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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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1 minute ago, Bottled Snow said:

Yes on a knife edge....even the GFS operational looked like going the way of the pear early nefore somehow pulling it out of the fire....UKMO also not as clean as last night...far from a dine deal....big ECM coming up ....

Can’t believe what I’m reading! These runs are as good as it gets for this nation. 

I think model fatigue is getting the better of some people. All models are agreeing on cold, how severe it gets is the question. 

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

GEFS up to 180 isn't too bad , I'd say slightly favouring the OP...……...slightly

Yeah its something like 35-40% shows a break away from the Scandi high, the rest have a very firm looking block forming.

The one good thing is most of the ensemble members still showing a tendency to slant the flow NW which would allow oppertunites for another shot at the pattern IF it doesn't hold as well as little lows running SE in the broader low.

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1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can’t believe what I’m reading! These runs are as good as it gets for this nation. 

I think model fatigue is getting the better of some people. All models are agreeing on cold, how severe it gets is the question. 

The GFS op in cuckoo land does and a few ensemble members. The UKMO may or may not go our way. ICON is dreadful and it sets alarm bells off straight away for me.

1 minute ago, AnthonyMcquade7 said:

What time is the ECM out thanks

6 am starts rolling.

 

We NEED a good ECM.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This is going to the wire. The thinnest wire imaginable. 

Look at the GEFS mean, the first attempt is buggared already, presume you mean the whole thing is going to the wire, GEFS - yes you're right whole suites can jump but very rarely do they jump to an Easterly rather than from one.

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GFS para goes...with a collapse and looks like the control run...

So that has backed away from cold on the 00z run towards, looks similar to the GEM.

Once again as I said earlier this morning, there is ZERO leeway now, ANY further SE and the pattern will not hold, simple as that.

Edited by kold weather
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4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can’t believe what I’m reading! These runs are as good as it gets for this nation. 

I think model fatigue is getting the better of some people. All models are agreeing on cold, how severe it gets is the question. 

No they don't all agree at all it has nothing to do with model fatigue its people commenting on what is shown. This morning has shown we are balancing on a cliff one side cold and snow the other bk to the land of the high as we have endured for over a month now. ICON, GFS control. Show this could go either way still.

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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can’t believe what I’m reading! These runs are as good as it gets for this nation. 

I think model fatigue is getting the better of some people. All models are agreeing on cold, how severe it gets is the question. 

not all models look cold and very few show a raging easterly from mid next week when yesterday evening only ECM and ICON did not...UKMO has a northeasterly this morning clipping the southeast coast of England at144 whereas last might it had an east to northeasterly over the whole British isles.....all roads may still lead to cold but definitely more knife edge this morning...in my opinion 

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

GFS para goes...with a collapse and looks like the control run...

So that has backed away from cold on the 00z run towards, looks similar to the GEM.

Para very like icon in the medium term. Very disappointing. 

 

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Continuing on from the short range with the gfs so need to start with the chart at T120 as it's around here that things have been going awry vis the energy distribution

gfs_z500_vort_natl_21.thumb.png.eaa380d695a46c8a843782951fe4b42c.png

By T144 the ridge is under pressure from the trough disruption in the western Atlantic whilst ridging sharply north east. This facilitates the advection of very cold air around the southern flank of the ridge into Scandinavia. Twenty four hours later the cold air is still just to the east as pressure is still being exerted from the west. By T192 the very cold air has reached the UK whilst a front has edged in from the west. If this scenario came about we would be looking at significant snowfall apart from very cold conditions

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.274b8ccc94af78de84d07d1ba200e8b6.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.7055d05a95e6994ea246ef2f3c05f2b3.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.f61f61859470ebcac72c546afb8506c9.png

 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the GEFS mean, the first attempt is buggared already, presume you mean the whole thing is going to the wire, GEFS - yes you're right whole suites can jump but very rarely do they jump to an Easterly rather than from one.

I've looked through the ensemble members from 192 hrs onwards. Vert few are as good as the op and there is some serious dirge in there, including some stinkers going forward (control included). A few reform the vortex and go +AO/NAO

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Some amazing charts but the whole thing is closer than ever to not coming off. All those lovely charts depend on things happening just right early in the run, and there are increasing numbers of solutions showing this not happening. So be prepared. The trend definitely isn’t great.

Edited by Djdazzle
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2 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

not all models look cold and very few show a raging easterly from mid next week when yesterday evening only ECM and ICON did not...UKMO has a northeasterly this morning clipping the southeast coast of England at144 whereas last might it had an east to northeasterly over the whole British isles.....all roads may still lead to cold but definitely more knife edge this morning...in my opinion 

 UKMO at 120hrs out. SNOWFEST. 

Doesnt look like just “clipping” to me. That’s most of the country. 

5E731A35-4EF8-41D7-A9A8-26CCB2616F48.gif

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I've looked through the ensemble members from 192 hrs onwards. Vert few are as good as the op and there is some serious dirge in there, including some stinkers going forward (control included). A few reform the vortex and go +AO/NAO

Problem is they are messy, as BA would say - a surfeit of clusters, still look great in graph form though.

image.thumb.png.67ad1852780693937d36cdfe6489a9bd.png

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Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

 UKMO at 120hrs out. SNOWFEST. 

Doesnt look like just “clipping” to me. That’s most of the country. 

5E731A35-4EF8-41D7-A9A8-26CCB2616F48.gif

Yeah looks ok at 120hrs. It does bare a striking resemblance to the GEM 00z at 144hrs though, and the GEM 00z topples somewhat pretty soon afterwards, though it never completely shifts away and still nice and cold at the surface even at 240hrs.

Still that's purely conjecture and the 144hrs is also ok for most, even if its not the most impressive flow ever.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is they are messy, as BA would say - a surfeit of clusters, still look great in graph form though.

image.thumb.png.67ad1852780693937d36cdfe6489a9bd.png

Look pretty good to me... The control run is useless anyway..probably as useful as the ICON or that WC model

Edited by Dave Kightley
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This 00z run is a work of art and a thing of perfection. Can it get any better than this. *Edit for my location to be accurate but great opportunities for the UK too.

anim_idx5.gif

anim_fcs4.gif

anim_xxp8.gif

anim_uhi7.gif

Edited by Seasonality
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I think my main message would be don't delude yourselves into thinking this isn't a tight situation, especially as the models HAVE trended NE with that shortwave towards Iceland at 120hrs, that has been MANY a cold spell killer in the past and is not to be taken lightly.

Hopefully it comes through, because if it does then a run like the GFS op isn't that out of the question.

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