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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Yesterdays 12z cluster saw the OP in the second largest. The two top clusters are incredibly close % wise 

2512C276-78D3-4686-9921-984F9C469A51.thumb.png.77e859eb94ae61abead65cf9e4986339.png

I’m not saying the ECM wont be right, just being cautious re: massive over reactions given large variation & range of solutions post 96hrs. 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

What  actual use are the ens in an all or nothing scenario? 

The ECM is going down a route that only had 8% cluster support yesterday. 

The ens are always a good guide in my experience- if the ens follow the det then i accept we are moving away from a cold easterly..

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Ironically the CMA has been the most consistent out of all the models..

It’s going to be a very tense 6z GFS this morning

Crazy start to the day,  seemed all good earlier, went back to sleep and have awoken to ECM carnage. 6z will be interesting but hard to trust, the 12z's will be eagerly awaited. Good job it's Saturday for full viewing, who needs TV when you have this kind of drama!! 

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The drama on here happens every year and from experience no model is ever right beyond 2 to 3 days but one may pick up a different signal and then as that time frame gets closer all models diverge on a solution of that signal.

If you're of a nervous disposition then only look at 48 - 72 hours range as after that there is almost always disagreement and the nerves start kicking in.

Personally I don't mind seeing the FI charts beyond 72, it's fascinating seeing how the different models work and seeing all the different outcomes but that's the thing they ask show a possible outcome however unlikely but into its at 0 we won't know which one was correct.

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Wow feels like we've woken up back December looking at this mornings ECM and a very poor start to the weekend. Just goes to show once again we can all talk about what is going to happen at D8/9/10/11/12 etc but in reality computer modelling in some instances still struggles hugely at D4 but I guess that's what makes model watching in the UK so painful/interesting where we actually an incredibly dull and extremeless climate. 

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Blimey ukmo vs ECM.

ECM is the king of the models stats wise, but the UKMO in these solutions is normally the first one off the bus. The fact it's still going cold does give some comfort this morning. 

If it does jump off, that will probably be game over 

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At t120 you can see the UKMO and GFS make more of the arctic high to shut the door on the spoiler shortwave compared to the ECM.

The UKMO shows the best output IMO in regards to the arctic high.

 

Edit Northwestsnow beat me to it.

FAD8D3CB-A9B1-4992-8756-26FF19648984.gif

BDCA734F-01E3-40EF-9A44-B7F8C90DD3F0.png

3A16C672-4F59-4A46-BB94-40A71179EEED.png

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Hi guys, I'm Jack. I've been stalking these forums for maybe 2 years now and I finally thought I'd register and bless you all with my presence. 

 

Praying for the GFS later on today, it all looked and felt so promising yesterday, hope the ECM sorts itself out on its next run. What time does the 6z and 12z update? Thanks guys  

Welcome to the madness. 

Try having a play around with Metiociel

Global Forecasting System (GFS)

 GFS Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0330-0445 | 06Z 0930-1045 | 12Z 1530-1645 | 18Z 2130-2245 (GMT)

00Z 0430-0545 | 06Z 1030-1145 | 12Z 1630-1745 | 18Z 2230-2345 (BST)

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

 GEFS Viewer

 (+/- 10 mins)

00Z 0550 | 06Z 1150 | 12Z 1750 | 18Z 2350 (GMT)

00Z 0650 | 06Z 1250 | 12Z 1850 | 18Z 0050 (BST)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

 ECMWF Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (GMT)

00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)

 UKMO Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0500-0600 | 12Z 1700-1800 (GMT)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office FAX (FAX)

 FAX Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 1030 | 12Z 2230 (GMT)

00Z 1130 | 12Z 2330 (BST)

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Reasonable support for the ECM det from the EPS at day 5 However the spreads could be quite high even at this range.  Still all to play for.  Things are trending backwards but it's far from "game over".

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When the ICON spotted that cut off low to the SW it was a game changer, ECM quickly followed and now the GFS has it. That looks like its banked and with that, the dynamics have changed.

The cut-off low forces the next wave of heights through the trough and its force is far more a driver than without it. We can see the two charts from the GFS today and yesterday:

Today>gfseu-13-180.thumb.png.d45c40ade0567d9a8f74688a6d3bde54.pngYesterday>gfseu-13-204.thumb.png.01b10df148b92053b17bab0bc85f4376.png

Yesterday the warmer air distributed along a large front, today (with the cut-off low acting as a funnel for energy) the warmer uppers push directly east and heights will accordingly flatten the pattern.

The Control stalls the wave behind the trough/cut off low and pushes a mini-wedge into the Canadian lobe, flattening the pattern even more.

