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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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New to weather charts, despite having an unhealthy obsession with snow, they’re not something I’ve took the time to fully learn and understand yet, but I had to sign up today after lurking for a bit, I can’t believe how active these threads are, and even though I don’t understand a massive mount from the charts, I get a lot from the comments!

Praying for extreme snowfall and the charts come true.... but I need to be a bit selfish, and hope we don’t get too much until I am back onshore on the 30th... I don’t want to miss it or get delayed ? the first two weeks on February would be perfect for me..... even longer if possible, but I guess those charts are in fantasy land until 3 or 4 days before?.....

 

oh... and hello fellow cold lovers!?

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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Great Run From The GFS and a fair improvement on the GFSP so far as we speak 

However I'm still not getting excited for two reasons

Once it's in very reliable timeframe

Two The ECM has to come on board since the GFS has been not so great lately.

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Kind of weird how everything reverses but by the end we end up in a similar flat pattern to the usual, with a mundane contental easterly rather than a mundane Atlantic westerly.

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Is it fair to say that the 12z ECM might have misconstrued or over/underinflated one or even a percentage of one of the macro variables to a point where any resultant output is scuppered from the outset? Would this error (for want of a better word) not have the same effect on the entire ensemble suite to boot?  Like many others I’ve been following this forum and the models for donkeys years and without question the only constant is inconsistency.  Entire ensemble suites can and have turned from one extreme to another before you can finish your cornflakes.  The ECM threw out a “downgrade” or two already this week, personally I think the overseers are just trying to mess with feb1991s head (it’s working ?(only poking F91))

Roll on amarach

 

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Incredible 18z..it's like I always say, I would rather have the Gfs 18z on board than the Ecm!!..who am I kidding:crazy:..anyway this run has the latest data so it's a happy Bedtime for me.??❄️:crazy::cold:

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Agree that  the only saving grace is At 78hours gfs should be correct, in turn that will effect the output further on so if its correct at 78 we hope out to 144 at least it is right. ECM  had snow machine charts yesterday and backed away before this morning when they improved again. I hope it's just a wobble, but that gives me hope it will flip back on 00zs.?

Edited by snowice
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The ECM for sure is a possibility if the Arctic high does support the ridging in the intial development. I'd say all models have trended just a touch towards that with how they are delayingthe diving of the upper low over Iceland. Even this 18z was just a touch slower but rproviding the support is there, it should all connect up at least for a short while.

FI is a lot less impressive on the 18z GFS as the pattern blows up so rapidly on this run. Probably too much northern blocking IMO at least out to 192hrs.

Also the ECM is a great model, the best, but it can also be wrong as well on occasion, I remember last year it had a wobble in our cold shot just as GFS came onboard. The ECM then jumped back on 24hrs later.

Edited by kold weather
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Right...model fatigue for today for sure....

 

What a great watch it has become in the last week or so....pretty much as predicted all along. Models now showing something some of us will remember for a long long time if this spell produces to it's potential...

 

ECM BACK ON IT COME THE MORNING....?? IT JUST HAS TO BE!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I sense the models have been sent spinning a bit by tropical adjustments from what they were expecting; GFS is suddenly showing a much accelerated progress to a more west-based neg NAO and ECM did a similar thing at the end albeit via a different route.

I’ve seen it before, and usually the evolution adjusts back again afterward, but not the whole way back to where it was beforehand.

A lot of speculation here though; could just be model feedback amplifying slight mid-range variations!

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10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GFSP is out to 84 and all is good, slight improvement vs the 12z thus far

image.thumb.png.afbbc047f6ba46c2dbbc53f7cd3d08c9.png

Yep at T96 the pattern has backed west by 100 miles or so.

-6 850s touching South West Irish coast

18z

gfsnh-1-96.png?18

 

12z

gfsnh-1-102.png?12

Horses for courses in a selective region but good overall

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The ECM for sure is a possibility if the Arctic high does support the ridging in the intial development. I'd say all models have trended just a touch towards that with how they are delayingthe diving of the upper low over Iceland. Even this 18z was just a touch slower but rproviding the support is there, it should all connect up at least for a short while.

FI is a lot less impressive on the 18z GFS as the pattern blows up so rapidly on this run. Probably too much northern blocking IMO at least out to 192hrs.

Also the ECM is a great model, the best, but it can also be wrong as well on occasion, I remember last year it had a wobble in our cold shot just as GFS came onboard. The ECM then jumped back on 24hrs later.

Do you have a time machine!

don't you  mean the 12z:oldgrin:

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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

0403713D-88DB-4E36-B3BD-102A704A1AC4.thumb.png.c33bc62cb4a51623d1463a799fa277be.png

You have to read it carefully however Fergie believes the 12z ECM is the more likely option at the moment. 

I read it the other way, despite what the ECM explores and shows the colder option remains by far the most likely.

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Just now, Singularity said:

Actually I believe what this says is, the very cold GFS is exploring the extremes of the range of possibilities, as is the ECM, but within that spread, the colder outcomes - i.e. not ECM-like - are considered by far the more likely. 

I think that as well, because why would he say that the colder options more likely (which he clearly does) if he thought the 12z ECM would verify, while it isn't actually mild, its at the mild end of the spread at the moment.

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5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I sense the models have been sent spinning a bit by tropical adjustments from what they were expecting; GFS is suddenly showing a much accelerated progress to a more west-based neg NAO and ECM did a similar thing at the end albeit via a different route.

I’ve seen it before, and usually the evolution adjusts back again afterward, but not the whole way back to where it was beforehand.

A lot of speculation here though; could just be model feedback amplifying slight mid-range variations!

Yeah, actually the 18z GFS is so rapid its almost close to the Feb 18 shot in its speed on this run and that was a very rapid evolution (obviously nowhere near as cold).

I too noticed the attempt at a west based -ve NAO, on the GFS it offers breakdown chances, on the 12z ECM it probably locks us into a broad UK upper trough and maybe a chance at a VERY marginal snow event before we go back to standard average winter fare.

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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You have to read it carefully however Fergie believes the 12z ECM is the more likely option at the moment. 

How can you read a weather tweet carefully, they are ALL utterly vacuous and he probably means ECM is outlier, not for this thread anyway.  Meanwhile FV3 T114 non too shabby,

image.thumb.jpg.708509b7193385dba2d3111e35069264.jpg

 

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