Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[Fozfoster]

just popped in here to be surprised  anyone is still alive...........................

Edited January 19, 2019 by Fozfoster

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

9 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Those handful of  -10 to -15 trendsetters are disproportionately skewing the mean though

Corrected your post!  

Edited January 19, 2019 by Kentish Snowman

[Cheshire Freeze]

51 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 b) the fact that if i predicted the whole thing might collapse it would cause the level of bullying on here to get out of hand and i knew then if i dared defend myself it would be me that got banned and not the people that were having digs, despite the fact that i would have been proved right, but even after the 12z  ECM, people just could not see the wood for the trees.

Top post Feb. And something I have brought up with Paul. 

People should not be afraid to post their thoughts for fear of reprisal. 

The ECM mean is decent tonight at days 8-10 but it seems to have been that way for days and days. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by CreweCold

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

The lesser models are showing the same thing whilst the other models are over the place!

Exactly what I thought there seems to be more consistency between the so called lessor models than the main ones. Who knows they may all look like dog tomorrow but then again they may not

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

For where? 

Tops of the hills in Northern England and Scotland perhaps. 

-6 850' will not deliver lying snow in Wakefield under a NWly. 

Your post is misleading and would be better suited to the banter thread. 

It's tiresome having to shift through posts like this when there are clear threads for these types of posts. 

You should perhaps get a leason on/in thermodynamics..b4 jumping onto things!?

 The upper courses and force gages..are still of firm note..

And the means/supports although given a reasonable overview on ASSUMSTIONS-WILL DEVIATE and not correctly pick on the prop/downwelling responces...even @range-noted.

I think its safe ....AND reasonable 2 say...

Some will be rather shocked an absorbed..by middle nxt week..

Both a pattern match in model world (by then)..and indeed the occur @ living ground level...

A definitive major wobble just now...

But cross agree..for ..something akin to the mouth opening raws of late...

Gaining..

And to reiterate...

Its been laying on our laps....

Time to strike the kitten!!!!

 

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by tight isobar

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Just a thought ...... whilst last feb was a very different ssw, we saw the nwp model a repsonse for around the 19th feb on the models ...... this fell apart after a couple days with Atlantic firing up but the proposed pattern came back for less than a week later (with a vengeance). Now we aren’t looking at a scandi high this time but the euro trough, whilst failing to sustain later this week will have another go and another go and at some point it will stick! 

Throw enough darts and you will hit the bullseye but we have thrown thousands in recent winters. 

What are your views relating to a strong negative AO, was 2010 a coincidence or is this background signal a real positive?

Cheers, Blue.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out our chances of easterly's / colder and potentially snowier weather

I am still sticking a good majority of my faith in the ensemble NAEFS, due to how persistent this model has been with the signal for above average heights Atlantic / Greenland / Arctic / Scandi and if anything over the past few days the signal has grown / intensified 

108h   180h  288h  end of the run 

A bit of difference in the MJO forecasts but perhaps adding to some confusion for the models with it looking like we are entering phase 4 which is less favourable for colder conditions, a few hinting at possibly going toward phase 7 by the start of February which could help aid blocking but perhaps there is still some lag time with the MJO and also factoring in the strat event(s) and the USA storm it is no surprise the amount of changes / uncertainty with each run ATM.

Some other charts showing why it is perhaps foolish to write the pattern of NW > SE lows and possible easterly's off so quickly

    

   

Keep the faith folks plenty of time for some proper wintry conditions for the UK yet bearing in mind I didn't see any truly meaningful snow until the beast from the east last winter on 28th February (and I am yet to see any snow this winter)- 

Count Days

40 days

19 January 2019 - 28 February 2019 I would wager that we have a pretty good chance of many areas seeing snow by then and even March can deliver - aka March 2013 (not suggesting anything of that severity, just highlighting that there is plenty of time left remember my post from a few days ago where I showed how quickly things can change in favour of blocking / cold like Nov / Dec 2010 and Feb / March last year)  

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Top post Feb. And something I have brought up with Paul. 

People should not be afraid to post their thoughts for fear of reprisal. 

Thanks - its not like i am some sort of snowflake (pardon the pun), its like water off a ducks back to me, but if you give it you have to be able to take it - and that is the problem - there is no balance sometimes.

[johnholmes]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

You should perhaps get a leason on/in thermodynamics..b4 jumping onto things!?

 Theupper courses and force gages..are still of firm note..

And the means/supports although given a reasonable overview on ASSUMSTIONS-WILL DEVIATE and not cirrectly pick on the prop/downwelling responces...even @range-noted.

I think its safe ....AND reasonable 2 say...

Some will be rather shocked an absorbed..by middle nxt week..

Both a pattern match in model world (by then)..and indeed the occur @ living ground level...

A definitive major wobble just now...

But cross agree..for ..something akin to the mouth opening raws of late...

Gaining..

And to reiterate...

Its been laying on our laps....

Time to strike the kitten!!!!

 

 

If only you wrote in English, sometimes you do so forgive me if writing is a problem.

[fazzafarrand]

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out our chances of easterly's / colder and potentially snowier weather

I am still sticking a good majority of my faith in the ensemble NAEFS, due to how persistent this model has been with the signal for above average heights Atlantic / Greenland / Arctic / Scandi and if anything over the past few days the signal has grown / intensified 

108h   180h  288h  end of the run 

A bit of difference in the MJO forecasts but perhaps adding to some confusion for the models with it looking like we are entering phase 4 which is less favourable for colder conditions, a few hinting at possibly going toward phase 7 by the start of February which could help aid blocking but perhaps there is still some lag time with the MJO and also factoring in the strat event(s) and the USA storm it is no surprise the amount of changes / uncertainty with each run ATM.

