February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

6.5 to the 23rd

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.5 to the 23rd

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley tracker stuck at 50 mm, I have updated the excel file for EWP scoring on a provisional basis for February (51 mm) which was the forecast of Let It Snow! (it didn't). There's a boatload of 50 mm forecasts separated by 0.1 points behind that one and plenty others between 40 and 60 mm, in general consensus looks to have done better than random normal values this month, assuming we stay in the 50-52 mm range. 

Blast from the Past remains in first place overall with Thundery Wintry Showers, Mulzy, weather-history and seaside60 completing the top five after three months (this would also be the winter seasonal order of finish).

Here's the file:

 

EWP20182019b.xlsx

Edited February 24, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

I don't think it will surpass February 2008 as far as sunshine goes except  maybe at the local level but it could be in the top 10 maybe top 5 sunniest Februarys for England or England and Wales.

Only February 2017 since and including February 2014 has been duller than average for England. Februarys 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 and now 2019 have been sunnier than average to varying degrees. 

Edited February 25, 2019 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

6.6 to the 24th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.6 to the 24th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

[Weather-history]

Could the CET monthly maximum for February be broken?

The minima have not be that spectacular.

[BornFromTheVoid]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Could the CET monthly maximum for February be broken?

The minima have not be that spectacular.

Pretty good chance of beating the mean max. Previous record was 10.7C in 1998, this month looks like finishing around 11.0C before corrections.

The single day max is a tougher job. That record also lies with 1998, with 16.4C on the 13th. Today and tomorrow have the best chance of beating that value.

[Methuselah]

In terms of weather-records 'living memory' has been pretty good to many on here:

The winters of 1963, 1979; the summers of 1975, '76, '89, '90, '95, 2003, '06, '13 and '18; umpteen all-time highs (including the famous 100F+) and the all-time UK low...There can't be that many records that haven't occurred since 1957...?

Edited February 25, 2019 by Ed Stone

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.5C +2.3C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged at 31.7mm 52.7% of monthly normal.

[The PIT]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Could the CET monthly maximum for February be broken?

The minima have not be that spectacular.

Six consecutive air frosts from the start of the month and there's been a few more cold nights in the south as well.

For Sunny Sheffield the average high is going to +3C at least while the low is 1.6C above normal at the moment. Could well finish +1.9C above normal.

The month here isn't going to be a record breaker but it's trying very hard.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

In terms of weather-records 'living memory' has been pretty good to many on here:

The winters of 1963, 1979; the summers of 1975, '76, '89, '90, '95, 2003, '06, '13 and '18; umpteen all-time highs (including the famous 100F+) and the all-time UK low...There can't be that many records that haven't occurred since 1957...?

For the UK population as a whole, 1963 is well before most people’s living memory. Even 1976 and 1979 must be before most people’s time now. Median age in the UK is 41, born 1977/78.

Although this forum probably does skew old.

Edited February 25, 2019 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

In terms of weather-records 'living memory' has been pretty good to many on here:

The winters of 1963, 1979; the summers of 1975, '76, '89, '90, '95, 2003, '06, '13 and '18; umpteen all-time highs (including the famous 100F+) and the all-time UK low...There can't be that many records that haven't occurred since 1957...?

as ever the summer of 1983 is forgotten 

[North-Easterly Blast]

The setup that we have now is very much a longer version of the pattern that occurred in the second week of February 2008, with the high in just the right position to draw up air from North Africa and night temperatures often fell away under clear skies.  In the second week of that month temperatures reached up to around 18*C in similar places to what have seen record highs today, combined with relatively cool nights.  In today's CET figure, it will not be the highest daily CET on record for February was it was chilly early this morning across a large part of the CET area.  Whereas in the exceptionally mild spell of mid February 1998 a long fetch tropical martime airmass from south of the Azores covered the UK to the north of a "Bartlett High" over France and Spain, and it saw sunny periods but with cloudy intervals at times, and overnight minima were also high during the mid Feb 1998 spell.

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

In terms of weather-records 'living memory' has been pretty good to many on here:

The winters of 1963, 1979; the summers of 1975, '76, '89, '90, '95, 2003, '06, '13 and '18; umpteen all-time highs (including the famous 100F+) and the all-time UK low...There can't be that many records that haven't occurred since 1957...?

Maybe barometric pressure and wind records would qualify. Certainly nothing to match the 922 mbs near Belfast on 8 Dec 1886, or the winds (and tidal surge in the Severn estuary) of the 1703 Great Storm. I suppose most would be content with the extremes of the 1987 and 1990 wind storms. 

In terms of warmest CET day, these are the ones that people reading this did not experience (I would imagine in all cases) ... 2/3 of the January events in 1834 and 1932. ... April 1775 ... May 1780 ... a few maybe June 1947 ... about the same few for July 1948 ... September 1906 ... November 1938. 

