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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA 120

JN120-21.GIF?19-12

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

Not the ECM 168 we wanted to see but I’m not convinced by it either. Odd evolution. Tomorrow may shed more light but not quite ready to chuck the towel in yet.

429B9787-2A45-410C-A910-D4571BC8F67B.thumb.png.9a004867aa708d7aaae45ab4057c2892.png

 

 

 

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It's the purple giraffe's head that has got me spooked on the T168!

image.thumb.jpg.ee3a4124eb4fb96cc82e6dda5869d7c8.jpg

But, seriously, the chance for a fairly quick reamplication upstream looks very possible here from this chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This looks a bit bEtter than this morning

3E6C7DF7-E0AE-4093-8277-3C042AC44AD8.png

Aye, hoping same as GFS, cold spell, first of season arriving on 28th

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
12 minutes ago, in the vale said:

This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. I think the models struggle with this transition period - starting data may not be easily parsed when dealing with conflicting obs at different atmospheric levels (strat, trop, surface) that are perhaps unrecognisable to the steady-state, normal conditions that models deal with - i.e. the transition period is going to throw up some strange anomalies, especially as the downwelling gets closer to the surface and more obs are factored in. ECM with it's higher vertical resolution may actually be more confused than any other model. Until the downwelling is complete - next week - and the models can 'recognise' an obs pattern that their physics can recognise as a start point, they are going to thrash around like a mackerel just off the hook.  I would not put much faith in any output beyond 68h. The big picture seems to remain unaffected by the transition - low to our South, high somewhere North - those keep us in the game. 

Indeed so, the GFS take on the down welling indicates the end of the month before fully effects on the troposphere... is evident

image.thumb.png.46fb8886b75f4b1c4df0d4c435b7e451.png

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We are well into fantasy land now when 96h hasn't been sorted yet.

However, 168h ECM looking tasty to me...

Atlantic blocking could still very much happen at 192h with this progression.

Edited by CSC
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, CSC said:

I would take anything past 96h on ECM or any model with a huge pinch of salt. 

Everything is still to play for and we could even still get the significant outcome next week we all want.

Cross model agreement is needed and we don't have that yet.

UKMO still going for cold next week and well done to them for sticking to it when every model at one stage was against it!

Game on. Don't panic yet!

Ermmm ...

Sounds very familiar...

That post

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl

Better heights in the Griceland area on this run although nothing major, was expecting the trough to sink through into Europe again...

 

*edit : there you go! Northerly...

image.pngimage.thumb.png.975d81552e8ae5ee3e3109713355454c.png

Edited by Nimbusman
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

JMA 120 hrs picks the baton up again!

 

J120-21.thumb.GIF.cc562a1032101ffa1b65e2184cb81447.GIF

Nearly an exact replica of yesterday’s UKMO 144, JMA is useless nowadays though....

4FE55064-60FC-4259-BD61-D77787BCF1AF.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ecm cool/cold then blip as energy goes over the top followed by a north/ north easterly. Horrendous I know 

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Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands
1 hour ago, danm said:

Sorry, but I’ve got to pull you up on this. 

Anyone’s disappointment with the potential collapse of this cold spell vs what the teleconnective signals were predicting is flawed. No one guaranteed the UK would see anything. The point was ALWAYS that a SSW, plus other favourable background signals, increased the probability of a UK cold spell, not guaranteed it. 

Those same experts you refer to have also stated that micro scale features and spoilers can/could always result in the UK just missing out. If you temper your expectations then you wouldn’t feel the need to criticise those experts on here who have been largely bang on with the broad scale pattern changes we’ve seen. 

 

This is called confirmation bias. 

You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals. 

There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?

Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.    

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

JMA 192 (Am I on everybodies ignore?) :cold:

JN192-7.GIF?19-12

 No, I'm with you Mucka.  Not holding out much hope for the JMA at the moment given the model onslaught from this afternoon.

ECM comes up with a nice northerly at 192 but I assume nothing more than a toppler (straining every sinew to tempt fate!)

image.thumb.png.f07594c4de8cd0f3f77b716334b1b016.png

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