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Paul

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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At 216 we look to have a full on reversal.  Absolutely stunning, hopefully the ECM won't pee on our chips in the morning?

image.thumb.png.4635199ab8c081ff170b24e26f67cb72.png

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Right stop it GFS now it's getting to good to be true,  I'm going to be a nervous wreck in the morning watching the ECM come out.  I agree with northwestsnow I just hope it's not showing us what we could of had

Screenshot_20190118-223507.png

Edited by seabreeze86
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Just now, Ice Day said:

At 216 we look to have a full on reversal.  Absolutely stunning, hopefully the ECM won't pee on our chips in the morning?

image.thumb.png.4635199ab8c081ff170b24e26f67cb72.png

GFS & ECM will probably swap over come morning, just to test us that little bit further ?

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to have a bit of humor even when you have that awful feeling in the back of your mind.. ?

Indeed. We have been here many times. Most of us want something extreme. I am 50/50 after the ecm op but still strangely optimistic lol. The debilt ext ens were much better than I expected ?

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25 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Looks like rain to wet snow to me. 

43D029A9-753A-4F5E-B9B5-C270B1D5AEF3.thumb.gif.b4b223276f316a6de0c355ca9a36e9af.gif3161A632-97D8-468F-A987-E18BE228F582.thumb.gif.7140076d09c328ea55cefc0196964c08.gif

 

These look exactly what Nick F was pointing out in his article that Paul posted earlier. And I quote... 

“ A deep depression moving off the tip of Greenland towards Iceland will push an active frontal system across the west later in the day across then further east overnight and into Tuesday before clearing SE England early Tuesday. It will turn briefly ‘milder’ ahead of this frontal system, so the front initially bring rain for most, but colder cutting in behind from the northwest sourced from a very cold Greenland and NE Canada, could turn the rain to snow on the back edge as it clears SE.” 

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I don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before.... but I'd like to.

image.thumb.png.86ae561ed95d8f29f37df7b73426a2e9.png

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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

At 216 we look to have a full on reversal.  Absolutely stunning, hopefully the ECM won't pee on our chips in the morning?

image.thumb.png.4635199ab8c081ff170b24e26f67cb72.png

Very nice indeed. FWIW I do think the ECM will come round in the morning. It won't be quite as spectacular as this pub special but it'll be a big step back in the right direction. All in my opinion though! ?

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Can someone wake me up!!! lol

attack from the SW and later from the NE with a perfect hp cell over greenland,this is crazy and on par with the 12z gfs

gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.da38f0860e63585ff162bca956c66d9f.png

I HAVE NO NAILS LEFT!

 

Think it beats the 12z, amazingly. 

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The Gfs  18z doesn't have a Greenland high or a Scandi. It has a bloody northern hemisphere high

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When the gfs is consistent on a crazy hemispheric pettern .........

anyway, don’t rely on the clusters to come to the aid of the ec 12z suite ....... till the morning .......

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Well the gfs has shown the ecn where to shove it. Amazing run from the gfs. Dare I say it's even better than the 12z in terms of insuring everyone gets a share of the cold.

I'm praying to my deities tonight that the ecm comes and board again and it was just a duff run. Studying public call me up about 4 a.m. again tomorrow, oh well.

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Does anyone know what time the FAX 120 updates-

Think that will give us a clue if Exeter think the EC is wrong..

To clarify, i don't think EC is bad, its cold, and the Euro low is present..Which will hopefully dictate the path of the jet if a PM set up is favored..

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i know these charts are 'just for fun' , aren't they?

222-780UK.thumb.gif.6dc6eb51db9ff5c670a12cedeeecd74b.gif

A 'stay in bed' Monday if ever there was one,

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Tonight's 18z if thats not a beast i don't know what is.

Some may wonder why I post precip charts mostly .

Mainly because there different but easy to follow .

There not gospel 

But I've had positive comments from newbies about my postings

You guys and girls more experienced 

Know why these charts would attract newbie attention. 

I don't know what an upgrade on a upgrade looks like.

I'm sleeping with one eye open next Wednesday night and beyond.

Widespread snow showers filtering well inland imo.

19012600_1818.gif

19012718_1818.gif

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3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Holy moly! if anything like this or the prior GFS Op run comes off, it’ll be pandemonium. Let’s see where it sits in the GEFS and then await the 00Zs...

just staggering charts really from GFS, you couldn’t draw them better 

edit: I mean, look at this. The mean flow in the northern hemisphere is the wrong way round for heaven sake! 

A4777626-B31A-429C-B3E0-862E34B4F66A.png

Reversal of winds to an easterly downwelling from strat to trop.

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GFSP is out to 84 and all is good, slight improvement vs the 12z thus far

image.thumb.png.afbbc047f6ba46c2dbbc53f7cd3d08c9.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Does anyone know what time the FAX 120 updates-

Think that will give us a clue if Exeter think the EC is wrong..

To clarify, i don't think EC is bad, its cold, and the Euro low is present..Which will hopefully dictate the path of the jet if a PM set up is favored..

Case of All routes lead to winter! At last! Just some take longer than others. Preferably want the EC back onboard tomorrow morning for the first bite as time is running out, so no ECM tomorrow morning would be a worry for our first bite of the cherry! 

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Think we all know until the ecm comes on board we should treat these gfs runs with a huge amount of salt. We all know how much stick the gfs gets and probably rightly so. The ecm is a top performance model for a reason. Let’s hope tomorrow is something similar to these crazy runs from gfs. But until then I’m keeping my feet firmly on the ground. Yes the ecm was cold upto 144 but it’s no where near what the gfs is showing. I’d be putting my money on ecm. Because in the words of Steve murr the gfs isn’t the greatest model out there. Certainly wouldn’t be putting my mortgage on the nirvana charts it throwing out at the moment. 

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