These are going to fall eventually, but 2015 was unable to dislodge November and last year offered up a second to April 1775. The other monthly extremes have been experienced at intervals of 3 years (1/3 Jan), 2 years (March, before that it had been 1777), 24 years (August), 34 years (October), and a little over 3 years now for December.

I think it's true to say that nobody reading this has experienced the coldest monthly value of mean daily CET, unless somebody is 101 or 102 here (April 1917 tied 1799). The rest of the crop of all-time coldest days would be 1838, 1816, 1845, 1799/1917, 1861, 1816, 1836, 1824, 1864, 1895, 1904, 1796. That is an average of 170 years ago (1849) or 174 (1845) if you give the two April contenders half weight each. The closest we have come to breaking any of these is within 0.3 in June 1991, and 0.6 in Nov 2010. 

 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Maybe barometric pressure and wind records would qualify. Certainly nothing to match the 922 mbs near Belfast on 8 Dec 1886, or the winds (and tidal surge in the Severn estuary) of the 1703 Great Storm. I suppose most would be content with the extremes of the 1987 and 1990 wind storms. 

In terms of warmest CET day, these are the ones that people reading this did not experience (I would imagine in all cases) ... 2/3 of the January events in 1834 and 1932. ... April 1775 ... May 1780 ... a few maybe June 1947 ... about the same few for July 1948 ... September 1906 ... November 1938. 

These are going to fall eventually, but 2015 was unable to dislodge November and last year offered up a second to April 1775. The other monthly extremes have been experienced at intervals of 3 years (1/3 Jan), 2 years (March, before that it had been 1777), 24 years (August), 34 years (October), and a little over 3 years now for December.

I think it's true to say that nobody reading this has experienced the coldest monthly value of mean daily CET, unless somebody is 101 or 102 here (April 1917 tied 1799). The rest of the crop of all-time coldest days would be 1838, 1816, 1845, 1799/1917, 1861, 1816, 1836, 1824, 1864, 1895, 1904, 1796. That is an average of 170 years ago (1849) or 174 (1845) if you give the two April contenders half weight each. The closest we have come to breaking any of these is within 0.3 in June 1991, and 0.6 in Nov 2010. 

 

Didn't the Braer Storm (1993?) have a central pressure of 914mb, Roger?

[The PIT]

9 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Didn't the Braer Storm (1993?) have a central pressure of 914mb, Roger?

Over the UK 957mb was recorded at Lerwick

[Timmytour]

With no question of February falling below a mean CET of 6C now, attention turns towards December to see if this decade can equal the longstanding record for the most winter months registering a CET of 6C or above.

February will make it nine so far for the decade 1730 to 1739 – and with just one winter month to go there is only one chance to equal the record of ten registered in the decade 1730-1739, a record that has stood on its own for nearly three centuries!!

 

[Summer Sun]

6.7 to the 25th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.7 to the 25th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

At 16.8C, yesterday's provisional maximum is the warmest ever recorded for February, beating the record in 1998 by 0.4C.

[kold weather]

16.8 is an amazing daily record it has to be said, must be plenty of June/July days that have been lower than that!

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

16.8 is an amazing daily record it has to be said, must be plenty of June/July days that have been lower than that!

 

It's 1.2C above the average May maximum!

[snowray]

Just as well that there have been frosty nights and temps dipping below freezing around the CET zone or we would have been way over 7c by now!

[snowray]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

At 16.8C, yesterday's provisional maximum is the warmest ever recorded for February, beating the record in 1998 by 0.4C.

And that record could well be broken again today, incredible stuff. This is not "Spring has sprung", this is "Freak show"!

[Timmytour]

5 hours ago, Timmytour said:

With no question of February falling below a mean CET of 6C now, attention turns towards December to see if this decade can equal the longstanding record for the most winter months registering a CET of 6C or above.

February will make it nine so far for the decade 1730 to 1739* – and with just one winter month to go there is only one chance to equal the record of ten registered in the decade 1730-1739, a record that has stood on its own for nearly three centuries!!

 

Whoops.... *  "for the decade 2010 to 2019" that should obviously read!

Edited February 26, 2019 by Timmytour

[Roger J Smith]

We're just about as far below normal where I live, the month has averaged five degrees below normal for here and this morning it is -15 C outside (a normal overnight low here would be about -4). I guess when we were all wondering where the SSW would do its work, it just took the fight straight to the El Nino and said, "you're done for this winter." The anomalous cold has reached as far south as the Mexican border with record lows and low elevation snowfalls reported from parts of Arizona and southern California recently. 

Also, while snow is not unusual in northern Michigan, they have had 2.5 to 3 times their normal winter amounts and it's all left on the ground by persistent cold temperatures so they are dealing with a level six foot snow pack west of Marquette on the south shore of Lake Superior. Two feet of that fell over the past weekend. 

Meanwhile, I think that if the second half of January had not been as cold as it turned out, this winter would have beaten the 1868-69 average. This January was 1.7 deg colder than their so-so January of 5.7, the other two months will be comparable. 

Edited February 26, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.6C +2.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged