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Paul

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well anything that shies away from a very cold scenario (a la gfs) is uplifting

Did you notice the eps going more convincingly neg on the AO/NAO towrads the turn of the month ...gefs still solidly so ..........

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I'm thinking that This might be a system that will pass the south of uk like meto s wording regarding possible less cold at times in South?? 

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well anything that shies away from a very cold scenario (a la gfs) is uplifting

Understood.

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening?

Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are means so do tend to be less up/down compared to the synoptic 6 or 12 hourly outputs. Indeed I would suggest it might be a better idea to simply look at the synoptic 500 mb chart run to run or better still to compare like runs, you may have heard that somewhere else before!

Anyway

The ECMWF-GFS this morning

Not surprisingly they are not that different to what they have predicted over the past 4 or 5 days, see below

Atlantic ridging towards Greenland and EC still with GFS now showing a building of ridging over Scandinavia with an extension west towards Greenland. Something that the occasional run on the 6 hours outputs has suggested. Marked troughing on both remains into Europe.

The configuration on these two shows lower contour heights on EC compared to GFS. However on both the upper flow shows the cold will persist over the next 6-10 days. Okay it may wax and wane but no signal showing for any mild air for the UK.

So what about NOAA and it has a chart that covers 8-14 days out.

The 6-10 last evening, largely between the UK and Scandinavia well north with the flow dropping into the European trough. About a week ago the contour flow had the slightest hint of this. The actual +ve height anomaly is show away from any of this, just off the American coast. With such a meridional flow obviously the contour heights over the UK area are higher than the other two. This has little effect ob surface temperatures, indeed if there is any surface ridging in between weather systems might create lower values at the surface. To me the strong flow out of America does leave a question mark for day to day. Will any deepening systems move NE or SE once into the eastern Atlantic?  With the deep trough east of the UK one would expect them to steer SE or ESE, which may provide some excitement if they get close to the UK. Looking at their 8-14 day chart and perhaps the most interesting change from the 6-10 is the increase in –ve heights over NW Europe. Again little signal for any mild air. That is unless we get a flow not easterly but SE/or worse SSE with air originating from the Med. Nothing to be concerned about in the next 6-10 days but a possibility beyond that.

So, overall the cold will continue, the synoptic models will come and go so to speak on its depth and ideas on where/when any ppn will occur. Up to 24 hours out forget what the models may predict, they are right a few times at longer time scales but not often. Just think back to summer set ups and how often they get the rainfall correct? In winter there are another 8 or so additional variables to get right.

Hope this summary helps calm the nerves a little.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Don't you just love this MAN!! Calm within a storm

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Did you notice the eps going more convincingly neg on the AO/NAO towrads the turn of the month ...gefs still solidly so ..........

Yes but I thought I'd already implied that that with the renewed Alaskan ridging into the Arctic and the later anomaly chart

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

One last post from me-

Since 2012 I have stuck with the UKMO model as its prone to least volatility-

Add to that in 2013 & 'most' slider scenarios it had a grip on proceedings whilst GFS mainly but ECM also swung around -

At 96-120 I can count on my fingers & thumbs the amount of times UKMOs got it wrong, however ECM op 96-144 has been countless times both in to much blocking & also to much zonality bias - IE large swings-

My form horse is the UKMO with others falling into line this eve... A 3/4 way house to the amplified solution & the energy will split in the atlantic with the shortwave spoiler heading towards Portugal..

I agree, never trust a cold spell until the MetO model is on board but don't abandon it until the MetO jumps ship.

MetO still the best in the world, it's a scandal that the BBC dropped them.

Andy

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12 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Well that was a big disappointment. Guess GFS P was right all along when it was showing those flat charts a few days ago.

More often than not, GFS catches up with ecmwf. It's rarely the other way round.

Back to wet and windy I guess

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

I no I should not put this here gfs says yes to colder outlook and also ukmet and gem. Ecm says no we back to a south westerly late next week   Surely The meto further ahead whihin 6 days has this right colder then very cold later this week i expect a big u turn later regarding ecm.

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See told people this system was causing huge problems for the models fl is about 48 hours 

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Watching the GFS 6z. Early yet but I think heights to our north are looking slightly better early on.

