Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given the ec ens mean days 8/10 from earlier, it was no surprise to see that op. New ens imminent .... spreads will be where my attention 

Yes mean this morning sinking the jet over time..

Hoping to see the same tonight

..

Edited January 19, 2019 by northwestsnow

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually smelt a rat in the run up to yesterdays ECM 12z calamity, whilst the runs were still showing brutal cold, there was already a sea change, there was a shortwave becoming more and more prominent to the NE, at first though it looked good, and it looked like it would a) give us a dumping first,  b) lengthen the Easterly and give more showers afterwards to more of the North, rather than just be a sinker, but i saw it was causing the 'Gap' to the North to close up, what probably caused me to go along with the ramping was a) some IMBYism risk to reward policy, and b) the fact that if i predicted the whole thing might collapse it would cause the level of bullying on here to get out of hand and i knew then if i dared defend myself it would be me that got banned and not the people that were having digs, despite the fact that i would have been proved right, but even after the 12z  ECM, people just could not see the wood for the trees.

Yeah fair play to that I did read a post from you yesterday saying something about the gap closing and to keep an eye on it or something and sure enough that is what’s happening on the models atm. Hopefully they will start to open the gap back up again during tomorrow but maybe that’s a big ask. This time tomorrow will be either or

[frosty ground]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It will - a non closed circulation wave - kink in the isobars if you like.

But that won’t be the cause 

 

[icykev]

18 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

To be honest the JMA is been very consistent it has shown this for days and not swapped and changed like the others

You never know

[Eastnorthwest]

No real change to mild on the horizon, AO forecast to dive into negative and the charts showing some very interesting cold zonal at times ,very exciting times ahead I feel 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Yeah fair play to that I did read a post from you yesterday saying something about the gap closing and to keep an eye on it or something and sure enough that is what’s happening on the models atm. Hopefully they will start to open the gap back up again during tomorrow but maybe that’s a big ask. This time tomorrow will be either or

I think its dead now that one, but hopefully we can get the euro troughing to sustain, the problem is now (not just with me but others as well), there is going to be a certain amount of scepticism (perhaps overly) because we have had a failure at such short range, so obviously we now have to real another one in from T10000, it seems such a long hard slog, and the thought is going to be, how can we get one from that range in when we cant even nail a 120.

[Minnizi]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

The effects of the SSW are forecast to downwell at last early next week, we are not there yet, and I suspect the models are having a wobble at the moment trying to fathom out the effects - this is quite to be expected, as it won't be clear until the effects manifest. With this in mind, I suspect much flipping and flopping over the next 3 days, with various outputs showing the extreme ends of what could happen.

GFS has a habit of sniffing out the long term direction far in fantasy land, ditch it within a more reliable medium term horizon, but then draw it back run to run just within the reliable - it did very well a week or two back showing northerly interludes as have occurred now.. so with this in mind I expect it will ditch the greenland height rises in next set of runs, but bring them back mid-late next week within the reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs - roughly last 2/3 days of January. The drivers will be the interaction of the azores and arctic high - and how robustly or not they link up..  the jetstream position should have the effect of enabling sharper amplification  of the atlantic trough - a crucial ingredient for leading to the link up. 

 

Im sure i remember the gfs doing this last yr too. Correct me if im,  I remember getting all exited and told famliy etc. For the gfs to wipe out the BFTE on occasion but than bring it back

[tight isobar]

Things could be A LOT WORSE!!!

GRAPHS AWAITING!!

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM mean looks at 240 like it will be rock solid in the extended again - over to others to confirm, that's all that matters now.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM mean looks at 240 like it will be rock solid in the extended again - over to others to confirm, that's all that matters now.

Its a cracker mate..

All roads leading to cold...

 

[GeordieX9v]

Edging ever closer to -15 on some ens on the GFS

[northwestsnow]

day 10 mean- cold..

[Frosty.]

Awesome..very cold and unsettled = SNOW!

Edited January 19, 2019 by Frosty.

[Eastnorthwest]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its a cracker mate..

All roads leading to cold...

 

Hey NW Snow good to see you keeping the faith m8 ,I too think we will see some very interesting weather in the coming weeks, how about you 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

day 10 mean- cold..

Back to square one which isn’t the worst place to be. Before the easterly was flashed before our eyes the output looked a lot like this.

just got to deal with the failure of this ridge which will introduce mild air for a time but we should be looking at another go in 2 weeks time excluding the occasional but colder than average north westerly outbreaks 

[tight isobar]

Now c'mon...

A blip looks the worst..in the grand scheme.

Again..with gfs ens ..

V-decent variants  .

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Hey NW Snow good to see you keeping the faith m8 ,I too think we will see some very interesting weather in the coming weeks, how about you 

The blow of losing the easterly is raw but i believe we will see north westerlies and the hope, not expectation , the hope, is we see heights building in the N Atlantic...

Which is what i suspect Exeter are signposting in their updates...

[knocker]

Whilst going along with the fluid Atlantic for a time the EPS medium range mean anomaly returns to the more amplified and colder pattern which one suspects portends CAA via the N/NE once more  But the surface analysis looks quite complicated and usual best left to the det runs to sort

[Scandinavian High.]

Just seen this on Gavin p. Page gfs op has flipped to something less cold but the ensembles are trending colder or very cold..?

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Now c'mon...

A blip looks the worst..in the grand scheme.

Again..with gfs ens ..

V-decent variants  .

ECM an outlier as early as day 3..

[Pembroke Dangler]

From what I can remember just before last years beast the models couldn’t get to grips with the position of the high pressure to our north and just 3 days before it came, the ecm showed the main thrust of cold heading to France and north Spain, before just the next day a north correction and we were in the sweet spot so I’m going to give it until Monday 12z before calling it, we might just get this easterly you never know .

Edited January 19, 2019 by Pembroke Dangler

[booferking]

Great mean from ecm days 8,9,10 all eyes Northwest now.

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Awesome..very cold and unsettled = SNOW!

Aye, avg not at all to bad to me.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It so reminds me of this time last week, potential PV chunk moving our way, now chance again

[Eastnorthwest]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

The blow of losing the easterly is raw but i believe we will see north westerlies and the hope, not expectation , the hope, is we see heights building in the N Atlantic...

Which is what i suspect Exeter are signposting in their updates...

I still think we will see northeasterlies showing again on the charts in the next couple of days if the AO s forecast for strong negative  sticks over the next few days