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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, supernova said:

JMA it is then. Very alright with that. 

 

No, the lower on the graph the better. Less mistakes basically. JMA last for those months out of the models shown

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

U realise it’s the worst based on those charts ?

Clocked that straight away, couldn't see the ECM being bottom, followed by the UKMO and the GEM / GFS battling it out for 3rd bottom!!!!

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14 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Alright. Here is your "Country" chart.

 

image.thumb.png.d1b820119c645a0c31f070671324ecd6.png

 

Brilliant that is but also it’s days away so massive changes plus what follows on behind could be a bit exciting I’d imagine 

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Evening.. so a different set of cards on the table tonight, , from a coldies expect  good news as it won't be mild ,but no cold easterlies at presant ,  looking forward to wet snow from Greenland ...but the extreme cold awaits ....to the East...

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The most important part of that (IMO) is the vague link up of heights in Atlantic and Arctic. The shortwave is weakened in the GIN corridor.

 

Now to the GFS. If we can see a repeat, it will almost be prophetic... Or will it be pathetic? ?

Edited by Rocheydub
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Oh my word, is the ICON shifting camp? Looking more like one of the minor model solutions there at T114 on its 18z run....:oldgrin:

iconeu-0-114.png

iconeu-1-114.png

Edited by snowray
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It's subtle but the shift Northwards in the low over Italy sharpens the high and gets an Easterly flow across the UK

UU.thumb.png.844f9b51628943bb0d2c4104eb7eaa8a.png

Much better, not fully reverting back but it's a step..

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Well a much better run on ICON 18z too little too late for the easterly, although it could set up the next one I suppose 

image.thumb.jpg.7e78c9723d99723f1a22d668eea31ded.jpg

 

Tired after today's output...!?

Edit, it help If I put the right chart in!

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

It's subtle but the shift Northwards in the low over Italy sharpens the high and gets an Easterly flow across the UK

UU.thumb.png.844f9b51628943bb0d2c4104eb7eaa8a.png

Much better, not fully reverting back but it's a step..

The big spoiler here IMO is the low to the West of Iceland,if that wasn't there and some ridging was, we wouldn't have got ourselves into this mess in the first place, the Easterly would have been a doddle.

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28 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

East of the pennines snow shield in full effect ?? couldn't make it up and as soon as the front touches France and the Low Countries it all accumulates as snow again 

Continental climate vs island climate. Easy to get snow on the continent with uppers as high as 0. Where as the UK can get rain with uppers at -7, if various other parameters aren’t met.

I think the real snow risk for lower levels in the north and west on Tuesday will be from showers following in behind the front. My location looks well positioned for that.

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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

The ICON should not be ignored!!

As I explained earlier, we want to keep that low as far north of Italy as possible, we don't want it sinking as quickly as we have seen on some runs. The Azores high is a pain in the B, but we can live with that for now and hope it can stay out west a bit further.

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well a much better run on ICON 18z too little too late for the easterly, although it could set up the next one I suppose 

image.thumb.jpg.7e78c9723d99723f1a22d668eea31ded.jpg

 

Tired after today's output...!?

Edit, it help If I put the right chart in!

Thats a very good chart on the face of it, would not take much for some upgrades tomorrow from there.

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