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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Can we please stop the whole I told you so thing? It’s infuriating reading multiple posts saying ‘I said this would happen’ 100% we all did get ahead of ourselves last night that much is evident but it’s like me resurrecting posts of people who were wrong and gloating, it’s pointless.. besides nobody is right or wrong yet as Nothing has actually happened yet!

Aye people that gloat lose any respect they may of had IMO. 

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34 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Feb and March 2018 verification stats for some of the main models for your thoughts.

1269017895_feb2018.thumb.PNG.6fd5e7c4b70084aaa20ecb7d9cc5fa0c.PNG  1051180702_march2018.thumb.PNG.9d6f0fb44a628118139f9f91ae3ec8f8.PNG

 

JMA it is then. Very alright with that. 

EDIT: Shudda gone to Specavers. That'll teach me to jump to conclusions. Apologies. It's obviously inverted.

 

Edited by supernova
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7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Ignoring the mid-long term because quite franky, what. 

ECM for Tuesday showing accumulations generally restricted to higher ground in the North/West 

ECMWF.thumb.png.b44978e92ab7f1829d25dba8b8540619.png

East of the pennines snow shield in full effect ?? couldn't make it up and as soon as the front touches France and the Low Countries it all accumulates as snow again 

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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a thought ...... whilst last feb was a very different ssw, we saw the nwp model a repsonse for around the 19th feb on the models ...... this fell apart after a couple days with Atlantic firing up but the proposed pattern came back for less than a week later (with a vengeance). Now we aren’t looking at a scandi high this time but the euro trough, whilst failing to sustain later this week will have another go and another go and at some point it will stick! 

In march, probably.

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2 minutes ago, supernova said:

JMA it is then. Very alright with that. 

 

No, the lower on the graph the better. Less mistakes basically. JMA last for those months out of the models shown

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

U realise it’s the worst based on those charts ?

Clocked that straight away, couldn't see the ECM being bottom, followed by the UKMO and the GEM / GFS battling it out for 3rd bottom!!!!

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14 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Alright. Here is your "Country" chart.

 

image.thumb.png.d1b820119c645a0c31f070671324ecd6.png

 

Brilliant that is but also it’s days away so massive changes plus what follows on behind could be a bit exciting I’d imagine 

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Evening.. so a different set of cards on the table tonight, , from a coldies expect  good news as it won't be mild ,but no cold easterlies at presant ,  looking forward to wet snow from Greenland ...but the extreme cold awaits ....to the East...

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The most important part of that (IMO) is the vague link up of heights in Atlantic and Arctic. The shortwave is weakened in the GIN corridor.

 

Now to the GFS. If we can see a repeat, it will almost be prophetic... Or will it be pathetic? ?

Edited by Rocheydub
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Oh my word, is the ICON shifting camp? Looking more like one of the minor model solutions there at T114 on its 18z run....:oldgrin:

iconeu-0-114.png

iconeu-1-114.png

Edited by snowray
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It's subtle but the shift Northwards in the low over Italy sharpens the high and gets an Easterly flow across the UK

UU.thumb.png.844f9b51628943bb0d2c4104eb7eaa8a.png

Much better, not fully reverting back but it's a step..

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Well a much better run on ICON 18z too little too late for the easterly, although it could set up the next one I suppose 

image.thumb.jpg.7e78c9723d99723f1a22d668eea31ded.jpg

 

Tired after today's output...!?

Edit, it help If I put the right chart in!

Edited by Mike Poole
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