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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Wow another bubble burst.weeks of anticipated wintry weather and over 24hours it comes then goes.hopefully things pick up heading threw February on the nhp.🙄

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Unbelievable turnaround, you honestly would not believe it if you didnt know the nightmare that it is getting cold to these isles, joke!

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Hardly unbelievable. It happens often for our part of the globe.

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If the models are going to upgrade I believe ecm will grab the signal first and the rest will follow 24 hours later

just a hunch

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

We are cursed on these isles honestly, all major models in agreement with amazing charts, Icon/Navgen/BOM go for dirge and we always seem to end up with the worst possible outcome, very very frustrating. 

16EF5839-DC98-4FD1-B0DE-0CE5902D9930.gif

Very true. Don’t know why anybody is surprised though. It’s made fools of quite a few people though saying the UKMO won’t be wrong, the ICON is garbage. Just hope people take this as a hard lesson. SSW, good teleconnections and great ensemble suites can all count for nothing,

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While everyone is rightly disappointed with the longer term still snow for many Monday and Tuesday!

Also I think there is still scope for big changes in the next couple of days for the next week or two.

It's not over by any means...

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For those bemoaning our current chart output am I not right in Thinking that the guys with greatest knowledge. GP etc were going with a start date of around the 21st for snow prospects then a possibility of needing a few bites of the cherry before the severest of the weather arrived for the first half of February.  As far as I can see that is still the picture. 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Wow, so disappointing.

I know there is the thrill of the chase and all that but this model watching is too fraught as a hobby living in this country. All sizzle and no sausage eh Steve?

If we were mostly neutrals rather than coldies, it would be fascinating but it's just so rare to get the synoptics we want pinned down at close range, never mind the actual weather itself.

A big snow event on Tues/Weds would have softened the blow, but with the GFS only going for it and not likely to be right we are well and truly scuppered - for now.

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1 minute ago, snowbob said:

If the models are going to upgrade I believe ecm will grab the signal first and the rest will follow 24 hours later

just a hunch

Certainly possible but highly unlikely!

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Amazing how quick things turnaround, watch the ECM produce a beast this evening to tease us all....

Ha that would be pretty funny I have to say!!

Anyway GFS basically has the same weather we had for the first 14 days of January, anticyclonic and probably dull as dishwater!

Unfortunatly the Scandi high that does form may only help to re-enforce the pattern we have until the PV lobe over Canada moves into a more favourable spot.

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, snowbob said:

If the models are going to upgrade I believe ecm will grab the signal first and the rest will follow 24 hours later

just a hunch

I too said the same this morning, I await the ECM tonight and tomorrow morning and see what happens.. 

 

Just because the flip has gone the wrong way, it could go the other way just as easily.. 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I don't. 

I've been here plenty of times when the charts have been looking great. I was actually in here earlier to say how good the 0z GFS looked, before everything else went wrong. 

Maybe if you notice me when it goes wrong, I'm good at forecasting the fails??? 

But that wouldn’t be hard as they all fail 😆😂😂

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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It’s not a blip it’s a change with the high to our north not coming south enough 

 

few weeks to go again 

Arctic highs ...... how many times do we need telling they aren’t well modelled ????  Anyway, it is a blip because the broad overall pattern is unlikely to change 

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Blech! Horrible 144h chart for the UK. Craig disapproves.

UE144-21 (14).gif

UE144-7 (3).gif

0ED9B24800000578-4013820-Craig_Revel_Horwood_pictured_was_on_8_Out_of_10_Cats_on_Tuesday_-a-6_1481209244282.jpg

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Hahahaha! Well.. there we have it. ICON was right after all.

Worth noting this for future reference that UKMO tends to be slower at picking up pattern changes followed by GFS and ECM being first out the gate. It's still cold and there's still going to be snow around but significant cold from the East at least for now looking very unlikely. 

2012 called, it wants it's failed Easterly back..

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im afraid Thats me calling time - All models now increase in forward momentum at about T196-120

Thats me out.

UKMO 144 is a total mess & scatter gun of pressure everywhere 😞😞😞

Shocking run to run consistency across the board really none have painted themselves in glory in the reliable time frames upto 120 hours wobbles or not it’s not good. UKMO charts ecmwf gfs take your pic they all have been woeful this last couple of days. So on that note I’m out to. 👎👎👎

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No doubt big move to ECM most disappointing.. think there’s a little bit mileage in tank but critical levels.

Shallow blocking to northeast is it too late to get something more decent? Day 6 is better than ECM no strong westerlies across n Atlantic.

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???

That UKMO looks as bad as can be - with the Atlantic low disrupting behind the Azores High rather than behind it, it would be a heck of a long way back to cold from there - unless the ridge can miraculously link to those weak heights to the NE at T168

Still expecting an improvement on the ECM later considering the clusters 🙂 but of course "what will be will be" 

Edited by Man With Beard
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GEM 12z still looking ok, better than nothing.:oldrolleyes: 

gemeu-0-138.png

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Please cut out the one liners or off topic posts if they don’t contribute anything to the model debate! A number have been removed recently and it could / should have been more.

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The changes between runs even with the latest GFS suggest nothing is a complete done deal wrt snow opportunities next week. At the very least that's something. Low pressure to the east of the UK between 96-120 may become a more significant feature in future runs. 

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I think those hoping for change are really clutching at straws, once it goes the opposite direction especially this close to the off, it pretty much never changes that dramatically, in fact I don’t think I’ve ever seen it change at t96 for the better. It just won’t happen.

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I normally stay pretty positive but this I didn’t expect, this isn’t a downgrade (which would have been ok) , this is a collapse. Not sure how it can turn on its head so much with positive background signals!! 

If the ECM flips cold now 😂😂😂

Edited by Ali1977
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

That UKMO looks as bad as can be - with the Atlantic low disrupting behind the Azores High rather than behind it, it would be a heck of a long way back to cold from there. 

Still expecting an improvement on the ECM later considering the clusters 🙂 but of course "what will be will be" 

I have to say I think that pattern could lock for a good 7-10 days if that UKMO came off, hopefully we would eventually get a good HLB over Greenland like what the ensembles have been strongly hinting at, otherwise this could well be another few weeks bitten the dust.

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Arctic highs ...... how many times do we need telling they aren’t well modelled ????  Anyway, it is a blip because the broad overall pattern is unlikely to change 

The broad pattern didn’t see this coming 

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

We are cursed on these isles honestly, all major models in agreement with amazing charts, Icon/Navgen/BOM go for dirge and we always seem to end up with the worst possible outcome, very very frustrating. 

16EF5839-DC98-4FD1-B0DE-0CE5902D9930.gif

Misleading - all major models were NOT in agreement and most certainly not in the realistic time frame! The positives from all of this are that there will be some major lessons learnt from this in terms of;

1) No single model can claim kudos, supreme status - the verification stats prove they are much of a muchness.

2) It was never within the magic marker of T96, so should we really be surprised? 

3) If one of the big 3 shows mild (less cold), it will most likely be right 

4) SSW...not always the path to glory...

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