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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Just thought I would illustrate exactly where the shortwave will appear as we get closer to T+0....

57CEC9E1-F156-4667-A0A4-30FF163CDC23.thumb.jpeg.4fd8c3f9072e42abc8a9dea9e3b4d383.jpeg

Well modelling still keen to keep systems moving NW-SE, which will always give us these shots at getting a ridge into a place conducive to UK cold given the current state of GLAAM with ridges trying to push north whenever they can. That combined with the slow draining of the vortex into the eastern hemisphere should still keep some interest in the medium range

Yes, that's what happens, it causes the 2 areas of troughing to engage each other, when it does it to the North of the UK its game over, and it keeps happening and its ruining our winters.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well today didn't really go as planned did it!  

The initial easterly is now off the table, and also those Narnia charts that were dependent on it.  Let's take a moment.....  ...

And move on.  

Still a very cold signal on most of the model output into February, even innocuous Z500 charts have quite cold T850s if you look.

ECM 12z T240 however, what on earth is this cold thing?

image.thumb.jpg.b75d6b7468cb259aff9110a5ff27f962.jpg

It has for got four short purple stumpy feet and a massive head, and none of it where we want it!  

Could do better, ECM.  See me!

Edited by Mike Poole
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10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Bored. 

Been reading, hoping and anticipating since November. 

Can’t be bothered anymore.

Amazing how those cold charts have just disappeared. 

26EE34B5-4FFA-4226-84EB-E6E141306A0A.thumb.png.bfc0b2888bb4e7d796137dcf77162aad.png

Back to square 1 at 216hrs on the ECM

Looks like Feb when we might feel the full effects of the SSW. 

Agreed. It'll snow when it snows, it'll rain when it rains.

I imagine myself and many others probably spend too much time concerning themselves with things like this, although it is human nature to desire anticipation of the unknown. Unfortunately, the models will never be reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, that's what happens, it causes the 2 areas of troughing to engage each other, when it does it to the North of the UK its game over, and it keeps happening and its ruining our winters.

But that’s just a symptom and not the cause

 

the artic high is not where it should be therefore the link up is not happening this allows small areas of low highs to remain in place which looks like a cause but as I said it’s not a cause it’s just a symptom.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
56 minutes ago, Borei said:

 

This is called confirmation bias. 

You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals. 

There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?

Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.    

 

 

I’m sorry but it’s pretty clear that a SSW that has a tropospheric response can cause a reversal of zonal winds from net westerly to easterly and a split or displaced PV. All of that increases are PROBABILITY of a UK cold spell.  It is not a guarantee. 

Edited by danm
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Why do Gifs of me keep appearing - I should be charging royalties!...back to the models, looking more or less onto Day 10 and onwards again! (like in December). :lazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

At t120 the ecm has the ridge coming under pressure from the trough that has swung north east from the Newfoundland area.It then proceeds east suppressing the ridge

t120.thumb.png.cd8a4aad6aaffda75b14e5b84318bd60.pngt144.thumb.png.a38c11b96e51f859a0aedab6ca60cc70.png

By t168 the next upper trough is tracking south east as the subtropical high once again amplifies to the west and an intense little surface low is about to impact Scotland and bring rain and strong winds to most of Brain over the next 12 hours.

t169.thumb.png.f518b93c3df887c1a40a80de05887055.png

From this point a familiar scenario as the ridge continues to build strongly

t210.thumb.png.b26358b1e5e6e98e3a5952d155a5d932.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

But that’s just a symptom and not the cause

 

the artic high is not where it should be therefore the link up is not happening this allows small areas of low highs to remain in place which looks like a cause but as I said it’s not a cause it’s just a symptom.

It is a symptom but i don't care where the arctic high is, you can draw me pre- Easterly chart, a chart that you think would go on to deliver an Easterly and i will guarantee you, that you can't guarantee a shortwave won't pop up and spoil it.

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

Things no where near like December's mild fest so we're still in the game and I'm hoping that models are doing what they normally do at weekends, before correcting on a Monday. Is there less data on weekends I wonder.

Shame it coincides when many of the doom mongers seem to be out, much like during Christmas hols, this place takes on a strange mood on days off when we hobbyists should be enjoying it.