Some other charts showing why it is perhaps foolish to write the pattern of NW > SE lows and possible easterly's off so quickly

    

   

Keep the faith folks plenty of time for some proper wintry conditions for the UK yet bearing in mind I didn't see any truly meaningful snow until the beast from the east last winter on 28th February (and I am yet to see any snow this winter)- 

Count Days

40 days

19 January 2019 - 28 February 2019 I would wager that we have a pretty good chance of many areas seeing snow by then and even March can deliver - aka March 2013 (not suggesting anything of that severity, just highlighting that there is plenty of time left remember my post from a few days ago where I showed how quickly things can change in favour of blocking / cold like Nov / Dec 2010 and Feb / March last year)  

 

No offence meant but that's like having an open ended bet, you never lose !!!

[cobbett]

4 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Corrected your post!  

ok i'll accept that ...for now

[ghoneym]

28 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

From what I can remember just before last years beast the models couldn’t get to grips with the position of the high pressure to our north and just 3 days before it came, the ecm showed the main thrust of cold heading to France and north Spain, before just the next day a north correction and we were in the sweet spot so I’m going to give it until Monday 12z before calling it, we might just get this easterly you never know .

Feb and March 2018 verification stats for some of the main models for your thoughts.

  

 

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

If only you wrote in English, sometimes you do so forgive me if writing is a problem.

..

No worries john.

I type very quickly, and don't @ times keep my sentence stacks in order.

Thats just me.

Apologies-for your non decipher.

'Perhaps i'll go slow mo'.

Edited January 19, 2019 by tight isobar

[Rocheydub]

22 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

You're not concerned about that shortwave west of Greenland at 84 Steve? Pressure is deeper between Ice-Greenland at 90 on pub run as opposed to 96 on 12z.

So 22 hours ago I raised the concerns of what was about to follow. The pub run pulled the rabbit out of the hat last night by inflating the arctic ridge... Who knows, as this is still knife-edge stuff, maybe tonight's 18z will do another magician's job on it. It's very early in the run, we'll know by T-72. But if by tonight, it's still the same, we'll look to round 2! Ding ding!

[Met4Cast]

Ignoring the mid-long term because quite franky, what. 

ECM for Tuesday showing accumulations generally restricted to higher ground in the North/West 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Throw enough darts and you will hit the bullseye but we have thrown thousands in recent winters. 

What are your views relating to a strong negative AO, was 2010 a coincidence or is this background signal a real positive?

Cheers, Blue.

The modelling firming up on a decent neg AO post 27th with NAO also neg

i just think we have been v unlucky this upcoming week ....perhaps expecting the initial surge south of low heights to just stick as a pattern change was a little naive .... the second and third waves look like being better - note the spread to the west illustrated above which isolates the Azores further away .... hopefully that reflects waves 2 and 3 will back further west which leaves us more room for error on eastward adjustments 

[Weathizard]

Can we please stop the whole I told you so thing? It’s infuriating reading multiple posts saying ‘I said this would happen’ 100% we all did get ahead of ourselves last night that much is evident but it’s like me resurrecting posts of people who were wrong and gloating, it’s pointless.. besides nobody is right or wrong yet as Nothing has actually happened yet!

[Rocheydub]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Ignoring the mid-long term because quite franky, what. 

ECM for Tuesday showing accumulations generally restricted to higher ground in the North/West 

Aperge not too interested either!

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Aperge not too interested either!

Forgive me but is that not before the front crosses the country?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Can we please stop the whole I told you so thing? It’s infuriating reading multiple posts saying ‘I said this would happen’ 100% we all did get ahead of ourselves last night that much is evident but it’s like me resurrecting posts of people who were wrong and gloating, it’s pointless.. besides nobody is right or wrong yet as Nothing has actually happened yet!

Aye people that gloat lose any respect they may of had IMO. 

[supernova]

34 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Feb and March 2018 verification stats for some of the main models for your thoughts.

  

 

JMA it is then. Very alright with that. 

EDIT: Shudda gone to Specavers. That'll teach me to jump to conclusions. Apologies. It's obviously inverted.

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by supernova

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Ignoring the mid-long term because quite franky, what. 

ECM for Tuesday showing accumulations generally restricted to higher ground in the North/West 

East of the pennines snow shield in full effect couldn't make it up and as soon as the front touches France and the Low Countries it all accumulates as snow again 

[Frank Trough]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a thought ...... whilst last feb was a very different ssw, we saw the nwp model a repsonse for around the 19th feb on the models ...... this fell apart after a couple days with Atlantic firing up but the proposed pattern came back for less than a week later (with a vengeance). Now we aren’t looking at a scandi high this time but the euro trough, whilst failing to sustain later this week will have another go and another go and at some point it will stick! 

In march, probably.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, supernova said:

JMA it is then. Very alright with that. 

 

U realise it’s the worst based on those charts ?

[snowbob]

21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

..

No worries john.

I type very quickly, and don't @ times keep my sentence stacks in order.

Thats just me.

Apologies-for your non decipher.

'Perhaps i'll go slow mo'.

Never apologise for being you mate

your posts are quite frankly amazing and just what this thread needs.

they are always accurate ( sometimes opinionated) but very to the point and informative for newbies.

you write as you think.

everyone has a handle.

if that’s how you view the models then crack on bruv

Edited January 19, 2019 by snowbob