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February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 1.8C -2.4C below normal. Rainfall 8.4mm 14% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

2.7 to the 6th

1.8c below the 61 to 90 average
2.2c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 2.0 to the 5th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 2C -2.2C below normal. Rainfall 17.7mm 29.5% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.2 to the 7th

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
1.7c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 2.0 to the 5th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Sunny Edmonton is at -26.6c to the 7th which is 15.6c below nromal

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield now up to 2.5C -1.7C below normal, Rainfall 23.9mm 39.8% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up 3C -1.2C below normal. Rainfall 27.3mm 45.4% of the monthly normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.8 to the 8th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 3.8 to the 8th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Just thought I should mention that the January EWP contest is still not 100% officially scored yet because nobody has posted a number for the January EWP at Hadley. The tracker is finished (at 47mm) and the daily numbers are there (they add up to 46.9 mm) but when I added up the December daily numbers they don't quite match the (revised) Dec 2018 monthly numbers. Not sure what to make of procedures at Hadley EWP. Every other contest I deal with on the internet has more or less instant validation numbers available on the 1st of the next month. CET at least tries to update daily. But EWP seems to be subject to quite variable times and procedures for validation. Anyway, it's worth having the contest, but I wish that EWP would just go with the flow and update their numbers in real time. It was the same story last February, a long delay before we saw the Hadley numbers posted. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 3.4C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 29.3mm 48.8% of average. Should be above average certainly by the end of the week temperature wise.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.2 to the 9th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.2 to the 9th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

4.2 to the 9th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.2 to the 9th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Chances of a below average February pretty much out the window now!  I think my 4.2C prediction looks to be a bust

 

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, Don said:

Chances of a below average February pretty much out the window now!  I think my 4.2C prediction looks to be a bust

 

Not much better for my guess

I went for 4.4c

:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I went 4.4c too.

Its going up by 0.4c/0.6c every day, In fact I reckon that Lettucing Gutted stands a decent chance of ending up the closest this month.:olddoh:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Looks like my 2.6C is a bust as well - until a few days ago I had been hopeful that the recent westerlies would be a blip and that the high would eventually head N/NE drawing in colder easterlies as many of the longer-term signals had suggested for February, but this now looks increasingly unlikely, in spite of the weak El Nino combined with the Madden-Julian Oscillation heading into phase 8.  A head-scratcher!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

A much colder regime has developed in western Canada and most of the western US, which is not standard El Nino either, but it appears that the El Nino has weakened recently. The temperature here has been 8 to 10 degrees below normal since about 3rd of February after January was milder than average. 

Meanwhile, the Hadley EWP tracker reached 36 mm after 8 days, probably about 40 mm now. On pace to finish above normal but charts suggest this pace may slacken somewhat so most forecasts are still in play. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Not much better for my guess

I went for 4.4c

:oops:

reckon me the ultimate christmas pudding-ist too low too, went for 5.8 I think

bloody 'ell no, 5.1C wth? did say though no wintry weather at all in month, kinda right there (CET zone)

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

A much colder regime has developed in western Canada and most of the western US, which is not standard El Nino either, but it appears that the El Nino has weakened recently. The temperature here has been 8 to 10 degrees below normal since about 3rd of February after January was milder than average. 

Meanwhile, the Hadley EWP tracker reached 36 mm after 8 days, probably about 40 mm now. On pace to finish above normal but charts suggest this pace may slacken somewhat so most forecasts are still in play. 

May not be more than 10mm in the next 10 days, and even that maybe on the high side. Looks like a similar type of profile as December, wet start but drying out as the month goes.

Hard to see the CET being below 5c now.

Also watch the daily records, could see one or two fall...

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.4 to the 10th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.4 to the 10th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

4.4 to the 10th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 4.4 to the 10th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

A finish in the 5Cs already looking a very good bet.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

snowy Edmonton is at -26.9c to 10th Feb...which is 15.9c below normal..looks like staying very cold for the next week or so

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.6C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 29.5mm 49.1% of average.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

A finish in the 5Cs already looking a very good bet.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised it its 6C+, although colder nights could help offset high maxima.

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