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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I worry too because the arctic looks pretty unfavourable on the ECM. I know the GFS goes for it, but given the downwelling happening we maybe about to lose some prime time.

Do you feel like it might just be one of those wintets where the vortex is just poorly located for us?

Nope - it will hit but it may take a few bites (assuming this one has missed which I’m not 100% sold on - I was never 100% sold on it hitting either ) ......... just a shame we are missing wintry time (and yes I remember beg last March but they were exceptional sypnotics at  and I recall looking at the slow thaw as the drizzle fell out of my window and thinking how incredible it could have been a month earlier ).  Chins up! 

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The fabled Arctic high.....How many times have we gushed at how fantastic it looks and yet I cannot remember a time it has ever helped the uk get the cold we seek.

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If this ends up been correct then it also shows the trop on this occasion is king over the strat, don't shoot the messenger gang but as I said if it can go wrong then it will, 

May go the entire winter snowless now there's a thought!!!

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope - it will hit but it may take a few bites (assuming this one has missed which I’m not 100% sold on - I was never 100% sold on it hitting either ) ......... just a shame we are missing wintry time (and yes I remember beg last March but they were exceptional sypnotics at  and I recall looking at the slow thaw as the drizzle fell out of my window and thinking how incredible it could have been a month earlier ).  Chins up! 

Cool, let's hope it is worth the wait. The fact muzzy says the extended are still good is good to hear. GFS ensembles also are still fairly good down the line into early Feb, lots of cold zonal runs with blocking hinted at.

Many won't believe it if it's advertised again though, it's upto us to take it at each merit but fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me I suppose will be the thought.

Edited by kold weather
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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM huge backtrack as The Slug fights back.  Its a big swipe at such short timescale, for me it makes it poor as well as the others....because if it was so good how come such a climb down at such short range.?  Ah well.....we definitely ain’t there yet 

 

BFTP

The pattern was dependant on a system leaving the esb (in a developing amplified n American pattern - tough to get that right)  and then, once that failed to live up to its billing, an arctic ridge (more of a node)  appeared on the scene to rescue things .....but they are fickle things .... it’s not quite past the point of no return for next weekend ....

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19 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

ECM 144 mean

EDM1-144.GIF?19-12

Not the best. I'll give it to the 12z before calling it though. 

There's no other way to put this than... it's a flip. 

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, the ext EPS (days 12-15) rock solid with a cold pattern.  Very low heights over Europe with heights rising to the north-west as advertised by the EC46 many times.

GP alluded to this exactly this yesterday-

And the EC mean keeps this euro low anomaly throughout, it may well be EC trumps the others regarding 96-120, even if it does, as your post shows, all is far from lost..

The over riding feeling this morning is frustration, understandably..but upgrades are not out of the question ..

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12 minutes ago, Heaywave said:

I am new to this forum, can someone tell me I heard somewhere ecm was updating to 4 runs a day I might be wrong. 

I hope not!

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No i think you mean blip

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

There's no other way to put this than... it's a flip. 

 

Edited by eddy88888
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7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, the ext EPS (days 12-15) rock solid with a cold pattern.  Very low heights over Europe with heights rising to the north-west as advertised by the EC46 many times.

Actualy you can kind of see that already on the day 10 means with the Azores hihh pivoting and the upper trough nearby with NW winds. I could easily see a solution where that upper trough drops further.

Remains to be seen how cold that pattern can get, it's not typically a great one for deep cold unless we already have a good cold pool nearby.

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The pattern was dependant on a system leaving the esb (in a developing amplified n American pattern - tough to get that right)  and then, once that failed to live up to its billing, an arctic ridge (more of a node)  appeared on the scene to rescue things .....but they are fickle things .... it’s not quite past the point of no return for next weekend ....

It isn’t but then yesterday morning it was almost all supported.  For me models are t72/96 restricted.....beyond that....well.

UKMO model 12z is the one today....I think it’ll jump ‘towards’ ECM.

Interesting that GFS holds back a bit then goes into the deep freeze.....could the ECM be too extreme a move and edge back a bit?  Very possible

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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6 minutes ago, Tuxedo said:

 

Ensemble mean of the EC at 144 is fairly conclusive I'd have thought, but like others, I hold total judgement until the 12z suite. 

