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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Slightly improved angle from a cold perspective for the southeast of England as compared to this morning's EC run but still very much a similar trend and no shift back towards the easterly runs we saw over the last few days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

ECM looks better to me ! The trend away from an easterly seems to have been halted. This is still far from over !

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep collapse of the high over the UK at 120hrs from the ECM operational run, but its all looking very flabby out there I have to say, no real clear drivers of this pattern at this point...

Would't take a big adjustment for the block to stay firm near the UK on this run I feel.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to laugh at that 120 chart-

So many ingredients there for a UK cold spell- the energy southern Greenland certainly not helping!

It's still a close call tho NW.not sure if this is resolved yet!!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I just can’t see how it can go from the one chart looking like it may link up and looking quite good to the next frame. Just dosnt look quite right to me but what do I no

DE0E616F-2714-41C7-ADE9-43C96016ACB4.png

D38C28A7-0756-44AA-9BCD-E4B5A4274CFF.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It’s defini better than the 0Z chart. Happier with a stronger euro trough, that’s holding the Atlantic ridge up a bit more.

Yeah ,the arctic profile looks a little better as well in terms of heights, it doesn't look that mild at the surface at 144hrs still either.

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep collapse of the high over the UK at 120hrs from the ECM operational run, but its all looking very flabby out there I have to say, no real clear drivers of this pattern at this point...

Would't take a big adjustment for the block to stay firm near the UK on this run I feel.

It’s not collapsing at 120 ??

its being held up by low heights over Iberia 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Uppers just above freezing by 144 hours on the ECM but I imagine it would still be quite cold at the surface under high pressure.

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
Just now, kold weather said:

Yeah ,the arctic profile looks a little better as well in terms of heights, it doesn't look that mild at the surface at 144hrs still either.

A second bite of the cherry coming next few frames perhaps? 

 

ECM really blows up the low at the southern tip of Greenland between 96h and 120h

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Posted
  • Location: Exmouth,Devon
  • Location: Exmouth,Devon
4 minutes ago, in the vale said:

This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. I think the models struggle with this transition period - starting data may not be easily parsed when dealing with conflicting obs at different atmospheric levels (strat, trop, surface) that are perhaps unrecognisable to the steady-state, normal conditions that models deal with - i.e. the transition period is going to throw up some strange anomalies, especially as the downwelling gets closer to the surface and more obs are factored in. ECM with it's higher vertical resolution may actually be more confused than any other model. Until the downwelling is complete - next week - and the models can 'recognise' an obs pattern that their physics can recognise as a start point, they are going to thrash around like a mackerel just off the hook.  I would not put much faith in any output beyond 68h. The big picture seems to remain unaffected by the transition - low to our South, high somewhere North - those keep us in the game. 

This was always going to be a slow response because it was a DSW not a normal SSW,it will happen but not until 3/4 FEB,research a DSW .

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

144 is a really weird looking chart and I can't quite work out why

Weird.thumb.gif.30dda965f8bec9f5d64fd40278cd1060.gif

Odd evolution between 120 and 144 

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I would take anything past 96h on ECM or any model with a huge pinch of salt. 

Everything is still to play for and we could even still get the significant outcome next week we all want.

Cross model agreement is needed and we don't have that yet.

UKMO still going for cold next week and well done to them for sticking to it when every model at one stage was against it!

Game on. Don't panic yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
5 minutes ago, in the vale said:

This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. Sorry ITV edited for brevity.. 

Agreed. DL’s original point well made. Good point on the other side from DPower too, that not only may the downwelling be slower but also weaker than anticipated. Both likely, I think. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

144 is a really weird looking chart and I can't quite work out why

Weird.thumb.gif.30dda965f8bec9f5d64fd40278cd1060.gif

Odd evolution between 120 and 144 

Yep that’s what I thought, it’s a bizzare pattern almost like it didnt know what to do with all the conflicting stuff going on, where’s all the energy around the lobe of death? Nothing happening in the Atlantic

I actually thought t96 looked marginally better than this morning.

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