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Paul

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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Funnily enough, the clusters offer some solace ....... there is one of the main two (37%) which is very Ukmo ...the op cluster is by far the smallest in the important timeframes  - by day 8 we are paying sinking the trough across us again 

Edited by bluearmy

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

FAr from the worst case scenario, still plenty of chances of snow events, though the locations that are most favoured has rather flipped round!

Here comes the kicker low at 264hrs by the way, heights will rise soon afterwards near Greenland, lets hope its enough!

PS, as hard as it will be to watch, once the jet drops we WANT Euorpe to be as cold as possible as that's the air we will be importing, it would reduce marginality.

It's a disaster. Simple as that. 0z at least kept the possibility of an Easterly after the first failure. Now we're back to late December 2018 model watching. Again looking at 300+ hours for a good blocking, a good ridge of the Azores high into the Atlantic etc. 

I'm clearly disappointed so sorry for being a bit pessimistic. I hope UKMO will not flip but I fear the worse. 

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And, after going round the houses, and back, our old friend, 06Z portends another episode in Netwix's The Slidergate Saga...Is Susan Hampshire still with us?:cold::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.4b625ed6dd86f2718c81d2609318da91.png  Et voila! image.thumb.png.0bc7df6f872daa414987e68ed6e71b5d.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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If you live in the North/West you want the current GFS run to verify all day long - absolute perfection!☃️

Plus I can’t see much to moan about for the rest of the UK and Ireland - looks cold/wintry throughout? 

Bring it on!!!!! 

Nothing DYER about this run!!! 😁😂

 

 

 

DD269EB5-11C4-4A59-B0D1-9C5D9E599CC4.png

344839BF-6C48-415B-8049-1DAE80830436.png

270580A0-0011-4066-8A84-FF7437A4F54B.png

Edited by Mr Frost

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Funnily enough, the clusters offer some solace ....... there is one of the main two (37%) which is very Ukmo ...the op cluster is by far the smallest in the important timeframes  - by day 8 we are paying sinking the trough across us again 

Yep, another great FI run in terms of blowibg up those heights, and its a proper block that forms, this is the 4/5th run in a row to really go bombastic with the heights, strong signal for sure!

I have to say the 06z GFS in my mind maybe close to where we end up, kind of a middle ground between the models, plus could sneak a brief easterly still in that set-up.

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2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

It's a disaster. Simple as that. 0z at least kept the possibility of an Easterly after the first failure. Now we're back to late December 2018 model watching. Again looking at 300+ hours for a good blocking, a good ridge of the Azores high into the Atlantic etc. 

I'm clearly disappointed so sorry for being a bit pessimistic. I hope UKMO will not flip but I fear the worse. 

Low Res GFS 06Z NH profile is about the best that we ever see.

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Are we not just seeing in the last few days the 2 extreames of this pattern. Surely a middle ground scenario is most likely. Also as Steve said earlier, while the UKMO is playing ball at a short timeframe. There’s all to play for still. Enjoy!!

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So the charts are on a bit of a downer this morning, though I don't think its anything worth worrying about at this stage, if it can turn like that just over night, then it can still easily change back the next 24 hours. 

I'm concentrating between now and Tuesday in the meantime, with cold and potential snow in the shorter time frame. Its a good start compared to anything we have seen really this winter so far 🙂 

I am keeping the faith for now still 

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6 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

It's a disaster. Simple as that. 0z at least kept the possibility of an Easterly after the first failure. Now we're back to late December 2018 model watching. Again looking at 300+ hours for a good blocking, a good ridge of the Azores high into the Atlantic etc. 

I'm clearly disappointed so sorry for being a bit pessimistic. I hope UKMO will not flip but I fear the worse. 

Nah mate, good solid signal which fits with longer range MJO/tropical forcing which the Scandi high didn't really, plus fits nicely with the longer range forecasts. A long way out BUT Dec 10, Mar 13 and Feb 18 all had similar strong signals in FI which came in with time.

But even take that away, we get snow on Tuesday, we get good snowfall in the east from the front as it comes in on Sunday, and further heavy falls for the north from the WNW flow, I think it goes above average for maybe 24hrs that whole run??

I mean, if your angry, take a look at the Bartlett winter of 97-98, then see tnhat actually its not that bad really!

Edited by kold weather

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.b6503d0b6329eb6e8412fb2befe0391d.png

Patience grasshoppes!! Its not like we been waiting since November!!

I jest of course, but the outllok , bar the odd day or two, looks anything but mild..

