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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

AO and NAO are not drivers.

Indeed they are not, blame my fried brain with all these events over the last 24 hours.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp at 174 is a repeat of the pattern coming up that promised us the Easterly

174h V 54h

gfsnh-0-174.png?12gfsnh-0-54.png?12

And that one might possibly hold and deliver.T204

image.thumb.jpg.7893139b322d2be5b2f008e4d5e9790e.jpg

decent northerly flow there.

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The4Seasons Enthusiast

The4Seasons

Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
Posted

Ah well I saw my 1 flake of snow up in Merthyr at work yesterday. That's me done on model watching - jokes lol. Seriously though don't panic all. The models will keep changing so rapidly. No model is even sure for Tuesday where the snow is going to be. Changing all the time showing rain then snow then rain with each run changes it's outcome.. Who knows we might be all jolly in 3 days time onto something great. At least there is no raging Atlantic storms or floods that hit us in early winter atm . The garden isn't a sludge pit for once lol. 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

p5 keeping the dream alive, sniffle, little trooper

gensnh-5-1-240.png

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

LOL! the 'ICON hi res' has it coming in as rain to snow and back to rain again....never was a fan of that model :oldp:

For what it is worth, I've found the ICON terrible with precipitation charts. Always playing catch up closer to the timescale. ARPEGE and HIRLAM were very close to gospel regarding February March 2018 snowfalls, have been also watching them with main rainfall events and they have worked well overall.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Actually a surprisingly great set of GFS ensembles at the moment from the 12z GFS, with quite a few forming a block near Scandi and holding the upper high fairly close by.

Also good support later on for big height rises to the north again as well around the same time as the GFS OP.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Backed up with charts. They get as interested and excited as us, are they not allowed? Passion is passion

I'd sure like to see those charts' (the ones without the arrows pointing in the desired direction) verification stats?

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Much to be decided..

I will say i'm losing hope Tues will offer much in the way of wintryness away from high ground,APRERGE showing only bits and bats of snow, likely high ground event only..

Crucially, and i apply this to GFS too, the low res APRERGE show lots of snow, its only when you look at the high res version you see there isn't much snow at all..

From my perspective i generally would want to see -8 uppers minimum on a north wester- the Atlantic modifies the air far too much.

Over to EC, hopefully something more to our taste will unfold..

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mother nature rocks Aficionado

mother nature rocks

Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
Posted

I’m pretty sure by Monday (post ECM 12z) we will all have a big fat grin on our faces. This is NOT a bust yet and NO ships have sailed. 

Phillipe Ferloppe will be making another appearance soon!!!!!

If I’m wrong please feel free to have a swipe @me ( in another thread lol) but I’m very confident!!! 

MNR

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Popular Post
Posted

So, who has the energy for another model chase???  The GFSP in FI throwing up a carbon copy of this failed chase. 

image.thumb.png.3ea491045af2641e745f29d716dbca11.png

Oh go on then!!!

 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

We need a little more faith...

Thats- a decent set rite there...

A few strays..

But decent indeed...

Preditable...but await ec 12z....

MT8_London_ens (14).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Leon1 Seasoned

Leon1

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Posted

What makes this model wobble even more odd is that the NAO is now forecasted to be negative:

Snippet from Gav's video - image.thumb.png.10dacf40c7a180ef7fa56589537d34d8.png

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Nimbusman Contributor

Nimbusman

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Regardless of whether it actually were to go back to an easterly, the fact that the block holds would be no bad thing, if only to keep cold near our shores so any -ve NAO set-up with undercutting lows has a cracking cold pool to tap into.

Quite a large number of runs have that high pressure at least making some effort at resistance, really does seem as you say there is huge uncertainty even at real close range.

