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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

No disrespect snowy36 but could you post the chart you are refering too

i have found it 120 hrs

arctic high evident there:oldgrin:

20190118_2316.PPVO89.thumb.png.aff5f387ff07ce302e7edaadb7f3147b.png

Superb from Exeter

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Very unstable starting NNW flow  being suggested by the fax charts, and it does tally up with the GFS runs which have been pretty consistent with dropping a decent snowfall in the west from the convection coming down, probable streamer action as well likely IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No disrespect snowy36 but could you post the chart you are refering too

i have found it 120 hrs

arctic high evident there:oldgrin:

20190118_2316.PPVO89.thumb.png.aff5f387ff07ce302e7edaadb7f3147b.png

Sorry Ali i didn't know how to do it , oh yes its simple . I'll do it next time ?. Still looks closer to the ukmo/gfs than the ecw.

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Just now, kold weather said:

Very unstable starting NNW flow  being suggested by the fax charts, and it does tally up with the GFS runs which have been pretty consistent with dropping a decent snowfall in the west from the convection coming down, probable streamer action as well likely IMO.

I think there is a trough in the Blackpool area or just south meaning NW Wales/Cheshire grap could get pummelled..

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Seriously, EVERY single GFSP run has been top trumping the OP, despite how good they have also been. Almost unreal 18z GFSP.

Anyway, we really do need to see the ECM come onboard tomorrow to help shore up confidence, and I feel equally important is to keep the 00z UKMO onside as well, its dropping a set-up has spelled the death of MANY a cold spell before...

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I think there is a trough in the Blackpool area or just south meaning NW Wales/Cheshire grap could get pummelled..

Yep, closer to the time watch for the met office to add a convergence line symbol on the output, it seems fairly primed to me for that to happen, may even get some left overs if there is enough of a force to it even down in CS England, models are suggesting it is possible.

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Just now, shaky said:

Well poor old ecm is a little bit isolated tonight!!!latest fax is the best i have seen in a long time and goes with the ukmo full on!!

As others have said, they usually go with their own model at 120-

Even a blend of UKMO/GFS/EC would be very good...

Major wobble but still a cold outlook.

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3 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

WMC not having it

wmc-0-120.png?18-00

Oh well it was fun while it lasted

Working mens club having none of it!!!

never go there anyway.

FV3 at 276 is well,textbook again,that reload i mentioned...

gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.d56ced152d1bdbeee445309cb521556a.png

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.58beea565a9fd6d62a540aab44c41181.png

No words needed feb graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.a5a3eb2ea06392453a364deb57f6a10b.gif graphe3_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.ce118eef38aaf25baf92305e1e35ae9c.gif graphe6_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.cf9ebc1002714475cdcb6362738c5404.gifgraphe6_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.2906b9748c51d7ec088fcf628cebdd90.gif 

having a quick look through the table view on the 18z GEFS for here and a cheeky little -14 850 hPa  in between these charts gens-5-1-348.thumb.png.2cad799008ab248baef80d50b8447091.png  gens-5-1-360.thumb.png.97576d6b16b1c73f7ef2ddd0ef71548e.png gens-5-0-348.thumb.png.10d51a5e3b194f7f600206f6f22a74d7.png gens-5-0-360.thumb.png.ba53b6a98c4b2a8eafc755684a81ce25.png http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=56.10878&lon=-3.16202&run=18&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0  :cold: ❄️  

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Last post tonight - interesting to see the ensemble spread for mean see level pressure from the ECM for 7/8 days' time. 

render-gorax-green-009-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1ad515c21ca67e14-XWBcBQ.thumb.png.e89393f3fccc8cc48477e14af1ca56bc.png

Note the greater spread to the north as the model struggles to get to grips with heights in that area. Has a big bearing on strength of the easterly and specific direction. Much still to be resolved which is why none of the more technical posters on here today have done much in the way of predicting specifics.

Good fun to be heading into a cold week where the exact pattern is still a lottery! Better than Game of Thrones.

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