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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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It takes a 1045mbs high to finally exert a solid easterly flow, the boundary before that point is literally down the middle of the UK. for the sake of ease, lets have a westward trend on the later runs from the GFS please!

We are literally at the far end of the flow, we cannot have any more easterly adjustments or the west and Ireland would come under a more average atlantic based set-up.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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Better UKMO run, some back-edge snow over Central Southern England Monday night/Tuesday first run to show this. Uppers down to -7C over East Anglia.

After the craziness of the 18Z GFS, the latest GFS run is fine with snow for many middle of next week.

All eyes on the ECM ?

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Just now, essexweather said:

Better UKMO run, some back-edge snow over Central Southern England Monday night/Tuesday first run to show this. Uppers down to -7C over East Anglia.

After the craziness of the 18Z GFS, the latest GFS run is fine with snow for many middle of next week.

All eyes on the ECM ?

Whats the depths showing - I am expecting about 2-4cm over Tops & 1-3cm here ( Brands hatch / West kingsdown )

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS is going to from zero to hero at 186-192 lol

643CC2C7-0754-40C2-B7E8-E0477C55AEC7.thumb.png.24fdca6be0fbad1ae28c89fdd29d242b.png

 

Its actually very snowy for the west on the eastern side of the boundary.

Ireland however still getting the winds sourced from the Atlantic and it shows as well in the temp profile, tight ole gradient there.

Push the whole lot 150-200 miles east and the whole UK is sourced from that same air, push it 200 miles west and the whole UK+Ireland is under cold easterly air...its rather close for comfort!

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1 minute ago, essexweather said:

Better UKMO run, some back-edge snow over Central Southern England Monday night/Tuesday first run to show this. Uppers down to -7C over East Anglia.

After the craziness of the 18Z GFS, the latest GFS run is fine with snow for many middle of next week.

All eyes on the ECM ?

Great to hear, I've been looking at quite a few runs and have been trying to understand why more models aren't at least showing some snowfall at least on the backedge.

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Would also like to add that gfs 12z yesterday picked out a surface low moving south Wednesday brining snow for a lot of people.. 

Its still there but its much further east and affects the central belt central England down into southern England, this is after of course the back edge event Tuesday... This is just 4 days away now.. 

GFS is fine... What we want now is ecm to back, I'm fine with it not doing it today.. I kind of expect that.. But tomorrow and Monday Deffo want to see an improvement of it. 

Thinking icon will start to turn around 12z today or 00z tonight 

Edited by Surrey
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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It takes a 1045mbs high to finally exert a solid easterly flow, the boundary before that point is literally down the middle of the UK. for the sake of ease, lets have a westward trend on the later runs from the GFS please!

We are literally at the far end of the flow, we cannot have any more easterly adjustments or the west and Ireland would come under a more average atlantic based set-up.

Correct me if i am wrong but doesn’t the gfs have a big tendency to underplay easterlies and westward correction filters in once the overall pattern is just about there? 

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1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Correct me if i am wrong but doesn’t the gfs have a big tendency to underplay easterlies and westward correction filters in once the overall pattern is just about there? 

Yes, gfs has westerly biased because that is the prevalling weather pattern and what it's mostly capable of doing... 

Its known for its westward correction with easterlys

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3 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Correct me if i am wrong but doesn’t the gfs have a big tendency to underplay easterlies and westward correction filters in once the overall pattern is just about there? 

It can do yes.

I personally would like a small adjustment westwards BUT what we do have instead is a classic battleground set-up with massive falls of snow in the far west/SW and some very bitter and dry air being imported from Europe on a ESE airflow.

EDIT - although there is a cold pool aloft nearby which does seem to be sparking some instablity despite the airflow direction.

Edited by kold weather
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10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yes, gfs has westerly biased because that is the prevalling weather pattern and what it's mostly capable of doing... 

Its known for its westward correction with easterlys

Indeed..

It loves a rapid westwards shift..

And when shes on the ball..-as now- its nearly always @the crucial point..

Top start AGAIN..VIA 00Z SETS!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Whats the depths showing - I am expecting about 2-4cm over Tops & 1-3cm here ( Brands hatch / West kingsdown )

Only a trace here and there, South of London, Hertfordshire and 1-2CM over the Midlands. Timing is great with most of it during the early hours.

Daytime temperatures from all of the models are not great, 3-4C for most. Charts are eye-candy for sure but at ground level it's hard to get excited just yet.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It can do yes.

I personally would like a small adjustment westwards BUT what we do have instead is a classic battleground set-up with massive falls of snow in the far west/SW and some very bitter and dry air being imported from Europe on a ESE airflow.

Trust me, - 10 uppers crossing the north Sea although the air might be dry, it won't be on the ground... SSTs I think are around 3-4 degrees that's enough.. 

Add in some of those kinky isobars and we'll.. You guessed it

 

Edit: approaching - 15 now your talking extreme streamer territory with the right flow 

Edited by Surrey
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Just now, Surrey said:

Trust me, - 10 uppers crossing the north Sea although the air might be dry, it won't be in the ground... SSTs I think are around 3-4 degrees that's enough.. 

Add in some of those kinky isobars and we'll.. You guessed it 

Yeah I've made an edit to that post because there actually is some decent instability aloft generated by that cold upper low feature nearby which I didn't really spot because I was too busy looking at what the low to the west was doing!

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

-14 850’s info east anglia . That is nuts ? 

2E469015-CBA1-4649-B476-4BEF4CFE674E.png

This aint !!!

Lol..

Yeah a hasty- tap of fall out ?..

We are still in a phenominal place so...

Splitting hairs via evo ?

gfsnh-1-210.png

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GEM looks great until about 168hrs, then has a slightly strange evolution. Mind you the UKMO is nearly identical to the GEM at the same point so maybe there is some credit to that idea of a shortwave remaining behind in the flow as the upper high builds in, no matter how odd it does look.

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Just now, Dave Kightley said:

Would like the cold air further west on the gfs... 

Think most of us would to be fair. I’d hope to see westward corrections when the easterly pattern is settled on and over the years it has been well documented that gfs underplays this and corrections are made closer to time. Massive ecm though coming up..

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