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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, john mac said:

Local forecast for Boston MA says 14hrs of snow before it turns to rain. 

GFS and most mesoscale models have really warmed up the 850hpa layer, so latest runs give about 6hrs of light-moderate snow before abit of freezing rain. ECM really nailed that set-up. Really markedly warmer though in the mid levels on the last few runs.

ps, the UKMO also has gone. Well done on the ICON as well, first saw the change and the others have really followed its lead.

Edited by kold weather
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8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Talking of downgrades, the NE states have gone from a 12-18 inch snow event to a leading edge snow into rain type event looking at the 12z suite, quite a large shift (towards ECM).

They must be gutted inland😉

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Messy at 120 just about sums it up. Screams uncertainty to be honest at that point.

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1 minute ago, john mac said:

Awful????

Yes T120 confirms this ship has sailed

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Hopefully get these charts into high res

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Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes T120 confirms this ship has sailed

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We would have been jumping for joy last year. 

We still have low heights that’s a good thing 

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Like I've said, blends and domino effect...Ukmo so lauded now follows with its tail between its legs.

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Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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We are cursed on these isles honestly, all major models in agreement with amazing charts, Icon/Navgen/BOM go for dirge and we always seem to end up with the worst possible outcome, very very frustrating. 

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A definate step back this afternoon..

Lets hope its just models still in confuse of decipher of the large scale params!!!

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UKMO 144. Unfortunately it has followed the ECM.😔

 

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

ps, the UKMO also has gone. Well done on the ICON as well, first saw the change and the others have really followed its lead.

I disagree. The ICON has flipped since yesterday. All it tells us is that it was a finely balanced situation. All the models showed it at one point or another.

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1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

We would have been jumping for joy last year. 

We still have low heights that’s a good thing 

Absolutely, the next ship due in a few days!!

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???

If its going to fail then wqe may as well kick the ridge to the east as fast as possible and get back into a more mobile flow which could help us develop into another cold attempt. Wonder where the GFS goes later on and whether it builds a decent HLB again deeper into the run.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???

It’s not a blip it’s a change with the high to our north not coming south enough 

 

few weeks to go again 

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes T120 confirms this ship has sailed

image.thumb.jpg.3ada72dc17c7e1a8756a3016f7578591.jpg

But in this set up ships will be like buses, another will be along soon👍👍

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Pretty much game set and match on the ukmo!!and also we shall be looking at another week.or so of winter eaten away and thats of anything wintry actually shows up!!

Just because the BFTE isn't happening doesn't mean it won't snow per Tuesday event and next week 

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Unbelievable turnaround, you honestly would not believe it if you didnt know the nightmare that it is getting cold to these isles, joke!

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1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

I disagree. The ICON has flipped since yesterday. All it tells us is that it was a finely balanced situation. All the models showed it at one point or another.

Still gotta give it credit, it saw the flip first, and not the first time it has picked up such shifts in our neck of the woods either, good or bad...

ECM also has done well with spotting this earlier than the rest as well sadly. Hopefully the upstream pattern doesn't mess us up for too long.

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1 minute ago, danm said:

UKMO 144. Unfortunately it has followed the ECM.😔

 

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What strikes me about that is how well-structured the vortex appears to be, which might reinforce earlier posts from stratosphere experts that suggested that the tropospheric vortex is resisting the effects of the SSW.

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Is still don’t believe this is a done deal yet tbh, far from it and imo there could still be upgrades. Fair enough if it dosnt start to link up tomorrow then yeah that ship may of sailed but it’s still too soon to be saying it’s game over 

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Worth noting the GFS 12z is still showing what looks to be a middle ground compromise, and certainly a lot better than the ICON and UKMO at the same time.

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7 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM huge backtrack as The Slug fights back.  Its a big swipe at such short timescale, for me it makes it poor as well as the others....because if it was so good how come such a climb down at such short range.?  Ah well.....we definitely ain’t there yet 

 

BFTP

ECM backtracked to extreme as was the incredible easterly? As I followed up with.  Yes I think so as I expect a little more vigour in the initial dropping trough.  UKMO had moved ‘towards’ ECM as expected.....but no disaster as mot jumped on board but chucked a line to pull them together to get a solution..... and ‘primed’ for a much better diving trough to follow.  

 

BFTP

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