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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    2 minutes ago, supernova said:

    JMA it is then. Very alright with that. 

     

    No, the lower on the graph the better. Less mistakes basically. JMA last for those months out of the models shown

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    Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

    Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    U realise it’s the worst based on those charts ?

    Clocked that straight away, couldn't see the ECM being bottom, followed by the UKMO and the GEM / GFS battling it out for 3rd bottom!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

    Yes Blue that's what we are looking for but people must remember its not the driver its just the state of what happens if that makes sense 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    14 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

    Alright. Here is your "Country" chart.

     

    image.thumb.png.d1b820119c645a0c31f070671324ecd6.png

     

    Brilliant that is but also it’s days away so massive changes plus what follows on behind could be a bit exciting I’d imagine 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening.. so a different set of cards on the table tonight, , from a coldies expect  good news as it won't be mild ,but no cold easterlies at presant ,  looking forward to wet snow from Greenland ...but the extreme cold awaits ....to the East...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Better Atlantic ridging from icon 18z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
    19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    U realise it’s the worst based on those charts ?

    Well I do now Blue. Soz. I'm an idiot..

    Edited by supernova
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Better.. 

    ICON.thumb.png.dcaaea5c4012f10a1c5fa474d9679c6c.png

    At least winds are vaguely Easterly anyway 

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    The most important part of that (IMO) is the vague link up of heights in Atlantic and Arctic. The shortwave is weakened in the GIN corridor.

     

    Now to the GFS. If we can see a repeat, it will almost be prophetic... Or will it be pathetic? ?

    Edited by Rocheydub
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Oh my word, is the ICON shifting camp? Looking more like one of the minor model solutions there at T114 on its 18z run....:oldgrin:

    iconeu-0-114.png

    iconeu-1-114.png

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    It's subtle but the shift Northwards in the low over Italy sharpens the high and gets an Easterly flow across the UK

    UU.thumb.png.844f9b51628943bb0d2c4104eb7eaa8a.png

    Much better, not fully reverting back but it's a step..

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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    Just now, snowray said:

    Oh my word, is the ICON shifting camp? Looking more like one of the minor model solutions there at T114....:oldgrin:

    iconeu-0-114.png

    iconeu-1-114.png

    The ICON should not be ignored!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well a much better run on ICON 18z too little too late for the easterly, although it could set up the next one I suppose 

    image.thumb.jpg.7e78c9723d99723f1a22d668eea31ded.jpg

     

    Tired after today's output...!?

    Edit, it help If I put the right chart in!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

    It's subtle but the shift Northwards in the low over Italy sharpens the high and gets an Easterly flow across the UK

    UU.thumb.png.844f9b51628943bb0d2c4104eb7eaa8a.png

    Much better, not fully reverting back but it's a step..

    The big spoiler here IMO is the low to the West of Iceland,if that wasn't there and some ridging was, we wouldn't have got ourselves into this mess in the first place, the Easterly would have been a doddle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    28 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    East of the pennines snow shield in full effect ?? couldn't make it up and as soon as the front touches France and the Low Countries it all accumulates as snow again 

    Continental climate vs island climate. Easy to get snow on the continent with uppers as high as 0. Where as the UK can get rain with uppers at -7, if various other parameters aren’t met.

    I think the real snow risk for lower levels in the north and west on Tuesday will be from showers following in behind the front. My location looks well positioned for that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

    The ICON should not be ignored!!

    As I explained earlier, we want to keep that low as far north of Italy as possible, we don't want it sinking as quickly as we have seen on some runs. The Azores high is a pain in the B, but we can live with that for now and hope it can stay out west a bit further.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well a much better run on ICON 18z too little too late for the easterly, although it could set up the next one I suppose 

    image.thumb.jpg.7e78c9723d99723f1a22d668eea31ded.jpg

     

    Tired after today's output...!?

    Edit, it help If I put the right chart in!

    Thats a very good chart on the face of it, would not take much for some upgrades tomorrow from there.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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