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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Icon back closer to its 00z output 

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Part 1 of the easterly downgrade nearly complete on the icon!!3 more potential downgrades left lol gfs ukmo and ecm!!!low coming out of states much further east!!

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Icon back closer to its 00z output 

You have to laugh really..

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icon-0-132.png?19-12

Can that low drop down from the north?

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Yep, cross ICON off as flipping: icon-0-132.thumb.png.7066d06a71d3a24ca9b53daf55097ec4.png

Maybe even more progressive with a breakdown...

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25 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Hard to tell but does that storm look a little North-West of where the GFS predicted it?

999702691_Screenshot2019-01-19at14_49_20.thumb.png.13d6b85792b48514f26f90410a0d2d5c.pngGFS.thumb.png.8c95cf79955cc007eab7a0b0f0f187aa.png

I doubt you can compare a satellite photo very well as the chart will be distorted due to the impossibility of projecting the globe accurately onto a flat surface. In addition, the scale will be slightly different.

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2 minutes ago, TomW said:

icon-0-132.png?19-12

Can that low drop down from the north?

To be honest, it would make more sense to me if it did within the current pattern ....a toned down version of the Tuesday feature 

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yep, cross ICON off as flipping: icon-0-132.thumb.png.7066d06a71d3a24ca9b53daf55097ec4.png

Maybe even more progressive with a breakdown...

Domino effect...expect them all to blend into a messy halfway house come 7pm.

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5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yep, cross ICON off as flipping: icon-0-132.thumb.png.7066d06a71d3a24ca9b53daf55097ec4.png

Maybe even more progressive with a breakdown...

Yes it appears Shannon has arrived on the scene and she's brought her mate Entropy with her......

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20 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, generally rare to see frontal back edge snow in the south with a northwesterly polar flow undercutting, but an arctic northerly flow can produce back-edge snowfalls in the south, 25th Jan 2004 nationwide thundersnow event along a potent cold front moving south a good example. Be nice to experience here in the south back edge snow with a NWly undercutting for once though!

I think Winter 2000 saw nationwide snow from a Northwesterly but it's as people say it's not often that happens in the south of the uk

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Off we go 12z.

With the US storm slightly west and less weaker.. Could that have positive effects for us?

Fingers crossed!

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Yes I'm still with METO on this.

Monday evening through to Tuesday looks interesting with 528 dam present

fax84s.gif

GFSOPUK06_69_10.png

GFSOPUK06_69_53.png

Edited by Norrance
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Is the UKMO model about to suffer a credibility dent? I’d be amazed if it sticks to its guns. Or is there another twist to this?

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5 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Off we go 12z.

With the US storm slightly west and less weaker.. Could that have positive effects for us?

Fingers crossed!

Does "Less Weaker" mean stronger"!

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At 36 hours low pressure slightly further east in the us and also slightly less dig of atlantic low!!could have big impacts later on in the run good or bad!

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

At 36 hours low pressure slightly further east in the us and also slightly less dig of atlantic low!!could have big impacts later on in the run good or bad!

Sorry shaky but it won’t make any difference ......

if you want to make an observation at T60, the jet is slightly east than it was on the 06z, so no gfs miracle on Tuesdays system 

Edited by bluearmy
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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

At 36 hours low pressure slightly further east in the us and also slightly less dig of atlantic low!!could have big impacts later on in the run good or bad!

Or not eh? 😩😩🤣🤣

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Talking of downgrades, the NE states have gone from a 12-18 inch snow event to a leading edge snow into rain type event looking at the 12z suite, quite a large shift (towards ECM).

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DD87897F-48BA-46FE-B4D4-1860BE2806E2.thumb.gif.149718c9c08f835affdd334b67389834.gif

UKMO 96hrs

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Crunch time, fellow posters, and there's no build up, the first UKMO chart is the T96 for reasons which I have never understood, anyway here it is and it looks....

image.thumb.jpg.14bd62fff564c417772adcfd04480c23.jpg

Awful, no chance that link up with the Arctic high.

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UW96-21.GIF?19-16

 

UKMO 96. Nice Artic high there though...

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Could be a very snowy day on Tuesday for those in Ne Scotland if that low sits there and wraps around. Also still got a good backedge event regardless of what the models do.

Expect a downgrade from the 12z suite and start to look ahead to other set-ups, to quote something, 'its dead Jim'.

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Crunch time, fellow posters, and there's no build up, the first UKMO chart is the T96 for reasons which I have never understood, anyway here it is and it looks....

image.thumb.jpg.14bd62fff564c417772adcfd04480c23.jpg

Awful, no chance that link up with the Arctic high.

Awful????

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F4214A58-A671-4221-BA85-EB2378E704F7.thumb.gif.1bddbedc5d1faafe823916068a091458.gif

UKMO 120hrs

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