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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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Here is the 168hrs mean from the GFS ensembles by the way:

gens-21-1-168.thumb.png.f94ebc719b63c0bf9eb39b6c35fbe226.png

Of course that's a mean between two different solutions, the runs that collapse the high pressure more than that, and the runs that have more of a Scandi influence but it illustrates again that cold is probably JUST perfered solution in the ensembles.

Also note the shortwave IS represented on the mean as well near Iceland...

In fact that ensemble mean is almost the same as the 12z ECM at the same point.

Edited by kold weather

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15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've looked through the ensemble members from 192 hrs onwards. Vert few are as good as the op and there is some serious dirge in there, including some stinkers going forward (control included). A few reform the vortex and go +AO/NAO

So have I and there are also some very good ones 

Edited by Banbury

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Its a funny old game this weather thing , if ECM is down a couple of notches and on the colder side of the mean we will be  happy as Larry but in reality nothing will have changed . 

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Anyone dig out verification stats please ?

 

 

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192 onwards ( GEFS) a fair few have the PV really beaten up , which can lead to absolutely anything 

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ECM coming out now, at least for now it feels like it kind of has the balance resting on it in terms of what is more likely to occur. We shall see what happens. I think Im just going to sit back and wait this one out and come back round 168hrs.

 

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Wobble, wobble, to be expected really.

We are just getting into the time-frame where it solidifies or all falls apart or more likely we get a messy inbetween develop.

I think a clean evolution from Atlantic ridge to Easterly looks a little less likely than it did but the good news is it looks as though there will be escape routes and some of them as with GFS 00z could be very snowy.

 

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morning   all  looking at the gfs from after Tuesday  i just hope the country is ready for what  could be coming  there  going to be a lot of the white  stuff from then till  deep fantasy   world  and some very cold weather .

i  just hope the  people in charge  are  ready  things  could get  very nasty  in some   places  here in the uk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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ECM not the way we want it I'm afraid @120 - 

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ICON was right

ECM1-120.GIF?19-12

Anyone want to slag it off now?

Edited by The Eagle
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Why do certain posters only turn up when things start to look iffy? Have to refrain from biting!

 

Hmmmm next frame is key, how can the UKMO and ECM be so different at day 5?

0F9A2890-2DB5-410B-9FC2-D1149A41035F.gif

DAFC73B9-D6A4-4AEB-982F-568F5739FC4D.gif

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Just now, The Eagle said:

ICON was right

ECM1-120.GIF?19-12

Anyone want to slag it off now?

Yes it may well be 🙁. But it’s not happened yet so it can’t be . 

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Dont even bother looking at the ecm at 120 hours guys cos its not gona help the situation in here!!theres no 2 ways about this this morning!!ukmo dont look anywhere near as good as last night gfs p no good aswell!!!there have been downgrades this morning and ecm could come out on top again!!

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And to add to that UKMO T120 is so different to EC and usually you would never right of UKMO

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Why do certain posters only turn up when things start to look iffy? Have to refrain from biting!

 

Hmmmm next frame is key, how can the UKMO and ECM be so different at day 5?

0F9A2890-2DB5-410B-9FC2-D1149A41035F.gif

DAFC73B9-D6A4-4AEB-982F-568F5739FC4D.gif

And GFS but that recovered so time yet 

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Just now, Weathizard said:

Why do certain posters only turn up when things start to look iffy? Have to refrain from biting!

 

Hmmmm next frame is key, how can the UKMO and ECM be so different at day 5?

0F9A2890-2DB5-410B-9FC2-D1149A41035F.gif

DAFC73B9-D6A4-4AEB-982F-568F5739FC4D.gif

Keep calm, they feed from peoples negative feelings. Its actually a condition that is now respected in the medical world (not depression) but we are tying to shed some light on it, my father is one of them... 

Don't worry, like I said I was anticipating a bad ECM... It will come back to light tomorrow 

 

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If it does go wrong this should be bookmarked to teach people a lesson for the future. Nothing is ever nailed on until T48.

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

If it does go wrong this should be bookmarked to teach people a lesson for the future. Nothing is ever nailed on until T48.

I don't think anyone has every said the cold is nailed on 

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Also i cant believe know one has mentioned that the ukmo and gfs have moved a lot closer to the ecm this morning regarding that low in the atlantic!!no where near as strong an easterly flow between 144 and 168 hours cos its slightly flatter!!

 

144 hours👀!!and we thought the 120 hour chart was bad!!!if that happens we might aswell wait another few weeks by then we are in mid to end of feb!!in my opinion this is it if it goes wrong now thats it i think!!!again dont take this the wrong just stating what the charts show!!

Edited by shaky
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Some calm is required in here... don’t be so reactive yes it’s not as good this morning but this seems to be a running theme! Was always going to be very unlikely to count down a beast, patience otherwise this place is going to be ‘fun’

Anyways here’s 144🤢 that Azores high is going to give me nightmares!

24FCB0CD-24F5-4F9A-892C-1C0CC403F85C.gif

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Well the 00z ECM also going for the toppler set-up...

Whether or not we make it to a brief easterly, clearly its not going to last and that the GFS is now something od a outlier later on compared to other models.

 

 

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Just now, Mucka said:

Can I borrow your time machine?

I'm just saying, it's going to be proved most accurate again and at decent range. 

I'm happy about that, not about the outcome for cold. 

2nd best model after the ECM for me.

Disappointed for everyone looking for a quick route to severe cold though.

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To be completely honest I think we are gonna miss the boat for next week, you can see even on the other models although they bring the cold air over us the notion is for the Atlantic high to drift over the UK, the ecm is at the very extreme end of that pattern but the other 2 mods stil in some way have the same idea to a lesser degree, I think a middle ground solution hear with uk missing out on v cold uppers next week but very cold surface conditions but no snow showers from the east.

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