Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon flatter at 84 hours!!lets see the rest of the run!!

Looks better at 108?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon flatter at 84 hours!!lets see the rest of the run!!

Looks fine to me at 108h though!

EDIT: ICON looks good at 120h!

Edited by TomW
  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON better on the 18z, better ridge and looking slightly more  likely to link up with the heights in the arctic, here T120, and 12z T126 for comparison.

image.thumb.jpg.9f385e5e8ccd45fb28fbe2f96a4495c7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.43b442600a2ad0a46754d5746041effb.jpg

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ICON better on the 18z, better ridge and looking slightly more  likely to link up with the heights in the arctic, here T120, and 12z T126 for comparison.

image.thumb.jpg.9f385e5e8ccd45fb28fbe2f96a4495c7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.43b442600a2ad0a46754d5746041effb.jpg

Pattern still a tad too Far East for my liking so probably wouldn’t get the first bite like we get on the UKM/GFS, looks cleaner than it’s 12z though which is good. All academic at this stage though.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

 

Roger J Smith

Members

 5,046

4,363 posts

Gender: Male

Location: New Denver BC Canada

Report post

 

Posted 1 hour ago

The two North American models are clearly seeing less disruption of a blocking easterly from the Atlantic, and I could relate that to retrogression they have indicated over North America. Time will tell if that's the case. But the GEM is known to be the most progressive-biased model so if it can find an easterly solution, that goes against its bias. The storm leaving the eastern US and Canada on Sunday-Monday heads up towards south tip of Greenland where it splits, so much depends on whether it encounters the first stages of north-south ridge building and gets shunted northwest away from the action. 

 

 

 

 

RJS

 

what does your research index model suggest as favourite?  Clearly this winter profile is a nearly but too Far East set up.  I’m not in ECM camp but middle ground again?

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some great model fun to be had lately it must be said; some of the options on the table are fantastic.  Sub zero temps and potential for disruptive snow who wouldn't sell their granny down the river for that. 

 

Let the runs well...run? Tongue in cheek Shaky...    

 

 giphy.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Marcus- FAX charts will be out soon, a real headache for the person on shift for sure!!

ICON 18Z slightly more amplified, but i can see enrgy where i dont want to see it..

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What I'm most disappointed about is that Tuesday seems to be almost nailed on as a rain event looking at majority of models when it had an oppurtunity for significant accumulations with heavy precipitition. Everything else is too far in FI.

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Marcus- FAX charts will be out soon, a real headache for the person on shift for sure!!

ICON 18Z slightly more amplified, but i can see enrgy where i dont want to see it..

Thought ICON was ok 😞

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

What I'm most disappointed about is that Tuesday seems to be almost nailed on as a rain event looking at majority of models when it had an oppurtunity for significant accumulations with heavy precipitition. Everything else is too far in FI.

Tuesday is a long way away with regard to the weather. Seen these situations upgrade plenty of times in the past

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

D Bett, nough said. He’s a mildy

Top post if it gets removed fair enough but that needed saying top class.😘

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Firstly wrong thread 

But worth a response , D Bett showed cold NElies over the UK , this is on the Beeb web site updated at 20:56

" NWlies mid week , then look what happens NElies later in the week bring even colder air "……………….it clearly didn't follow ECM

The BBC don't have access to any more data than we view on here to the best of my knowledge.

You are far better trying to garner some insight from ITV or CH4 who still use the Met office for their forecasts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Firstly wrong thread 

But worth a response , D Bett showed cold NElies over the UK , this is on the Beeb web site updated at 20:56

" NWlies mid week , then look what happens NElies later in the week bring even colder air "……………….it clearly didn't follow ECM

As was clear on yesterday’s forecasts, the beeb use the 00z run, even for their evening output so I’ve stopped watching them ....

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z's the key, nervy hoping GFS dosen't trend towards EC, big guns on here slag GFS off, and 'hero' EC

so looking at that, EC could be right

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Here's to a pub run special, and Shaky commentating on it in about 7 minutes. We should know about 10:15 whether we're going to get a favourable week next week for all or most!

Based on a Friday night pub run? 

Anyway, the icon 18z is still just more ecm day 5 than ukmo day 5. Unliklely to make the convincing ridge that Ukmo did 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Id disagree with that , a forecast issued at 21:00 is still going off early morning data ? 

It did yesterday evening  - the charts at 9:57 were the 00z op and not the 12z. Whether that reflected that they didn’t believe the 12z , I wouldn’t know ......but they had the Iceland ridge as per the 00z op 

sorry jo ......

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No more on bbc, Thanks.

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Based on a Friday night pub run? 

I worded that badly, didn't I! 

 

I meant we'd know by 10:15 if GFS thought we'd have a favourable week!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Rocheydub said:

I worded that badly, didn't I! 

 

I meant we'd know by 10:15 if GFS thought we'd have a favourable week!

Yeah. - especially as you took the pee out of shaky in the same post 😂😂😂

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont think UKM0 is going to be wrong at 120 personally and i suspect the FAX will be good.

Will be updated soon..

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles 12Z... London mean 850s stay between minus 5C and minus 6C right out to February 1st. 

That's good news. Thanks for keeping us updated on those. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×