🙂

But we’re back to chasing day 16 . Really can’t be bothered with all that . We then get down to 5,6,7 days and disappear out of no where . 

If this UKMO  gets repeated on the 12z then we might just scrape something . Let’s hope it repeats. 👍

0289B235-D4F1-4D32-B3F2-96B79C9B7C1D.gif

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So just read through 20+ pages and we have gone from joy to toy slinging in space of 6 hours. Yes the gfs was showing 1947 style charts last night. But we should never discount the ecm. It’s top performance model for a reason. And who’s to say today’s output is correct anyway. They are only model output trying to work out what could happen. Mother Nature can make a fool of us all. 

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Greenland looks so pretty in yellow :air_kiss:

seriously though, it does look like if our first bite doesn’t come off, we will have plenty of further attempts. Winter is by NO means over 👍 

plus, I’ve a hunch the 12z could look different.. 😉 

 

How come you thnk it will look different and would it accelerate into the reliable time frame 

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

In the short term, the GFS 06Z is the perfect fudge I have in mind atm

Comparing ECM clusters for last night and this morning for T144, interestingly you can see the change is quite subtle, namely the euro trough slightly east, and very slight uptick on the Atlantic low. Also, the Ecm op was, in fact, in the outlier cluster. That brings hope that it was in actual fact at the extreme of progressive solutions:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011812_156.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011900_144.

The clusters from today's 0z set are interesting.  Cluster 2 looks like the jackpot scenario we were looking at on yesterday's output, so good to see it is still in the mix at decent probability.  Cluster 1 looks like a mess that we could potentially recover from.  And as others have noted the op sits in the worst and least likely one.  

And all 4 sit in the Atlantic ridge category (purple border).

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ending beautifully-

image.thumb.png.3ed600dc4577ed378096b6dabcb582d2.png

While we have the euro low we are in the game- 

OK this pain in the rear storm over the states has delayed the progression, i still think we will get our jackpot..

Indeed, but what happens if we get another pain in the rear storm over he states down the line?

We need even this downgrade to be within t72 imo....to verify

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

But we’re back to chasing day 16 . Really can’t be bothered with all that . We then get down to 5,6,7 days and disappear out of no where . 

If this UKMO  gets repeated on the 12z then we might just scrape something . Let’s hope it repeats. 👍

0289B235-D4F1-4D32-B3F2-96B79C9B7C1D.gif

Not really day 16 mate, pattern is already well underway by day-8 if you know where to look, but give the easterly up, its not happening the way we hoped it would, we move on and go again.

ust because one set-up failed, doesn't mea the 2nd or even 3rd will.

Such thinking is what got the states caught out by hurricane Michael this year. They have had years of storms weakening into landfall and people started to speculate that storms can't strengthen into landfall and that it will always weaken...except Michael strengthened all the way in.

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3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Oh dear, back to chasing charts that are 2 weeks away. Imagine if we'd been doing that since November. Fortunately we're not insane.

Or just waiting to see if the 12z bears any fruit...

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed, but what happens if we get another pain in the rear storm over he states down the line?

 

BFTP

The pattern is super robust on the GFS and its being reflected well in the EPS and the GFS ensembles as well. Its got far more going for it than the scandi high ever originally had. It was only the arctic high coming down that really gave it some bite in the last 36hrs of runs.

Your right in that it could go wrong of course at this stage, but its reminding me a lot of Dec 10/Mar 13 at the moment and it does fit with the general trends of the long range models. We will probably have quite a few cyclonic lows nearby us in such a set-up...

Edited by kold weather

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What a turn around things trending the wrong way, disgusting it’s like the models do it on purpose! 

I HATE THE AZORES HIGH

6607E01A-098F-49DB-B4F4-8932B92A02CE.png

FDA7B491-B080-411C-9BD8-BF054D69B38D.png

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1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

How come you thnk it will look different and would it accelerate into the reliable time frame 

It *could* look different.

The spread of options on the table makes it entirely plausible that we will be picking our jaws off the table come 7pm. 

I’m not putting a % on it, because it’s like playing roulette at the moment! 

Fascinating to watch though! 

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Just now, kold weather said:

The pattern is super robust on the GFS and its being reflected well in the EPS and the GFS ensembles as well. Its got far more going for it than the scandi high ever originally had. It was only the arctic high coming down that really gave it some bite in the last 36hrs of runs.

Scandi HP was always transient effect for U.K.  initially for me......although I did expect a more vigorous trough over us next week but that is shallowing on current runs.  Within t72 then I’ll review that affair

 

BFTP 

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