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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Eastnorthwest said:

I still think we will see northeasterlies showing again on the charts in the next couple of days if the AO s forecast for strong negative  sticks over the next few days 

Its possible of course...

But my honest opinion is that the Easterly is gone, i would be very happy to be wrong..

My hope is we see some re amplification in the Atlantic day 7 onwards..

No euro high to deflect the jet north..

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Frustrating. There is our chance at 96 hrs but would require an unlikely miracle at this stage unfortunately. Just can't get the connection between the mid Atlantic high and Artic high. A tad too much energy through the GIN corridor.

EDM1-96.GIF?19-0

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM an outlier as early as day 3..

Like I said ecm looked very dodgy @96

ecm is trying to work this out

every single experienced poster said that last weeks route to cold was odd

this ain’t the norm

this still is in the balance I think

Edited by snowbob
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, mulzy said:

Guess what folks?

Ext EPS Solid as ever and if anything trending colder!

(Some may cry "jam tomorrow" but the medium range outlook looks tasty).

 

Yes, i posted previously my hope this storm will delay , not cancel a cold pattern..

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
12 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just seen this on Gavin p. Page gfs op has flipped to something less cold but the ensembles are trending colder or very cold..?

8C5B63FF-3EF6-49D5-9067-348AA69382EA.jpeg

Was going to mention that earlier.  They look like the first GFS ensembles approaching or that have actually breached the -15 mark all Winter.  Not in deep FI either....

The period from next weekend onwards needs watching closely IMO.  Could be all sorts of fireworks showing up on the models for that time frame over the next few days.

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

I still think we will see northeasterlies showing again on the charts in the next couple of days if the AO s forecast for strong negative  sticks over the next few days 

Correct, AO looks to tank into Feb.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Just now, tight isobar said:

Dan - its mass diverge atm..

But the signs are great..as we get the 96hr (crucial insight)..

The raws are playing and trying with the fabbled north west/nor-hem notions..

We'll likely be be bk firmly in the game very soon..and with solid cross model support...

Shes coming...

And bringing the once..baby to the door..

As a clad/ dapper dressed fella...

Exactly what I said

just not as poetic as you mate

ecm will solve this first

maybe as early as tomorrow’s 12z

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
47 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is a very encouraging sign. The updated fax chart for Tuesday is more amplified in the Atlantic than the previous two charts for the same day. Far sharper with the US low. 

fax72s (1).gif

fax84s (1).gif

fax96s (1).gif

But what does this mean ?

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just seen this on Gavin p. Page gfs op has flipped to something less cold but the ensembles are trending colder or very cold..?

8C5B63FF-3EF6-49D5-9067-348AA69382EA.jpeg

Those handful of  -10 to-15 members are disproportionately skewing the mean though

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Indeed look how it dives to -3 recovers to -2 then dives again to around -4/5

The lowest it has ever been in Feb since 1950 was -4.266

Edit: That was 2010 btw

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well I thought I would do a round up of the 12z runs at T144, interesting split we have this evening, the big three and icon.....

                                          VERSES....The so called lesser models.

 

ECM, GFS, UKMO, ICON

ECE1-144.thumb.png.054f6ae0768bb9e512218e0298764d48.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.13a6ab1a6c1d3fd5e11dfe70a5a2b679.pngUW144-21.thumb.gif.b4c8806f5043361b596ccf083b80be02.gificoneu-0-144.thumb.png.01ef3770c3543ed7ef66f996ef632abd.png

 

GEM, JMA, NAVGEM, CMA

gemeu-0-144.thumb.png.623129a74fa3eeb60d90a2d594f3bdbb.pngJ144-21.thumb.gif.bd9a21a29f30145ab53c7d102b6653bf.gifnavgem-0-144.thumb.png.a2cdf2b1cd3ff265e5c826cc920a0699.pngcma-0-144.thumb.png.ee74db0dcfb3b4ad23511ee51966c6f4.png

Interesting that the lesser models all seem to still go for an easterly, maybe thats because they are indeed inferior, but it would be interesting if the got this right for a change after the likes of UKMO and ECM apparently failing miserably where they should be pretty well the strongest around the T120-T144 timeframe. As they say, it's not happened yet. 

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its possible of course...

But my honest opinion is that the Easterly is gone, i would be very happy to be wrong..

My hope is we see some re amplification in the Atlantic day 7 onwards..

No euro high to deflect the jet north..

I think let’s wsit until 12z tomorrow before we say it’s gone, there’s still enough uncertainty to cast doubt atm

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

But what does this mean ?

Fax charts are drawn up by the Met office chiefs based on all available output, normally they stick with the UKM raw model and just copy it in black and white but today they have modified it to show a much better starting position than the UKM 96:120 chart from the 12z

 

Just now, cobbett said:

Those handful of  -10 to-15 members are disproportionately skewing the mean though

Likewise the handful of +5 members are ‘skewing the mean’ you can’t really skew a mean can you?

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

But what does this mean ?

For me, i am more interested in the trend in those Surface pressure charts. The Azores High is trying to strengthen and push North West on the 3 runs. The original poster is more concerned with the USA low so will let them explain that. However i suggest Exeter see the high at least attempt to ridge North towards the Artic, One to watch

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Posted
  • Location: Exmouth,Devon
  • Location: Exmouth,Devon
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The blow of losing the easterly is raw but i believe we will see north westerlies and the hope, not expectation , the hope, is we see heights building in the N Atlantic...

Which is what i suspect Exeter are signposting in their updates...

Hey NW keep the faith m8 because the second attempt at 384 on gfs will succeed ,it's screams total northern blocking greenie and nice cold ridge coming down to Scandinavia and it's the new moon on the 4th Feb,my old man always said if the weather turned cold on a new moon it would be the dominant feature for 30 days,but not everyday will be cold,keep the faith.

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well I thought I would do a round up of the 12z runs at T144, interesting split we have this evening, the big three and icon.....

                                          VERSES....The so called lesser models.

 

ECM, GFS, UKMP, ICON

ECE1-144.thumb.png.054f6ae0768bb9e512218e0298764d48.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.13a6ab1a6c1d3fd5e11dfe70a5a2b679.pngUW144-21.thumb.gif.b4c8806f5043361b596ccf083b80be02.gificoneu-0-144.thumb.png.01ef3770c3543ed7ef66f996ef632abd.png

 

GEM, JMA, NAVGEM, CMA

gemeu-0-144.thumb.png.623129a74fa3eeb60d90a2d594f3bdbb.pngJ144-21.thumb.gif.bd9a21a29f30145ab53c7d102b6653bf.gifnavgem-0-144.thumb.png.a2cdf2b1cd3ff265e5c826cc920a0699.pngcma-0-144.thumb.png.ee74db0dcfb3b4ad23511ee51966c6f4.png

Interesting that the lesser models all seem to still go for an easterly, maybe thats because they are indeed inferior, but it would be interesting if the got this right for a change after the likes of UKMO and ECM apparently failing miserably where they should be pretty well the strongest around the T120-T144 timeframe. As they say, it's not happened yet. 

The lesser models are showing the same thing whilst the other models are all over the place! Bound to change in the morning in both sets of outputs

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Two things about the ECM ensemble mean, assuming the previously progged easterly is now off the table:

1. Mean still shows amplification in our upstream sector...

image.thumb.jpg.9b16a5756e500d3d85fadf150f86b98f.jpg

2. The spread appears to affect the Atlantic and SW Europe mainly, reasonable confidence in the low heights signal over the rest of Southern Europe. 

image.thumb.jpg.cdec44051c677972ced73fe0d8376bba.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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