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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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GFSP out to 150 and that is a big fat no on the easterly as well. So now its ECM, GFS, GFSP vs Meto. 

Very unusual for Meto to be wrong at such short range but given that the 06Z runs have the advantage of 6 hours of newer data it does look game over in the short term. Maybe just hold on until the 12z but not looking good now.

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1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

Oh dear, back to chasing charts that are 2 weeks away. Imagine if we'd been doing that since November. Fortunately we're not insane.

I've been doing it since November. Maybe that's why model fatigue kicks in. 

Anyway, good thing to read some posts of calmed experienced members. It is therapeutic. 

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GFSP not going with an easterly next week either. However, less influence from the Azores high and more of a quite cold north westerly flow than the GFS, so a much shorter milder/less cold blip as a result.

62E2B640-871B-4D9A-87F6-34A84FF12EF7.jpeg

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I think we should remember that while yes, we are disappointed with this morning's output, the GFS still ultimately goes for cold and snowy across the board. Had we not have just been teased with the easterly flavourings, we'd be celebrating that a cold spell is on the way based on the 6z!

#staypositive

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Could the Azores High ever be destroyed? 

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Too much energy going over the top of the Azores high, story of our winter! Still time for change though, historically once it goes bad it doesn’t come back but you never know. UKMO is our one hope, after the other day being the Scrooge of the bunch!

Troll models.

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I must admit that I'm a wee bit confused: 

For the past week or so, the ECM has been referred to as 'King of Models' and 'The Gold Standard'; not today though - today, it's the UKMO that is king... Is that because it's still predicting Snowmageddon?

Anywho, that aside, it's not even February (the best month for easterly blasts) yet!:santa-emoji::cold:

Lol, never mind UKMO, it's ICON that we should all bow to now. You couldn't make it up 😂

Been too busy with work these last few days to study the form horse in any detail, but the old fisherman's folklore saying of 'if harmony at T96 ain't in sight, then the models ain't likely to be right'  comes to mind. 

Seriously though, we've never had cross model agreement in the realistic time frame, and over reliance on a sketchy arctic high with an ominous, looming AZH was always going to be playing Russian roulette. So once again, it's back to day 10 (another old fisherman's saying 😁)

There'll be some out of kilter media reports today that might look a bit premature in their backing of proper sustained cold, who wished they'd held back. Mind you, Russian roulette is a funny old game and who knows what this evening's 18z will bring, however, I think we are now starting to see at best, a blended solution that will be on the less cold side, but still chilly nonetheless. Beyond that, we are all clueless.

Remember, it's only a hobby 😁

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1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

Could the Azores High ever be destroyed? 

We could try building a wall.

Edited by Skyraker
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Just now, Skyraker said:

Could try building a wall.

Haha ;)

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Here's the 00Z GEFS T850 ensemble for Suffolk...Post Jan 26 looks (with range of c. 20C!) to be almost pure entropy?

image.thumb.png.ea946bb7a7974b6b58fef67ddf2f13f5.png

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Gona stick my neck out and say its pretty much all over for NEXT WEEK bar tuesday/wednesday!gfs p has just put the final nail in the coffin!!i shall eat my words if things change for the better on the 12z!!!its just a sick feeling knowing we could be looking at charts for 240 hours plus all over again!!

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1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

Could the Azores High ever be destroyed? 

I think once we get a decent upper high over Greenland that Azores high may well be toast.

Anyway, for those *moaning* (rightly I spose) take an actual look at the snowfall throughout the run, its actually nearly as snowy as some of those easterly runs:

GFSOPUK06_213_25.thumb.png.a5cae70aec1ebe0f6efae28d9e869185.png

GFSOPUK06_240_25.thumb.png.96df58fa97b8afc780105e2619c43843.png

GFSOPUK06_312_25.thumb.png.906ce75f1d716dc2e87fd9178e5b00d2.png

GFSOPUK06_384_25.thumb.png.e47d910358ba8d14e2016e000f98d94e.png

 

I haven't included the set-up on Tuesday either...so that's 5 separate snow events on that the GFS 06z...

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Just now, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Hope not or we'd never get a decent summer without it 😮

It’ll disappear just in time for summer...you watch 😉

 

BFTP

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22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Sorry mate but your post does not says anything anout an easterly it just suggests the output is dire. Yes the easterly is gone but frankly I don’t care what Synoptics deliver the snow. 06z gfs is packed with snow potential over next 2 weeks as per My previous posts and here is how the run ends. How anyone can say that it’s dire is beyond me! 

