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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Think most of us would to be fair. I’d hope to see westward corrections when the easterly pattern is settled on and over the years it has been well documented that gfs underplays this and corrections are made closer to time. Massive ecm though coming up..

Many in the west will be thinking what the fuss is about going by this run...Hopefully the UKMO is better 

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ If we back the pattern west then yes colder by all means , however its a delicate balance - cold > dry or slightly less cold with snow-

 

Anyway the GFs at 264 is now panning out in the top 15 runs of all time with the -AO tanking- ?

Agreed, its probably a top 5 by 312hrs because that's about to lead to a easterly morphed into a northerly, AKA a Dec 62, or better known as the holy grail....

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2 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Many in the west will be thinking what the fuss is about going by this run...Hopefully the UKMO is better 

Not really, sitting on the edge is a bit like playing roulette with the weather.. Someone in the west will probably get more snow than some of the east and visa versa the east get snow showers and streamers while the west can get battleground snow.. 

Win win (for some) 

But can we worry about the cold coming first 

 

Edited by Surrey
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1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

Many in the west will be thinking what the fuss is about going by this run...Hopefully the UKMO is better 

Well I guess for you guys you are hoping on a battleground type setups. (Quite the form horse atm)

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Not really, sitting in the edge is a bit like playing roulette with the weather.. Someone in the west will probably get more snow than some of the east and visa versa the east get snow showers and streamers while the west can get battleground snow.. 

Win win (for some) 

But can we worry about the cold coking in first 

 

While the Midlanders will be hoping it dosent move at all. Currently a pasting for central England.

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West/East, I think we will all see snow at some point over the next few weeks. This is shaping up to be some cold spell, not quite there yet but models still looking spot on to me. 

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Yesterday the tendency for the models was to show a more north to northeasterly flow, how this has changed in the models to a more east and south east flow come Thursday and Friday,  with high pressure to the north much stronger, than of yesterday, I think the Ecm would be different from yesterdays 12z, with a tendency to build stronger highs to the North,  Gender Male Location, Battersea London.

 

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Best and longest lived slider in history on the 0z!? Wales and the midlands get absolutely buried. 

The rest of the U.K. follows shortly afterwards. Continuous, quasi frontal snow and snow showers... and if that isn’t enough, the arctic high and Atlantic high decide to link arms as the initial easterly loses momentum and starts sending down more cold from the heart of Siberia! 

An absolutely brutal run. 

 

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2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Best and longest lived slider in history on the 0z!? Wales and the midlands get absolutely buried. 

The rest of the U.K. follows shortly afterwards. Continuous, quasi frontal snow and snow showers... and if that isn’t enough, the arctic high and Atlantic high decide to link arms as the initial easterly loses momentum and starts sending down more cold from the heart of Siberia! 

An absolutely brutal run. 

 

Severe cold as well, just for reference the west Midlands doesn't go above 0C after 192hrs...multiple -2/3/4C maxes, and by 240hrs the whole country is solidly into ice day territory.

I really am struggling to think of many better runs than that, certainly that's the best run form this cold spell.

Edited by kold weather
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The GFS might look poorer in the short term but that’s only because it was ridiculously good yesterday that anything more realistic in comparison might look poor. 

Stella run though, UKMO/GEM both amazing. ICON made a lot of corrections early doors, ECM to rejoin the snow gang this morning?

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Just now, CreweCold said:

That GFS run is brutal. The cold/snow would cripple the country. That's how severe it is. Some areas would have a lot of snow on the ground. 

Yep that would 100% shut the uk down . If that come off you can see the headlines on the news . FROZEN BRITAIN ??

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GFS ensembles are a REALLY mixed bag this morning, probably 60% go with a variation of the op and are either cold, or VERY cold.

40% push the low too far east and topple the whole thing somewhat like the ICON. Odds have worsened since yesterday. THAT is why we have to be very careful, its still on a knife edge, despite some cracking 00z runs from the operationals.

I should add mind you, just because those 40% don't make the first bite, doesn't mean they won't make a second!!

Edited by kold weather
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gens-0-1-168.png

Control run illustrates how fragile things are.

Not good overall so far on the models. Subjective because it's in comparison to yesterday evening. Need a good ECM.

Edited by The Eagle
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Just now, CreweCold said:

The GEFS raise the stakes. Its either brutal cold or something much more unpalatable. Quite the dichotomy. 

You'll have seen ICON get slagged off this morning for no reason other than what it shows.

Some might not be laughing soon enough...

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5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

gens-0-1-168.png

Control run illustrates how fragile things are.

Not good overall so far on the models. 

Yeah that perfectly illustrates how borderline that 00z GFS op was, the set-up aloft was nearly identical, just a little more extra juice in the jet coming out from the vortex never allows the Scandi block to take hold.

Luckily the ensembles do still broadly back the GFS op, though we've gone from 2-3 dissenters on yesterdays 06z run upto about 7-8 now. ECM ensembles looked broadly similar rates.

Edited by kold weather
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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS ensembles are a REALLY mixed bag this morning, probably 60% go with a variation of the op and are either cold, or VERY cold.

40% push the low too far east and topple the whole thing somewhat like the ICON. Odds have worsened since yesterday. THAT is why we have to be very careful, its still on a knife edge, despite some cracking 00z runs from the operationals.

I should add mind you, just because those 40% don't make the first bite, doesn't mean they won't make a second!!

Yes on a knife edge....even the GFS operational looked like going the way of the pear early before somehow pulling it out of the fire....UKMO also not as clean as last night...far from a done deal....big ECM coming up ....

Edited by Bottled Snow
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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

You'll have seen ICON get slagged off this morning for no reason other than what it shows.

Some might not be laughing soon enough...

Any model could be wrong or right I never really belive in stats. But no denying the margin we have to play with is miniscule and the control reflects this along with the Icon. We badly need a solid ECM but this reminds me of that ECM a few years bk.

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