If no improvement Monday then I'm resigned to waiting a few more days for the next rollercoaster, but at least we all have a ticket, just a shame theirs no height restrictions for those pram dwellers.

 

Screenshot_20190119-192432_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, that's what happens, it causes the 2 areas of troughing to engage each other, when it does it to the North of the UK its game over, and it keeps happening and its ruining our winters.

The Gin corridor?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

The Gin corridor?

Anywhere where you need the high pressure to be clean - spoilers can occur

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is a symptom but i don't care where the arctic high is, you can draw me pre- Easterly chart, a chart that you think would go on to deliver an Easterly and i will guarantee you, that you can't guarantee a shortwave won't pop up and spoil it.

Obviously but it won’t be a shortwave 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Obviously but it won’t be a shortwave 

It will - a non closed circulation wave - kink in the isobars if you like.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

While unconfident about an Easterly/North-Easterly occuring later next week (will depend how far North some of the Atlantic ridging gets and the amount of separation between the Lows either side of the ridge) the NAVGEM 12Z continues with a wintry Polar Continental North-Easterly flow and Scandinavian High Pressure combination.

9885DF8F-B63C-47CF-AAC1-CE2364FD70BE.thumb.png.a2bc8eae6df3e1d332b2ce85105a1e9a.pngBCFEA6F2-274C-4508-8E62-A93F23C7DB11.thumb.png.92ec7e679521f3468d371953479f9632.png1454F7A7-1929-4CCB-B84D-4691B837FC4E.thumb.png.ec5281d7cf8070dc7fbc567c011fe93c.png8B109410-23C1-4EE5-BD16-58B4C813806E.thumb.png.6891281868ebd1de82b231d8f6f3127b.png45E9530E-4EBA-4B3B-A751-1D41A82CB913.thumb.png.63ad7a1c2a2962dce243155113a56eef.png3FE2DEB8-F0EB-4D08-92F7-586339C27789.thumb.png.a9257ab0ea52fe472ae05cd5459751d1.png1E2B0DCE-4440-4C1F-AC8D-85A05AD43389.thumb.png.efe4b5077e2b3ed019154d04fd7739aa.png748A5D47-7F5C-427A-BDAC-D0E9CE65E4AC.thumb.png.05b4032daee1536da23f85e36c8fb7ea.png

But with the fussy nature of the models, you better print off the 12Z NAVGEM and JMA charts and keep ‘em somewhere safe. They could be going, going, gone on the next runs!

Rollercoaster is definitely what it is at the moment!  

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4 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Things no where near like December's mild fest so we're still in the game and I'm hoping that models are doing what they normally do at weekends, before correcting on a Monday. Is there less data on weekends I wonder.

Shame it coincides when many of the doom mongers seem to be out, much like during Christmas hols, this place takes on a strange mood on days off when we hobbyists should be enjoying it.

If no improvement Monday then I'm resigned to waiting a few more days for the next rollercoaster, but at least we all have a ticket, just a shame theirs no height restrictions for those pram dwellers.

 

Screenshot_20190119-192432_Chrome.jpg

The models have been hinting at 'colder conditions' towards the end of runs since mid-late November. Therefore, I can appreciate the frustration others feel when the cold is continuously pushed back.

If this trend continues through to Spring, this will turn out to be one of the strangest winters I have ever experienced.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It will - a non closed circulation wave - kink in the isobars if you like.

Ermm.

I aint kinky....

Or perhaps..*on 2nd thoughts* !!!!??

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well today didn't really go as planned did it!  

The initial easterly is now off the table, and also those Narnia charts that were dependent on it.  Let's take a moment.....  ...

And move on.  

Still a very cold signal on most of the model output into February, even innocuous Z500 charts have quite cold T850s if you look.

ECM 12z T240 however, what on earth is this cold thing?

image.thumb.jpg.b75d6b7468cb259aff9110a5ff27f962.jpg

It has for got four short purple stumpy feet and a massive head, and none of it where we want it!  

Could do better, ECM.  See me!

The thing that stands out is the huge areas of low 850s plunging down through Algeria, Tunisia and Libya!!   Seriously, I bet they'll get better snow chances than us 

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ermm.

I aint kinky....

Or perhaps..*on 2nd thoughts* !!!!??

Your need to do something to bide the time of this model drama mate

hope your not to tight

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