This now looks like a done deal, GFS slower to the take so more likely to move towards the ECM with time. Unless this feature suddenly disappears then another false dawn. These are spoiler lows, we see then kill modelled cold spells and they rarely show up till relatively late in the day. A few more runs for confirmation but now we are looking into FI again and looking at the GEFS I suspect this missed opportunity maybe costly.

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Reasonable support for the ECM det from the EPS at day 5 However the spreads could be quite high even at this range.  Still all to play for.  Things are trending backwards but it's far from "game over"

Can't say I'm that surprised, at that range you would hope the ensembles would support the operational.

I'm looking forward to trawling through them all and see the way things look after.

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From memory I think the meto runs at a very good resolution out to day 3 or 4 but it then drops off. Could be wrong on this but sure I read it somewhere, I find that it’s usually the best short term model but I’m not a big fan of its day 6 chart for accuracy, once something gets to day 5 though you don’t often bet against it,

the reality is though that at the range we are talking of nothing can be ignored and that includes the cannon fodder models. 

 

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Anyone have verification stats to show which model typically performs better around the Southern tip of Greenland? 

I'm not sure they exist, they probably do for the US and definitely as a hemisphere average but I've never seen it anywhere else.

So probably just subjective analysis is the way forwards.

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4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Welcome to the madness. 

Try having a play around with Metiociel

Global Forecasting System (GFS)

 GFS Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0330-0445 | 06Z 0930-1045 | 12Z 1530-1645 | 18Z 2130-2245 (GMT)

00Z 0430-0545 | 06Z 1030-1145 | 12Z 1630-1745 | 18Z 2230-2345 (BST)

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

 GEFS Viewer

 (+/- 10 mins)

00Z 0550 | 06Z 1150 | 12Z 1750 | 18Z 2350 (GMT)

00Z 0650 | 06Z 1250 | 12Z 1850 | 18Z 0050 (BST)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

 ECMWF Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (GMT)

00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)

 UKMO Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0500-0600 | 12Z 1700-1800 (GMT)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office FAX (FAX)

 FAX Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 1030 | 12Z 2230 (GMT)

00Z 1130 | 12

HAHA thankyou, happy to be a part of it all. Will be watching all models with anticipation and dread!

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Following on from the above post here is 120, you can see why the 96 makes a big diff..

UK 120

image.thumb.png.a16cb6c69c6bddd36c4bf8ec5fa982a4.png

EC 120

image.thumb.png.e3d69178e0fe67abbc33b45d9172c2bf.png

That

 

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO v EC

96 is where they diverge- i would always put my money on UKMET at 96.

ukmo 96

image.thumb.png.947bf7805b204ae73bc55b9d9b79fc03.png

EC

image.thumb.png.256333488a6d4350120cd66639fa8785.png

The difference is subtle, but really important moving forward from there.

Thanks Northwest 

For newbies that is the prefect example of the much maligned GIN corridor of death to easterly 

Ukmo shows artic / mid Atlantic ridge connection

 

EcM shows GIN corridor of death ( ie too many energy , no clean separation of trigger low, no artic / MAR link up

 

been here so many times over last 15 years on this fantastic forum 

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Ok, I'm going to do some mega straw clutching here. Didn't I read somewhere that the EC op runs at a higher resolution than the other models? And that this sometimes causes it issues with seeing things that, in reality, just won't be there. If that's the case then it should be at the top of its ensembles, if not a mild outlier from day four. Once it gets more actual observational data fed in it should begin to correct itself. So we should see corrections this evening and tomorrow so that it should be fully back onboard by Monday.  Or have I just started another conspiracy theory?

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11 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Here the UKMO from yesterdays 00z , looks pretty dire with the low coming over the top of the ridge

UN144-18.thumb.gif.c7fd0529c9f4f769a610e0200ff3cfc8.gif

Yesterdays 12z slowed the low and held it long enough at the southern tip of Greenland long enough for the ridge to connect with the arctic ridge and again with this mornings 00z now at T120.

UN120-19.thumb.gif.a887142700f180f67c1e5eec8aec224d.gif

So clearly UKMO had a bit of a wobble and how many times is it said in here that we need to see the UKMO on board .

I cant really see the UKMO back-tracking to yesterdays 00z , specially after 2 good runs since then, i reckon it has already resolved the shortwave drama and the ECM hasn`t grasped the hold up yet hence the difference. 

 

 

 

I remember before some years back ECM at 120 was going for an Easterly, and ukmo was not. We all assumed the king ECMwas correct, but it was ukmo that was correct. Its very messy. 12z should confirm the artic high issue. 

Edited by snowice
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The EPS in the medium term (days 6-8) definitely trending backwards.  Looks a lot more troughy around the UK allied with losing any tenuous heights to the north.  Not great sadly but it's just one suite.

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