If this is a fail, into Feb we look! 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GP alluded to this exactly this yesterday-

And the EC mean keeps this euro low anomaly throughout, it may well be EC trumps the others regarding 96-120, even if it does, as your post shows, all is far from lost..

The over riding feeling this morning is frustration, understandably..but upgrades are not out of the question ..

If I actually recall 2012 right, wasn’t it the 12z GFS that signalled the initial let down, and the ECM with the egg on its face? It’s like a complete role reversal going on here. The GFS was usually the first on board to signal the Atlantic break through. 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - to day 6 but not for public consumption at all (afaik)

incidentally, here is the 10/15 uppers from the eps - coldest yet this winter at such a range 

DC3FB5E2-D8BE-4752-9BEA-8AB2EDE27A60.thumb.jpeg.b6618ac4730d2b3fd1c18669dba87c14.jpeg

Good mean, sure does feel like we are chasing that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mind you!

Looking forward to seeing what the extended ranges look like, still have the whole of Feb to go.

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It isn’t but then yesterday morning it was almost all supported.  For me models are t72/96 restricted.....beyond that....well

 

BFTP

It wasn’t all supported though . We didn’t have all the models with the same pattern days 6/8. Far from it. Yes the trough drops but still no certainty as to how the ridge follows and how flat it bacame thereafter. Good means need to have good spreads for certainty. I haven’t told anyone about snow being a problem as yet ....... unless they live on a northern hill. 

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Good mean, sure does feel like we are chasing that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mind you!

Looking forward to seeing what the extended ranges look like, still have the whole of Feb to go.

We are 12 days from the end of this month!! We don’t know where we will be in 5 days time.👍

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - to day 6 but not for public consumption at all (afaik)

incidentally, here is the 10/15 uppers from the eps - coldest yet this winter at such a range 

DC3FB5E2-D8BE-4752-9BEA-8AB2EDE27A60.thumb.jpeg.b6618ac4730d2b3fd1c18669dba87c14.jpeg

No doubt this storm across the pond has complicated things Blue, i'm still happy to see the Euro low, which will be our saviour ...

Its an excellent signal- 

No panic from me, although i accept things maybe 'delayed'..

One has to be realistic..

Edited by northwestsnow
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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

If I actually recall 2012 right, wasn’t it the 12z GFS that signalled the initial let down, and the ECM with the egg on its face? It’s like a complete role reversal going on here. The GFS was usually the first on board to signal the Atlantic break through. 

UKMO never backed it at all, all of the ECM ensembles followed it.

There's been other cases that the UKMO has trumped other models which is why it's been titled the Slayer and such.

Don't move anywhere till the UKMO goes with it.

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4 minutes ago, eddy88888 said:

So why is this expert from the met office saying at the end of his forcast from this morning their could be cold and disruptive snow next week dont you think he knows the models etc should listen to him, here is link https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UKMO and gfs support the cold outlook at present and we also cant see what Glosea is saying. Expect it to change if they both jump ship later. But it's very finely balanced.

 

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Schadenfreuders dream here this morning, you gotta love em though😃

The influence of the beast from the west coming out of states may be overstated by the ECM after the initial data is fed in, it seems hard to believe one system can disrupt two large HP cells hell bent on a love affair so drastically.  I’m gonna check back it in at 18:24, I don’t look at the models anymore, it’s much more fun just catching up in here 🥶

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It wasn’t all supported though . We didn’t have all the models with the same pattern days 6/8. Far from it. Yes the trough drops but still no certainty as to how the ridge follows and how flat it bacame thereafter. Good means need to have good spreads for certainty. I haven’t told anyone about snow being a problem as yet ....... unless they live on a northern hill. 

It was supported well enough Nick by each op yesterday morning.  I’ve always gone for a transient Scandi HP which will directly then  indirectly, then directly etc affect us as I seem a futher diving displaced PV NW/SE towards us towards months end.  That means I was quite surprised by the strength of some easterlies...but happy if they come off. I think ECM jump is too extreme, but also think we’ll see a general move away from major easterly into transient ones at this early stage. Its about the troughing over us and into Europe for me

 

BFTP

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