Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[Banbury]

Why do I keep hearing the bloody 0z is the key when I also hear the 0z always downgrades things only for the 6z and 12z's to upgrade ?

[seabreeze86]

Well at least the 18z is sending us to bed happy what a bloody chart this is. Heavy and persistent snow showers coming in of the north sea

Edited January 18, 2019 by seabreeze86

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think we are still in business Ed? -  Darren Bett thinks not - i need something to give me confidence - the only thing that will make me feel better is a good EPS ./ ECM overnight early doors.

Unless he can foresee every chart that is going to occur over the next few weeks then I dare say he knows not a lot more than us. Latest ECM from T+144 may not have been easterlytastic but I would be a lot more cautious before writing anything off. There is still a lot of winter to run and I still don’t trust next tuesdays charts. 

[Weathizard]

I see where this is going  

[karlos1983]

South Eastern areas getting battered here! 

 

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now if we could get this inside 72 on all three models then BOOM!

That's going to be a right dumping followed by a beast with really cold uppers.

Welcome back Feb, we've missed you!! 186, yes, please.

[Allseasons-Si]

Well the 18z is an upgrade to me but i am not going to say BOOOM!!! yet until nearer the time

that N Scandi trough is there again which i commented on on the 12z from 150> but coming in earlier and more potent and penetrating the uk this time giving a better easterly at 180 ,good model viewing.

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[northwestsnow]

Holy smokes !!

18Z is a belter !!!

 

I hope its not one of those 'here's what you could have won' moments..

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Welcome back Feb, we've missed you!! 186, yes, please.

Is that a Murr sausage?

[Rocheydub]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Epic 

It would be mouth watering, except the saliva would freeze!!! PS. Got that message. Thanks!

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

South Eastern areas getting battered here! 

 

Yep , heavy snow across parts of the SE and Midlands 

[karlos1983]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Is that a Murr sausage?

I don’t care if it’s a mince pie, I want a bite

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

All sorts incoming from the east, holy shmoley, pub runT174:

The pub run has never been wrong at that timeframe

 

[lamppost watcher]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Is that a Murr sausage?

A semi

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Is that a Murr sausage?

I know one thing - its a right dumping across the Eastern half of England and probably getting to Western areas at times those streamers.

[Mike Poole]

Pub runT192:

From here it is a simple matter of exactly how the mayhem happens.  Popcorn?

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18 hrs run is sending us to the Hilton on Hyde Park compared to the ECM which has booked us into a dingy B and B !

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Is that a Murr sausage?

I think there's certainly the chances of the sausage making an appearance in the next few frames.

Edit. Here it is

[karlos1983]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The GFS 18 hrs run is sending us to the Hilton on Hyde Park compared to the ECM which has booked us into a dingy B and B !

The ECM is sleeping in the streets of Baghdad! I’m not happy with it, and if it doesn’t change it’s tune in the morning it’s not getting any more RAM!   

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub runT192:

From here it is a simple matter of exactly how the mayhem happens.  Popcorn?

That's one of the most perfect things I've ever seen.

[MattStoke]

I would like to re-tract my previous comments stating that the GFS looks good and consistent with previous runs.

It looks amazing and is better than previous runs!

[Cold Winter]

Phenomenal 18z coming out. A relief after the ECM but still trying not to get too excited...... going to be a nervous model watch in the morning.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 18 hrs run is sending us to the Hilton on Hyde Park compared to the ECM which has booked us into a dingy B and B !

That run the other day took us to the Park Lane Hilton!!!   -   gave me 28cm!!

[bluearmy]

Another strongly neg NAO run from the gfs ......

[Ravelin]

Is that -14 850s into NE Scotland, been nice knowing you...