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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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I would take anything past 96h on ECM or any model with a huge pinch of salt. 

Everything is still to play for and we could even still get the significant outcome next week we all want.

Cross model agreement is needed and we don't have that yet.

UKMO still going for cold next week and well done to them for sticking to it when every model at one stage was against it!

Game on. Don't panic yet!

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5 minutes ago, in the vale said:

This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. Sorry ITV edited for brevity.. 

Agreed. DL’s original point well made. Good point on the other side from DPower too, that not only may the downwelling be slower but also weaker than anticipated. Both likely, I think. 

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

144 is a really weird looking chart and I can't quite work out why

Weird.thumb.gif.30dda965f8bec9f5d64fd40278cd1060.gif

Odd evolution between 120 and 144 

Yep that’s what I thought, it’s a bizzare pattern almost like it didnt know what to do with all the conflicting stuff going on, where’s all the energy around the lobe of death? Nothing happening in the Atlantic

I actually thought t96 looked marginally better than this morning.

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Not the ECM 168 we wanted to see but I’m not convinced by it either. Odd evolution. Tomorrow may shed more light but not quite ready to chuck the towel in yet.

429B9787-2A45-410C-A910-D4571BC8F67B.thumb.png.9a004867aa708d7aaae45ab4057c2892.png

 

 

 

Edited by supernova
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12 minutes ago, in the vale said:

This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. I think the models struggle with this transition period - starting data may not be easily parsed when dealing with conflicting obs at different atmospheric levels (strat, trop, surface) that are perhaps unrecognisable to the steady-state, normal conditions that models deal with - i.e. the transition period is going to throw up some strange anomalies, especially as the downwelling gets closer to the surface and more obs are factored in. ECM with it's higher vertical resolution may actually be more confused than any other model. Until the downwelling is complete - next week - and the models can 'recognise' an obs pattern that their physics can recognise as a start point, they are going to thrash around like a mackerel just off the hook.  I would not put much faith in any output beyond 68h. The big picture seems to remain unaffected by the transition - low to our South, high somewhere North - those keep us in the game. 

Indeed so, the GFS take on the down welling indicates the end of the month before fully effects on the troposphere... is evident

image.thumb.png.46fb8886b75f4b1c4df0d4c435b7e451.png

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We are well into fantasy land now when 96h hasn't been sorted yet.

However, 168h ECM looking tasty to me...

Atlantic blocking could still very much happen at 192h with this progression.

Edited by CSC
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6 minutes ago, CSC said:

I would take anything past 96h on ECM or any model with a huge pinch of salt. 

Everything is still to play for and we could even still get the significant outcome next week we all want.

Cross model agreement is needed and we don't have that yet.

UKMO still going for cold next week and well done to them for sticking to it when every model at one stage was against it!

Game on. Don't panic yet!

Ermmm ...

Sounds very familiar...

That post ??

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Better heights in the Griceland area on this run although nothing major, was expecting the trough to sink through into Europe again...

 

*edit : there you go! Northerly...

image.pngimage.thumb.png.975d81552e8ae5ee3e3109713355454c.png

Edited by Nimbusman
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