyclonic flow for a fair chunk of the month. Some of that 105mm may come as snow.

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3.5c and 75 mm please

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4.6c 90 mm please 

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7.0C and 105.2mm for me please. 

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3.6C for me

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2.1c & 67mm please

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Going for 4.2C a cool start them a mild end to bring it up to normal. A dry month 50mm.

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February fill dyke the saying, going for one of wettest Feb's ever, nothing wintry at all, no high pressure what so ever

5.1C, & 137mm

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