31236BA8-9FE2-4ED0-84A2-BDCECF697E60.png

A8ED95DA-C47D-40D5-A7CF-67F62B077469.png

A good 06Z agree, but real cold is still in deep FI, uncertainty is still there, better time of year though for cold, feel mid Jan is too early, better in Feb/Mar

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Just a small reminder, as there's so many one-liners in here that we cant keep up:

PLEASE USE THE MODEL BANTER THREAD
Thanks

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GEFS not great either. Probably 2-3 with easterlies and another 2-3 that could go either way at 168. Control run also says 'no'.

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Feels like the neg NAO ‘seeding’ of the pattern has accelerated forward and distorting the large-scale pattern away from that which supports a well-positioned Scandinavia high relative to the UK... whether the models are right to do this in exchange for a faster setup of the neg NAO pattern week after next, remains to be seen!

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gfs-0-162.png?6tenor.thumb.gif.4e4c766479f54090ddd79f0a8eb95dea.gif

UW144-21.GIF?19-064282e8ac664c.thumb.gif.b90dec3661bbcf982c377d70fbda40ff.gif

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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Feels like the neg NAO ‘seeding’ of the pattern has accelerated forward and distorting the large-scale pattern away from that which supports a well-positioned Scandinavia high relative to the UK... whether the models are right to do this in exchange for a faster setup of the neg NAO pattern week after next, remains to be seen!

Yeah I've noticed that, especially in the last 24hrs the models have been getting quicker and quicker, seeds of just such a transition already revealing themselves as early as 192hrs on the 06z op run. I think once people get passed this probable failed easterly, they will see that actually nothing much has changed in terms of potential.

That's another value shared with Dec 10 and Mar 13 in that they -ve spells were brought forward and came in a little ahead of time.

 

Edited by kold weather
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NAVGEM 06Z says a big 'yes' on the easterly yet again. In the now very unlikely event of it verifying this model will have actually been one of the most consistent. Given all the arguments over which model is better than the others it would be funny if NAVGEM proved itself to be on the money! 

Edited by Jason M
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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why is the 06 correct compared to other runs or other models?

i don't think you can reason with those who post entirely by their emotion rather than on the basis of any science.

things are certainly looking a fair bit watered down for next week on the basis of (some) of the 0zs and the available 6zs but I don't think the bigger picture has suddenly changed. From past observations of this, there has often been a weekend wobble prior to a cold spell. No real scientific basis for that other than the models may have over-reacted to a particular signal.

Either way, it's a great opportunity to learn more through unusual synoptics which could still all give us the weather we want! How many points can we learn, as opposed to score?

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15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not really day 16 mate, pattern is already well underway by day-8 if you know where to look, but give the easterly up, its not happening the way we hoped it would, we move on and go again.

ust because one set-up failed, doesn't mea the 2nd or even 3rd will.

Such thinking is what got the states caught out by hurricane Michael this year. They have had years of storms weakening into landfall and people started to speculate that storms can't strengthen into landfall and that it will always weaken...except Michael strengthened all the way in.

Oh I know that kold, we definitely have more bites of the cherry it’s just extremely frustrating when we had the first attempt so close (possibley could still happen if UKMO trumps the rest) but it means waiting longer for another chance to get that cold spell . 🙂

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Well some of today's runs have put a spoke in the wheel and now we wonder if the appearance of a real cold spell will be delayed.

Certainly the feeling of less confidence now with really only the UKMO modeling hanging on to what we are hoping for.On that note the recent T84hrs fax shows a decent trend compared to it's earlier T96hrs for Tuesday 12z.

151355052_fax84s(1).thumb.gif.c76665e8b66565c7de4781fb40d6e238.giffax96s.thumb.gif.5becc5cbf0dd8f790f7b165ae2d9c3b8.gif

Just a small westward correction of the trough disruption over the UK,note the developing wave on the fronts near the ne of Scotland.A slightly stronger Arctic high building se towards N.Scandinavia which is what we want to hold back the Atlantic.

Early signs are good from that but i think we need to see what happens with that ejection of energy feeding se from the Iceland area between ECM/UKMO  around days 5-6. 

ECM1-120.thumb.gif.1a332cebfbe39d596632b9ed4cae235b.gif2085689492_UW120-21(3).thumb.gif.6d4a98a7900f3a8312d347260e357219.gif

It's a close run thing even with the UK model but the Atlantic ridge is just strong enough to push through the weaker low heights to link up with the Arctic wedge.

Hopefully the 12z runs will resolve this as time is getting short.

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