Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Is ECM about to come up with its usual 10 day boom chart that always goes "pssssphhHhh"

I don't know about boom, but it's pretty bonkers with heights climbing towards Greenland.  I think FI is around 96 hours at the moment.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Ice Day

[kold weather]

ECM 240hrs actually even quicker with the evolution than previous runs in starting to pull in a -ve NAO signature, maybe due to the better placed Azores high this time, but interesting and good to see.

[northwestsnow]

uppers at day 10

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

day 10..

Aye, next weeks E'ly seemed too soon, view models now, hope no downgrades for 28th

[snowbob]

I think the ecm might be the first model trying to get a handle on this @96

something has clearly made all models wobble in high res

this ain’t over yet

just my opinion put your weapons down

[northumberland snowman]

Ecm not what we were hoping for but certainly not mild. Great for the Scottish ski resorts which have had a poor start to the season.

[IDO]

I like the ECM, though I would not hang my hat on it, but very similar to the GFS, but a lot quicker. It tries to bring the Canadian Vortec SE in big chunks. 

Far better than the GEM, that leaves residue heights near Scandi that just bogs down the sector with slow-moving systems spinning off the vortex lobe.

GFS slower to complete the mission, ECM fastest and GEM forever.

Probably a mish-mash of the three, we shall see...

[WhiteFox]

8 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Bored. 

Been reading, hoping and anticipating since November. 

Can’t be bothered anymore.

Amazing how those cold charts have just disappeared. 

Back to square 1 at 216hrs on the ECM. 

Looks like Feb when we might feel the full effects of the SSW. 

Depends what you call square one! ECM shows NW to N bursts and hints of blocking which is what we would expect given SSW downwelling and MJO.

Square one, to me, is the horrible dirty UK high bringing endless gloom. The pattern has changed to colder, don't let the failure of ultra rare, ultra cold charts cloud your judgememt on a pattern that has definitely changed for the better!

Edited January 19, 2019 by WhiteFox
Typo

[Spah1]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not all SSW are born equal for those wondering about it. For example quite a few didn't actually impact the troposphere, some like 2013 only really got going 3-4 weeks afterwards (aka March 2013). Models are at least hinting at a decent burst of High level blocking occurring at the start of Feb, so that is a key date just to keep an eye on.

The date to keep an eye on was Jan 10th in December. Then 20th Jan and so on. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, next weeks E'ly seemed too soon, view models now, hope no downgrades for 28th

Too soon? We've been waiting since the last third of December lol. 

[Kev smith scfc]

14 minutes ago, in the vale said:

There are very few composite analogues available for DSWs; even SSWs only have a small number to factor into their physics. All the more reason to distrust lower level/surface NWP currently. 

We'll distrust at your peril there is information about dsw available,when it delivers it will prevail for 30 days,not every day will be cold  but the majority wil.

[Met4Cast]

Lol, even if it did snow some people on here would be too busy having a willy measuring contest instead of measuring how much snow has fallen. 

Looking forward to seeing the ECM clusters this evening, I'm fully expecting there to be a huge amount of spread if the GEFS are anything to go by, still some time for things to switch back more favourably given the huge range of options. Models not really leaning heavily towards any particular outcome despite todays Op runs, the ensembles haven't really switched in favour one way or another, if anything they've just become even more uncertain.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, snowbob said:

I think the ecm might be the first model trying to get a handle on this @96

something has clearly made all models wobble in high res

this ain’t over yet

just my opinion put your weapons down

I never had a weapon but I do so hope you are correct

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

Depends what you call square one! ECM shows NW to N bursts and hints of blocking which is what we would expect given SSW downwelling and MJO.

Square one, to me, is the horrible dirty UK high bringing endless gloom. The pattern has changed to colder, don't let the failure of ultra rare, ultra cold charts cloud you judgememt on a pattern that has definitely changed for the better!

We have a NW burst on Tuesday, of rain. 

[snowy36]

All's not lost , the next greenie is only 10 days away    Back u bags , lets go snow chasing again 

[john mac]

I think most outcomes are still on the table at 96hrs. Not worth getting hung up on anything after that. Today is proof that no model has a handle on this yet. Lesson to be learned. 

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

Ecm not what we were hoping for but certainly not mild. Great for the Scottish ski resorts which have had a poor start to the season.

Thanks, just completed my netweather bingo for when a cold spell goes wrong this along with ‘we weren’t really expecting the cold spell yet anyway’ ‘I told you so’ as well as the obligatory Navgem or CMA being posted. 

[Man With Beard]

Right focusing on actual snow chances next week on ECM :

- Potential snow chance for northern areas Monday night

- Frequent sleet/snow showers on Tuesday, especially in west

- Keep an eye on a band of snow stalled right on the Kent coast throughout Wednesday 

It's not the jackpot but it could be worse

[in the vale]

Just now, Kev smith scfc said:

We'll distrust at your peril there is information about dsw available,when it delivers it will prevail for 30 days,not every day will be cold  but the majority wil.

There are plenty of words written about DSWs, I certainly don't distrust the science, but there will be very few analogues that have been built into the models - hence the model confusion. Agree with you about the outcome though! 

[ghoneym]

Verification stats chart shows the JMA should not be ignored. In third behind the ECM and just behind the UKMO. Just thought I would clear that up. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Thanks, just completed my netweather bingo for when a cold spell goes wrong this along with ‘we weren’t really expecting the cold spell yet anyway’ ‘I told you so’ as well as the obligatory Navgem or CMA being posted. 

It's a pity no-one said anything, the day before yesterday?

[snowking]

Just thought I would illustrate exactly where the shortwave will appear as we get closer to T+0....

Well modelling still keen to keep systems moving NW-SE, which will always give us these shots at getting a ridge into a place conducive to UK cold given the current state of GLAAM with ridges trying to push north whenever they can. That combined with the slow draining of the vortex into the eastern hemisphere should still keep some interest in the medium range

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

Verification stats chart shows the JMA should not be ignored. In third behind the ECM and just behind the UKMO. Just thought I would clear that up. 

Now is it's perfect chance to shine then

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, snowking said:

Just thought I would illustrate exactly where the shortwave will appear as we get closer to T+0....

Well modelling still keen to keep systems moving NW-SE, which will always give us these shots at getting a ridge into a place conducive to UK cold given the current state of GLAAM with ridges trying to push north whenever they can. That combined with the slow draining of the vortex into the eastern hemisphere should still keep some interest in the medium range

Jokes aside I agree - Next weeks Easterly might not happen but the models are not suggesting anything remotely mild, GEFS remains cold throughout with the broad pattern remaining the same. Signal remains for a Euro trough and as long as that remains there's no chance of anything mild developing. 

[Purga]

The issue is the storm creating amplification in the jet. With the models in the US still adjusting the path of the storm early.

Also the downwelling of the SSW hasn't actually reached the troposphere yet (forecast still for early next week) - so big volatility with the NWP outputs.

NOTE: Initialisation errors are high at the moment

Beyond around five days the UKMET don't rely on the operational output and they don't react (overreact) to every computer run.  The ensemble outputs have been consistent in showing predominantly colder weather: the forecasts reflect the strong likelihood of cold weather with the risk of some very cold weather, in line with the ensembles that we can see.

Under 'normal' circumstances this ENS suite would have this place in meltdown!

Well worn, I know it's hard when you're young and enthusiastic ---- but be patient.....

Edited January 19, 2019 by Purga