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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

But even the UKMO and GFS were not as good with gfs some how just scraping through. UKMO could have gone either way. So what ever way we cut it Last nites Icon spotted that pesky Shortwave and now the other models have caught up. Sucks but it's how it is unfortunately.

But what happens if the ICON is wrong and then starts to go the other way over the weekend? ?

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

But even the UKMO and GFS were not as good with gfs some how just scraping through. UKMO could have gone either way. So what ever way we cut it Last nites Icon spotted that pesky Shortwave and now the other models have caught up. Sucks but it's how it is unfortunately.

Given GFS was showing runs that would give 1947 a run for its money it’s really not a surprise that it’s no longer showing it, it was a cold outlier. 

GFS/UKMO both good this morning, still cold with Easterly winds. ECM is very poor but continues to be the odd one out in the big three. 

No point being so reactive, one Det run does not end a cold spell, nothing has really changed. As ever, more runs needed 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Just now, Surrey said:

But what happens if the ICON is wrong and then starts to go the other way over the weekend? ?

It might. But usually once the dreaded shortwaves are modelled, there’s no way back.

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3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

But even the UKMO and GFS were not as good with gfs some how just scraping through. UKMO could have gone either way. So what ever way we cut it Last nites Icon spotted that pesky Shortwave and now the other models have caught up. Sucks but it's how it is unfortunately.

I know imagine the icon out of all models!!it has done it before though!!i think by 12z we shall have a full house regarding next week cos everythings unravelled very quickly this morning!!once these downgrades happen early on in the models its hard to bring them back!!

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Just now, Surrey said:

But what happens if the ICON is wrong and then starts to go the other way over the weekend? ?

If the ECM, ICON, switch back i will go skinny dipping in lake Windermere lol. It's the other models as well though they took a big step towards the Icon.

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3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

If the ECM, ICON, switch back i will go skinny dipping in lake Windermere lol. It's the other models as well though they took a big step towards the Icon.

Also the way gfs and ukmo have gonle towards the ecm regarding that low near greenland suggests to me icon and ecm are correct!!

 

Anyway as much as i want it to upgrade  i be back for the 06zs for more downgrades lol!!!

Edited by shaky
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Incredible the change this morning and a huge disappointment. We've been here before on several occasions down the years. However the background signals are hugely in our favour and my favourite model is good so I'm holding on for at least the 06z run. The integrity of which model performs best is going to be answered this evening!! Didn't we always say the gfs handles Greenland the best?!

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6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

But what happens if the ICON is wrong and then starts to go the other way over the weekend? ?

ICON has been showing the same for the last 4 runs. If everyone wants to ignore it what can you do? This despite it's proven accuracy at good range...go figure.

Anyhow i'm disappointed but there will be more opportunities. 

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Given GFS was showing runs that would give 1947 a run for a money it’s really not a surprise that it’s no longer showing it, it was a cold outlier. 

GFS/UKMO both good this morning, still cold with Easterly winds. ECM is very poor but continues to be the odd one out in the big three. 

No point being so reactive, one Det run does not end a cold spell, nothing has really changed. As ever, more runs needed 

On the other hand the GFS para + control, GEM, probably the UKMO (based on how it is identical to the GEM at 144hrs), more and more GFS ensembles are trending that way, along with the ECM mean from the 12z ensembles not looking as good and the last 2 operational ECM all would suggest that at least the idea of a longer cold spell is looking much less likely this morning.

Its NOT game over yet, but its totally knife edge now and when the models trend this way, historically they rarely bend back.

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Im prepared to give the ECM until the 12z from the POV that it should swing back to something more palatable than its showing now (ie - game over comletely for the cold spell), but it would really take a leap of faith to think that the first attempt will bring that powerhouse Easterly in, and tbh have thought it ever since that 12z yesterday.

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9 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Not to worry guys... ECM might not show the easterly we’ve been seeing in recent days but it’s gearing up for something more special! You can clearly see the strat impact starting to take hold. Watch that mid Atlantic HP shoot up towards Greenland 192hrs+

Yes, but then it all ends up going down the toilet by the time it gets to 96hrs. The start impact is doing sod all for us when spoiler shortwave suddenly show up.

