Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[CSC]

I did say it wasn't over! 

ECM 192h brings the cold in again..

It looks to me, dare I say it, the jet could dg south even more and that would make it very cold..

Fantasy land may be, but the ingredients are there!

[Paul]

1 minute ago, Borei said:

 

This is called confirmation bias. 

You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals. 

There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?

Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.    

 

 

That's called calling the result before the end of the game. Probably best to wait until the winter is over before wanting a post-mortem, no?

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM t192 should cheer a few up

Yes but it won’t get there like this as it’s all wrong earlier on, it’s all too quick in it’s progression imo but I guess we will no a lot more this time tomorrow 

[Snowman.]

A toppler on offer at D7, doesn't speak longevity to me but hey some might get lucky.

[in the vale]

12 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

This was always going to be a slow response because it was a DSW not a normal SSW,it will happen but not until 3/4 FEB,research a DSW .

There are very few composite analogues available for DSWs; even SSWs only have a small number to factor into their physics. All the more reason to distrust lower level/surface NWP currently. 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Disco_Stu said:

....and all the other models are perfect I suppose? 

Yeah you both have a point. JMA isn't any great shakes despite Fergie once saying it was respected by the MetO but then what model has handled this well and gives any confidence its output won't change again tomorrow?

[Sweatyman]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA 192 (Am I on everybodies ignore?) 

nope. im very interested in these charts Mucka. and the Cma charts look similar

[ribster]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ecm cool/cold then blip as energy goes over the top followed by a north/ north easterly. Horrendous I know 

Indeed, ties in with forecast I've just seen, terrible news

Edited January 19, 2019 by ribster
spelling

[Weathizard]

ECM Comes up with a big headed dog at day 9, so far it’s a giraffe/seahorse and now a dog...  

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Nearly an exact replica of yesterday’s UKMO 144, JMA is useless nowadays though....

The ICON was being called useless yesterday too! Models are all over the place at the moment.

[Met4Cast]

What I find interesting is how the lower resolution models are continuing to go for the Easterly solution while all the high resolution models have ditched it

Is this a case of the lower resolution not being able to pick out the subtle changes in the USA lows track and ultimately has less energy coming into the Atlantic allowing the high to amplify and develop into an Easterly, or is this a case of the High Resolution models "over forecasting" the low and over reacting resulting in a much flatter pattern?

ECM is much improved out to T120 and then just goes off on a very weird, probably unrealistic evolution. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Borei said:

 

This is called confirmation bias. 

You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals. 

There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?

Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.    

 

 

Obviously i am no expert but i did think that the 10mb split wasn't wide enough, and while it allowed for wedges in the lower atmosphere, wedges are a lot less predictable and stable than proper Northern blocking.

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA 192 (Am I on everybodies ignore?) 

No, JMA is on everybody's ignore list, like the GEM. 

[Yarmy]

 The initial Easterly is a bust, but a brief Northerly then appears, and thereafter more opportunities?

Edited January 19, 2019 by Paul

[Banbury]

I'm happy with the pattern change if ECM is to be believed , it could well make the last week of Jan quite interesting 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

No, JMA is on everybody's ignore list, like the GEM. 

Worth noting that the Met do indeed rate the JMA as a model

[CSC]

The ECM progression I don't see happening.

What is going on after 120h?!

We can throw it in the bin after that.

The. Models. Are. Confused.

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA 192 (Am I on everybodies ignore?) 

No, think JMA T192 would be fun, thank you!  

Hasta la vista, baby

 

[Mucka]

Is ECM about to come up with its usual 10 day boom chart that always goes "pssssphhhhfff"

 

Edit

Nope, it just goes "squelch"

I'm a writer ya know.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Mucka

[Weathizard]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Worth noting that the Met do indeed rate the JMA as a model

Do they? I know a few years ago when it had a load of money and resources pumped into it they did but I think it’s fallen behind personally, would be surprised based on recent viewing if the met still regard it so highly

[Spah1]

Bored. 

Been reading, hoping and anticipating since November. 

Can’t be bothered anymore.

Amazing how those cold charts have just disappeared. 

Back to square 1 at 216hrs on the ECM. 

Looks like Feb when we might feel the full effects of the SSW. 

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Is ECM about to come up with its usual 10 day boom chart that always goes "pssssphhhhfff"

Not quite but the 264 and 288 charts would be good viewing  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Is ECM about to come up with its usual 10 day boom chart that always goes "pssssphhhhfff"

Ay, similar to GFS, still looks promising from around 27th-29th start date

Edited January 19, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[northwestsnow]

day 10..

Edited January 19, 2019 by northwestsnow

[kold weather]

Not all SSW are born equal for those wondering about it. For example quite a few didn't actually impact the troposphere, some like 2013 only really got going 3-4 weeks afterwards (aka March 2013). Models are at least hinting at a decent burst of High level blocking occurring at the start of Feb, so that is a key date just to keep an eye on.