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6z has the low ever so slightly west at 66-

 

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A 100-mile shift of the pattern west compared to the 0z:

anim_rcz7.gif

 

 

Edited by IDO
wrong

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

One last post from me-

Since 2012 I have stuck with the UKMO model as its prone to least volatility-

Add to that in 2013 & 'most' slider scenarios it had a grip on proceedings whilst GFS mainly but ECM also swung around -

At 96-120 I can count on my fingers & thumbs the amount of times UKMOs got it wrong, however ECM op 96-144 has been countless times both in to much blocking & also to much zonality bias - IE large swings-

My form horse is the UKMO with others falling into line this eve... A 3/4 way house to the amplified solution & the energy will split in the atlantic with the shortwave spoiler heading towards Portugal..

That's a post I 100% agree with, the UKMO is very impressive when it comes to these systems, and it tends to be more right than wrong when it comes to easterly airflows.

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I think we just lost another week ...........

TBF it’s been one of them winters , where it just keeps going wrong . Just got that feeling that we’re not gonna get a decent cold spell ie at least a 5-7 days . I feel it will just be fleeting glances 😞. I just don’t know what it takes for us to get a decent wintry spell in winter . 

This was showing on the EC T168 yesterday on the 00z - 36609E35-674B-4843-9938-A77A1BD73FC7.thumb.png.23cc25711bd65650eabfa7ddbc806389.png

Yet today we have this - 76C232A8-58F4-41AD-A1AD-2EF71192B979.thumb.png.37537904bea90f719a4e48917e5e21ea.png

It has still got chance to change back because UKMO is not backing it but I really really can’t see the EC op and the whole ens suit being wrong . One thing is for sure it has to be sorted on the 12s tonight . Surely ?? Gutted absolutely gutted . 😥

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z has the low ever so slightly west at 66-

 

Amazing this is what this thread is all about man!!just woke up and icon upgrades to a different level and gfs now looks slightly better at 72 hours!!!crucial set of 12z runs coming up in a few hours!!

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Surely at D3 the GFS cannot be wrong with the snow for Tuesday?

gfs-2-72.thumb.png.752fd18daae1806dda3aaac679183062.pnggfs-0-78.thumb.png.3276cb84c5ebaca5f2a73905f172f98c.png

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Just now, IDO said:

Surely at D3 the GFS cannot be wrong with the snow for Tuesday?

gfs-2-72.thumb.png.752fd18daae1806dda3aaac679183062.pnggfs-0-78.thumb.png.3276cb84c5ebaca5f2a73905f172f98c.png

Its certainly very snowy across much of the country..

Whether its right is another matter entirely..

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

Surely at D3 the GFS cannot be wrong with the snow for Tuesday?

gfs-2-72.thumb.png.752fd18daae1806dda3aaac679183062.pnggfs-0-78.thumb.png.3276cb84c5ebaca5f2a73905f172f98c.png

Yes it can - it always overdoes snow, especially on them meteociel snow charts, Netweather's ones are at least a bit more accurate without exactly having a correlation of 1.

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50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

also, the suggestion that the n American east coast trough is going to scupper our cold is not borne out by the general ens modelling which has consistency proved a trough there and over Europe ...... there are no ‘hard and fast rules’ on this .....fwiw, I think that this deep trough upstream will assist in generating the greeny ridge we seek ........

On to the next search then

 

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As usual with model output for any weather set up its the short term predictions which will set up what the longer term will be so if the ECM is wrong in the short term then the whole output in terms of the direction its heading will most likely to be wrong but if its correct then the UKMO and GFS easterly prediction will most likely to be incorrect.

Its all about just how much Atlantic amplification we will see which determines how quickly that trough heads through us and into Europe which leads to any easterly flow. 

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I must admit that I'm a wee bit confused: 

For the past week or so, the ECM has been referred to as 'King of Models' and 'The Gold Standard'; not today though - today, it's the UKMO that is king... Is that because it's still predicting Snowmageddon?

Anywho, that aside, it's not even February (the best month for easterly blasts) yet!:santa-emoji::cold:

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The wedge to our east a little stronger which delivers the 50/100 mile correction west ....will see if that holds further into the run as Atlantic amplification not really affected at this stage 

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Another close call coming up on the 06z GFS operational, not falling in line with the ECM yet though either.

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