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It goes wrong at 96hrs. 

The trough sinking South of the UK has a better disconnect from the system exiting the US which allows ridging further NE thay eventually leads to the Easterly. Not the subtle difference on the tip of Greenland  

1F906ADE-0847-45F3-8271-02C3F259955B.thumb.png.b0fe1fa83892e6697f8856bd01cb37bb.png

The ECM keeps the two systems “attached” and thus we see less ridging & no Easterly 

B18607E6-12A4-4D60-8093-DF3651E1D28B.thumb.png.00ee7e2c5409cb07b8fb0f576a4209f4.png

The difference between full blown Easterly & flat Westerly is incredibly small, the fact we haven’t seen far more wobbles in the output is surprising because of this. 

UKMO/GFS both make it, ECM/ICON doesn’t. 

Ensembles aren’t really going to be any help whatsoever because their lower resolution will make it even harder to resolve the situation so for that reason ensemble means likely to be fairly poor (reliability wise) until this is resolved. 

96hrs.. we have to see resolution very soon, one way or another

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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

ICON has been showing the same for the last 4 runs. If everyone wants to ignore it what can you do? This despite it's proven accuracy at good range...go figure.

Anyhow i'm disappointed but there will be more opportunities. 

Just a note.. ICON was the worst performing short range model last year I have been told... 

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Indeed the ECM ensembles may be good, but given the fact that bot hthe GFS and ECM ensembles have been adding more and more set-ups like the ICON over the past three cycles, I think I have my suspicions it will at least have reasonable support. 

Still, as I've said this is borderline, and it still wouldn't take much change aloft to turn even the ECM run into something decent, the marginality of the set-up swings both ways.

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Game over? I think not. Big differences at t120 in a volatile situation. Model watching is not for the faint hearted. ?? run through the output for the jet stream for the 10 plus days and tell me it’s over. ?

C21B99E0-2CFA-488B-B614-E7976416EBD4.png

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Worth noting we haven't seen the ECM ensembles yet. Could be a mild outlier

Exactly , why can't people get that into their heads , yes commentary on runs is ok but to rule out other scenario's before seeing the ENS is foolish

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You have to admit its exciting stuff and why we are all here and why my hubbie thinks I am having an affair with Netweather lol. Still could go either way just a slight correction of the shortwave is all thats needed. Can little old Icon take the crown this time. Or will the much belittled GFS shows us the light. 

 

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Just now, kold weather said:

Indeed the ECM ensembles may be good, but given the fact that bot hthe GFS and ECM ensembles have been adding more and more set-ups like the ICON over the past three cycles, I think I have my suspicions it will at least have reasonable support. 

Still, as I've said this is borderline, and it still wouldn't take much change aloft to turn even the ECM run into something decent, the marginality of the set-up swings both ways.

To be honest the ensembles aren’t going to be any help whatsoever here. 

I’d expect the spread to be even larger or equally as large as it was last night, with such small local differences being the reason for Easterly or Westerly, I can’t see the ensembles being able to pick out a useful pattern with the Det runs differing so wildly. 

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I've seen this drama happen a few times with the models flip flopping just before a cold spell and usually over a weekend.  This drama wont stop until late sunday and i bet things will be much better for coldies then... Try not to panic!

 

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Not unexpectedly the ecm is different to the gfs at T120 and nearer the fax

t120.thumb.png.6edfac2ba0ecc7c4ece4f3a935679ac2.png

From this point it's a different ballgame with pressure fro the west suppressing and pushing the ridge east allowing a front to progress around the top bringing some rain to north west regions by T144, Twenty four hours later the upper trough is dominating proceedings and the ridge is no more with a strong showery westerly across the UK with temps around average. By t192 the next trough has swung south east across the UK as the subtropical high again amplifies in mid Atlantic.

Clearly much requires sorting before any confidence can be placed in the evolution post t96

t144.thumb.png.d5ed98503a5e42ce1b35e753edf06c09.pngt168.thumb.png.8b5a434e363fb2af4344860b5238ac5a.pngt192.thumb.png.aa3ec71127c37c67dc0fb7023f84e026.png

 

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