February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[snowray]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

I wouldn’t be surprised it its 6C+, although colder nights could help offset high maxima.

yes it's only the colder nights that are saving our bacon, dear me, I dread to think where we woulds have ended up if night temps were also mild.

[Don]

23 minutes ago, snowray said:

yes it's only the colder nights that are saving our bacon, dear me, I dread to think where we woulds have ended up if night temps were also mild.

And without the cold opening days!

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I wouldn’t be surprised it its 6C+, although colder nights could help offset high maxima.

Not impossible either but I'm guessing a fly in the ointment has to appear at some time. 

[Summer Sun]

4.4 to the 11th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.4 to the 10th & 11th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

[Don]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.4 to the 11th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.4 to the 10th & 11th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Not long now before it goes above average for both periods.

[Summer Sun]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Not long now before it goes above average for both periods.

Thursday at the latest I'd imagine looking at the predicted temps

[Badgers01]

39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday at the latest I'd imagine looking at the predicted temps

we might not then even manage one month with a CET below 3c then !

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

we might not then even manage one month with a CET below 3c then !

Extremely unlikely

We can write off the next 7 to 10 days for anything cold

[kold weather]

Probably going to be between 5.0c and 6.5c landing spot, depending on exactly how the high and upper low in the Atlantic evolves.

[North-Easterly Blast]

50 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

we might not then even manage one month with a CET below 3c then !

We just managed a sub 3*C month in February last year, which had a final CET of 2.93*C.  In fact February 2018 is the only calendar month that has even recorded a CET below 4.0*C since March 2013.  

That said I believe that a month's period of time from mid January to mid February 2015 managed a CET close to 3*C.

[Relativistic]

On 11/02/2019 at 16:49, cheeky_monkey said:

snowy Edmonton is at -26.9c to 10th Feb...which is 15.9c below normal..looks like staying very cold for the next week or so

Lol, your average temperature over the first 10 days is near-enough equal to the UK record.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.7C -0.5C degrees below normal. Rainfall 29.5mm 49.1% of normal.

[Summer Sun]

4.6 to the 12th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.6 to the 12th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP had reached 45 mm as of 11th, probably still around that now. 

By the looks of the latest guidance, CET will probably keep climbing, level off for a while, climb a bit more to perhaps 6 and drop back near end, 5.5 might be a good bet. The EWP will probably reach some finishing value between 70 and 90 mm. 

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Hadley EWP had reached 45 mm as of 11th, probably still around that now. 

By the looks of the latest guidance, CET will probably keep climbing, level off for a while, climb a bit more to perhaps 6 and drop back near end, 5.5 might be a good bet. The EWP will probably reach some finishing value between 70 and 90 mm. 

Are you expecting a cold spell towards month end, Roger?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 3.9C -0.3C below normal. Rainfall Unchanged. In a few days time we will be well above average temperature wise. Looking like a another dry month as well which isn't good news. Wouldn't be surprised if Sunny Sheffield finished around 6C for the month.

[Roger J Smith]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Are you expecting a cold spell towards month end, Roger?

There are only faint indications in the guidance but I do think we will see a week to ten days of cold weather at some point later this season, might only be starting as February ends though. That was disappointing in January to be fairly close to a very good cold spell and only get what you might call sloppy seconds. However, this winter has produced some of the most bizarre synoptics in quite a while, jet stream went south of the Hawaiian Islands at one point recently and mild air is trapped up over the Beaufort Sea, so I think Britain was a bit unlucky since odd blocking patterns can unleash winter upon you more often than not. 

[Don]

21 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

There are only faint indications in the guidance but I do think we will see a week to ten days of cold weather at some point later this season, might only be starting as February ends though. That was disappointing in January to be fairly close to a very good cold spell and only get what you might call sloppy seconds. However, this winter has produced some of the most bizarre synoptics in quite a while, jet stream went south of the Hawaiian Islands at one point recently and mild air is trapped up over the Beaufort Sea, so I think Britain was a bit unlucky since odd blocking patterns can unleash winter upon you more often than not. 

Thanks Roger.  Would be good to get a cold spell and for those to see some of the white stuff who have so far seen so little.  I was lucky on the 31st January/1st February, to see 4/5 inches of snow which lasted the whole weekend, so could make the  most of it!  Has been a very bizarre winter indeed and will perhaps be long remembered for it!

[Summer Sun]

4.8 to the 13th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.8 to the 13th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.1C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

4.9 to the 14th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 14th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

[kold weather]

Should continue upwards from here on though there is some big uncertainty as to what extent. The ECM still looks relatively cool at least overnight which limits the daily CETs to the 6-7c range. The GFS however has higher night time mins probably due to a more cloudy flow. More like 7.5-9c daily CETs If that was correct.

I'd say 5.5-6.5c most likely range at this stage, though with more upward room for error if the more extreme solutions were to happen.

 

[cheeky_monkey]

sunny Edmonton is now at -27.0c to the 14th..average night time lows are at -32.6c ..could end up being one of the coldest February's on record

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now going above average at 4.4C +0.2C above normal rainfall unchanged. With double digits likely to be around for a long while yet a well above month is on the cards making it a mild winter as well.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cold nights down here, sub zero for a few nights now...but Spring perfect by day.  Got an inkling that this HP will dominate for a long while yet....an extreme in itself

 

BFTP