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Paul

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just now, Kev smith scfc said:

We'll distrust at your peril there is information about dsw available,when it delivers it will prevail for 30 days,not every day will be cold  but the majority wil.

There are plenty of words written about DSWs, I certainly don't distrust the science, but there will be very few analogues that have been built into the models - hence the model confusion. Agree with you about the outcome though! 

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Thanks, just completed my netweather bingo for when a cold spell goes wrong ? this along with ‘we weren’t really expecting the cold spell yet anyway’ ‘I told you so’ as well as the obligatory Navgem or CMA being posted. 

It's a pity no-one said anything, the day before yesterday??

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1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

Verification stats chart shows the JMA should not be ignored. In third behind the ECM and just behind the UKMO. Just thought I would clear that up. ?

verification.thumb.PNG.d20c42866ff1eccf625ddd1674761adf.PNG

Now is it's perfect chance to shine then ?

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1 minute ago, snowking said:

Just thought I would illustrate exactly where the shortwave will appear as we get closer to T+0....

57CEC9E1-F156-4667-A0A4-30FF163CDC23.thumb.jpeg.4fd8c3f9072e42abc8a9dea9e3b4d383.jpeg

Well modelling still keen to keep systems moving NW-SE, which will always give us these shots at getting a ridge into a place conducive to UK cold given the current state of GLAAM with ridges trying to push north whenever they can. That combined with the slow draining of the vortex into the eastern hemisphere should still keep some interest in the medium range

tenor.thumb.gif.8669152853f92c3cf96779e2db940a29.gif

Jokes aside I agree - Next weeks Easterly might not happen but the models are not suggesting anything remotely mild, GEFS remains cold throughout with the broad pattern remaining the same. Signal remains for a Euro trough and as long as that remains there's no chance of anything mild developing. 

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4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Just thought I would illustrate exactly where the shortwave will appear as we get closer to T+0....

57CEC9E1-F156-4667-A0A4-30FF163CDC23.thumb.jpeg.4fd8c3f9072e42abc8a9dea9e3b4d383.jpeg

Well modelling still keen to keep systems moving NW-SE, which will always give us these shots at getting a ridge into a place conducive to UK cold given the current state of GLAAM with ridges trying to push north whenever they can. That combined with the slow draining of the vortex into the eastern hemisphere should still keep some interest in the medium range

Yes, that's what happens, it causes the 2 areas of troughing to engage each other, when it does it to the North of the UK its game over, and it keeps happening and its ruining our winters.

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Well today didn't really go as planned did it!  

The initial easterly is now off the table, and also those Narnia charts that were dependent on it.  Let's take a moment.....  ...

And move on.  

Still a very cold signal on most of the model output into February, even innocuous Z500 charts have quite cold T850s if you look.

ECM 12z T240 however, what on earth is this cold thing?

image.thumb.jpg.b75d6b7468cb259aff9110a5ff27f962.jpg

It has for got four short purple stumpy feet and a massive head, and none of it where we want it!  

Could do better, ECM.  See me!

Edited by Mike Poole
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10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Bored. 

Been reading, hoping and anticipating since November. 

Can’t be bothered anymore.

Amazing how those cold charts have just disappeared. 

26EE34B5-4FFA-4226-84EB-E6E141306A0A.thumb.png.bfc0b2888bb4e7d796137dcf77162aad.png

Back to square 1 at 216hrs on the ECM

Looks like Feb when we might feel the full effects of the SSW. 

Agreed. It'll snow when it snows, it'll rain when it rains.

I imagine myself and many others probably spend too much time concerning themselves with things like this, although it is human nature to desire anticipation of the unknown. Unfortunately, the models will never be reliable.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, that's what happens, it causes the 2 areas of troughing to engage each other, when it does it to the North of the UK its game over, and it keeps happening and its ruining our winters.

But that’s just a symptom and not the cause

 

the artic high is not where it should be therefore the link up is not happening this allows small areas of low highs to remain in place which looks like a cause but as I said it’s not a cause it’s just a symptom.

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Ukmo 120hr fax chart to agree with the JMA tonight? - No chance! ?

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56 minutes ago, Borei said:

 

This is called confirmation bias. 

You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals. 

There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?

Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.    

 

 

I’m sorry but it’s pretty clear that a SSW that has a tropospheric response can cause a reversal of zonal winds from net westerly to easterly and a split or displaced PV. All of that increases are PROBABILITY of a UK cold spell.  It is not a guarantee. 

Edited by danm

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Why do Gifs of me keep appearing - I should be charging royalties!...back to the models, looking more or less onto Day 10 and onwards again! (like in December). :lazy:

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To be honest the JMA is been very consistent it has shown this for days and not swapped and changed like the others

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At t120 the ecm has the ridge coming under pressure from the trough that has swung north east from the Newfoundland area.It then proceeds east suppressing the ridge

t120.thumb.png.cd8a4aad6aaffda75b14e5b84318bd60.pngt144.thumb.png.a38c11b96e51f859a0aedab6ca60cc70.png

By t168 the next upper trough is tracking south east as the subtropical high once again amplifies to the west and an intense little surface low is about to impact Scotland and bring rain and strong winds to most of Brain over the next 12 hours.

t169.thumb.png.f518b93c3df887c1a40a80de05887055.png

From this point a familiar scenario as the ridge continues to build strongly

t210.thumb.png.b26358b1e5e6e98e3a5952d155a5d932.png

Edited by knocker
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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

But that’s just a symptom and not the cause

 

the artic high is not where it should be therefore the link up is not happening this allows small areas of low highs to remain in place which looks like a cause but as I said it’s not a cause it’s just a symptom.

It is a symptom but i don't care where the arctic high is, you can draw me pre- Easterly chart, a chart that you think would go on to deliver an Easterly and i will guarantee you, that you can't guarantee a shortwave won't pop up and spoil it.

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Things no where near like December's mild fest so we're still in the game and I'm hoping that models are doing what they normally do at weekends, before correcting on a Monday. Is there less data on weekends I wonder.

Shame it coincides when many of the doom mongers seem to be out, much like during Christmas hols, this place takes on a strange mood on days off when we hobbyists should be enjoying it.

If no improvement Monday then I'm resigned to waiting a few more days for the next rollercoaster, but at least we all have a ticket, just a shame theirs no height restrictions for those pram dwellers.

 

Screenshot_20190119-192432_Chrome.jpg

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, that's what happens, it causes the 2 areas of troughing to engage each other, when it does it to the North of the UK its game over, and it keeps happening and its ruining our winters.

The Gin corridor?

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1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

The Gin corridor?

Anywhere where you need the high pressure to be clean - spoilers can occur

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is a symptom but i don't care where the arctic high is, you can draw me pre- Easterly chart, a chart that you think would go on to deliver an Easterly and i will guarantee you, that you can't guarantee a shortwave won't pop up and spoil it.

Obviously but it won’t be a shortwave 

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Obviously but it won’t be a shortwave 

It will - a non closed circulation wave - kink in the isobars if you like.

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