Agreed Kold. Also flicking through the ensembles still lots of very cold options on the table and some easterlies still hanging in there... perm 16 and 8 not letting it go! Despite the distinct move away in the last 24 hours there's plenty to play for as we go into Feb. 

image.png

Edited by Nimbusman
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

What makes this model wobble even more odd is that the NAO is now forecasted to be negative:

Snippet from Gav's video - image.thumb.png.10dacf40c7a180ef7fa56589537d34d8.png

NAO and AO forecasts merely reflect what the models are showing. They don’t affect the model output. They are basically just another way of showing the data from the model updates.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Just as a side note we are now seeing the effects of the SSW and it's influence.talking down the guys who have contributed to the subject solves nothing.After all where the pieces fall ie blocking isn't possible to forecast imo so that's how it is.It has been a bit disappointing granted so far and I have had a moan tbh.see how things pan out as JH as mentioned earlier.fi still showing various themes in regard to blocking ete and the 12z EC may uptick towards something akin to yesterday

Edited by swfc
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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

MT8_London_ens (14).png

Still a 20°C range in 850s there, while you can see there is growing support for milder temps, you can't discount those lower members just yet.

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

We need a little more faith...

Thats- a decent set rite there...

A few strays..

But decent indeed...

Preditable...but await ec 12z....

MT8_London_ens (14).png

That’s why I’m not losing hope the  early part of next week isn’t sorted yet there could be a big surprise ahead...

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

JMA 12z looks like it might still deliver but only out to 84

JN84-21.GIF?19-12

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WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted
56 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Would be nice if certain posters explain the change in Synoptics.......Good to see the before and after.....Was it Mjo forcing....poor modeling of the Arctic....Nao not going negative...lack of downwelling from the Strat...etc etc

MJO and Arctic I would say. There's a real struggle with modelling the downwelling and I think that models seem to be suggesting that MJO is overriding the SSW for now. Given the shortish range pickup of micro details it seems likely that something similar may happen at short range either way. Not saying it would resurrect next week's Narnia, but could pickup a short range feature which does deliver more than the coldish pattern that is evident from upper level charts.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Much to be decided..

I will say i'm losing hope Tues will offer much in the way of wintryness away from high ground,APRERGE showing only bits and bats of snow, likely high ground event only..

Crucially, and i apply this to GFS too, the low res APRERGE show lots of snow, its only when you look at the high res version you see there isn't much snow at all..

From my perspective i generally would want to see -8 uppers minimum on a north wester- the Atlantic modifies the air far too much.

Over to EC, hopefully something more to our taste will unfold..

Hopefully --- must admit I thought I had seen  all possible misspellings of ARPEGE but that's a new one!

FV3 run, if missing the initial easterly as we know, is actually a good run, and maybe it is as suggested by @bluearmy a one week delay.  FV3 T336:

image.thumb.jpg.9ad8b7a5d51d8b873aa3b64dce1fd427.jpg

Spliced vortex, like it!

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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snowblind Community Regular

snowblind

Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
Posted
8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

We need a little more faith...

Thats- a decent set rite there...

A few strays..

But decent indeed...

Preditable...but await ec 12z....

MT8_London_ens (14).png

They are surprisingly good in fact. Looks like it could go either way after the 23rd. There are some good precipition spikes as well, can't tell if they are associated with the colder runs or not but interesting set for sure.

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Snowjokes92 Aficionado

Snowjokes92

Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
Posted

Maybe @Glacier Point can shed some light on the current wobble today? Im remaining upbeat, the 12z gefs ensemble are still very much all over after 5 days and rogue runs running to -10 line. Met office 12z to me would need a few tweets to get a decent easterly flow and it hasnt been the best at times at 120 and 144 hours recently. And i know it sounds like scraping barrel but gem more or less gets there? ECM is soon eyes down. 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hopefully, must admit I thought I had seen  all possible misspellings of ARPEGE but that's a new one!

FV3 run, if missing the initial easterly as we know, is actually a good run, and maybe it is as suggested by @bluearmy a one week delay.  FV3 T336:

image.thumb.jpg.9ad8b7a5d51d8b873aa3b64dce1fd427.jpg

Spliced vortex, like it!

 

Haha that made me chuckle Mike

One has to keep a bit of humor at times like these, maybe its an age thing but shrugging of the shoulders always helps for me !

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