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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    53 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    NAVGEM is on board.

     

    navgem-0-180.png?19-00

    I think there was a hiccup yesterday and I've not paid much attention for obvious reasons (i.e. its usually crap) but NAVGEM has been pretty consistent in saying yes.

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    Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

    Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    One thing I have noticed on the ECM ensembles is the set-up still gets very snowy eventually, regardless of whether we have an early first breakdown or not, big trend for lows to our south to remain in place or to reform around the 28-30th.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

    What is your view on the percentage chance of the Beast after this afternoon's and this evening's runs Steve?  ?

    Probs about 75/80% ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Fair changes early on (T84) in the ICON 00z to a much more amplified pattern !

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yeah its looking a little better Steve, a touch lower heights over Iceland but the LP coming out of the states looks a little better lined up and more amplified. Relatively small change but every little helps in the grand scheme of things.

    Big 00z ECM this morning!

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    If ICON has this nailed vs everyone else like last Feb/March it's going to be a very sorry picture

    icon-0-162.png?19-00

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well failure on the ICON, getting closer though. Sortwave scuppers it on this run as the whole lot just doesn't locate itself far enough south and so even though the rest of the pattern looks ok, we STILL end up in a +ve NAO solution with an Icelandic low and Azores high ridging in.

    My gut would be the ICON 0z would probably try again down the line around 192-216hrs mark and send another NW in. Probable west based -ve NAO trying to begin forming at 180hrs...god I hate west based -ve NAO's, at least to start with.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    If ICON has this nailed vs everyone else like last Feb/March it's going to be a very sorry picture

    icon-0-162.png?19-00

    Yeah it won't be pretty, certainly not impossible though, we've seen it before go both ways!

    We have a -ve west based NAO setting up which will probably help to shunt the whole lot SE/S again at some point BUT I think there won't be a huge source of cold air and likely the pattern locks into  marginal set-up where we just have to hope a LP swings around the outside flow before too much of whatever cold air is in there washes and moderates out. Indeed that could easily sit there for 7-10 days in just such a solution...

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Then icon becomes a complete mess it's trying to 2nd guess the outcome. Shredder ??

    Well the longer range models are all going for the easterly so I don't  understand why people are getting hung up on the icon anyway. 

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The ICONs made so many corrections pre 120 - then 144 scenario is hardly trustworthy-

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    Yeah it won't be pretty, certainly not impossible though, we've seen it before go both ways!

    We have a -ve west based NAO setting up which will probably help to shunt the whole lot SE/S again at some point BUT I think there won't be a huge source of cold air and likely the pattern locks into  marginal set-up where we just have to hope a LP swings around the outside flow before too much of whatever cold air is in there washes and moderates out. Indeed that could easily sit there for 7-10 days in just such a solution...

    I agree completely.

    I remember when ICON first came out and it literally went with both easterlies in Spring when every other model abandoned the easterly or never progged it...it was 100% consistent. That's the concern. 

    But it's in a minority of one right now so let's see what happens. We need good runs this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Literally sleety ONE small shortwave in the north sea prevents the whole thing from at least temporarily connecting up. Seen it happen before however even at this range, so I wouldn't discount it at all. Need a big 00z from all the models today, got to admit, I'm a little anxious when I see these sorts of things emerge from the woodwork.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    So your ignoring the updated meto forecasts and the models they use this morning then, and going for the icon outcome. Good luck??

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Morning 

    Fell to sleep last night before the pub run and just read through , another brilliant run from the gfs 18z and the para . Icon still looking ? tho . Feel like I can’t sleep until I know the answer (Sado) . Come on switch back ECM 00z please and hopefully  gfs ,ukmo and gem stay on track . 

    Hope these come off -

    E9243C0A-C387-48B8-AE75-9A1955B8B490.png

    6B8D7B38-89EA-488F-B67A-B0920A87F9B1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    So your ignoring the updated meto forecasts and the models they use this morning then, and going for the icon outcome. Good luck??

    No one is ignoring anything. I think ICON is an excellent model and discarding it because it does not show what you want is foolish to say the least!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Lets see where the GFS -

    Everythings sharpened up @66 this far-

    All the little niche changes are working in the right direction-

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The gfs 00z..looks to be ALREADY..

    In early forms..

    Putting the icon 2 bed!!!..

    Remeber icon is a low esteme'r..

    And does well @72 hrs.. beyond that scope...

    Its legs are up in the air....

    On we go...-to watch 00z gfs evo..

    1st worthy 1 out of the stalls....

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    Lets see where the GFS -

    Everythings sharpened up @66 this far-

    All the little niche changes are working in the right direction-

    Yeah, only slight negative thus far is a stronger US low which is a hair EAST of the 18z position at the same time. Swings and roundabouts though and more or less the 18z and 00z are near enough to be identical in all the other key factors.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

    Damm wanted the Icon to be an early nerve settler. What is it with damm shortwave scuppering our Winter. We can't find one when we need one. I think the other models will follow suit now unfortunately. They clearly picked up a signal for that damm shortwave, ECM and now Icon.

    Edited by snowangel32
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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    Yeah, only slight negative thus far is a stronger US low which is a hair EAST of the 18z position at the same time. Swings and roundabouts though and more or less the 18z and 00z are near enough to be identical in all the other key factors.

     

    We need that Artic high to override that shortwave and energy from the PV. It's deffo squeaky bum time Kold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    Damm wanted the Icon to be an early nerve settler. What is it with damm shortwave scuppering our Winter. We can't find one when we need one. I think the other models will follow suit now unfortunately. They clearly picked up a signal for that damm shortwave, ECM and now Icon.

    I think the GFS should make it, at least at first anyway...I hope?! Upper heights strengthening to the north of the Iceland low is a good sign.

    We have probably a wiggle room of 100-150 miles now though on that GFS run. not enough to be comfortable at this range sadly!

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Ukmo say

    12 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    No one is ignoring anything. I think ICON is an excellent model and discarding it because it does not show what you want is foolish to say the least!

    I'm ignoring cuz its wrong and Ukmo agrees ??

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    144 8.5/10 UKMO a bit scrappy but the highs in the right place in the atlantic & at that point its all that matters

    The 96-120 timeframes are upgrading & thats whats important

    01D09586-08C3-4B03-87A0-3CF4E0F8798E.thumb.png.fde9c747cd9614106440c8ace26d59db.png

     

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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