Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[Empire Of Snow]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA 12z looks like it might still deliver but only out to 84

Full suite of 12z is out on my Meteociel app. It still supports the Easterly scenario. Is it right or am I watching a previous run? 

[Matty M]

I personally never doubt the NAVGEM

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Matty M

[damianslaw]

The effects of the SSW are forecast to downwell at last early next week, we are not there yet, and I suspect the models are having a wobble at the moment trying to fathom out the effects - this is quite to be expected, as it won't be clear until the effects manifest. With this in mind, I suspect much flipping and flopping over the next 3 days, with various outputs showing the extreme ends of what could happen.

GFS has a habit of sniffing out the long term direction far in fantasy land, ditch it within a more reliable medium term horizon, but then draw it back run to run just within the reliable - it did very well a week or two back showing northerly interludes as have occurred now.. so with this in mind I expect it will ditch the greenland height rises in next set of runs, but bring them back mid-late next week within the reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs - roughly last 2/3 days of January. The drivers will be the interaction of the azores and arctic high - and how robustly or not they link up..  the jetstream position should have the effect of enabling sharper amplification  of the atlantic trough - a crucial ingredient for leading to the link up. 

 

[Nimbusman]

Decent looking mean by Thursday too (which is where the split in the ensembles occurs) Also how often historically has HLB been modelled to be pushed away very quickly whereas in reality its much harder to shift. The arctic high looks like it gets muscled away too swiftly. My interest remains

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Full suite of 12z is out on my Meteociel app. It still supports the Easterly scenario. Is it right or am I watching a previous run? 

I'm not sure what you are looking at but if it is JMA 12z ensembles then it will be the 18th (yesterday)

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Bets on ECM "run of the year"?

Wait till yeh see...

Prediction: It will be better than this morning but not there.

The models love to taunt.

[Mike Poole]

ECM rolling , question is do we care?  

My take is yes, the Southern European trough is the thing to watch for, this needs to be consistently modelled as it will be essential for significant cold spells down the line.

[sorepaw1]

Today's 12z for Wednesday still cold one or two showers in there.

I'm personally going to have 10 days off model watching .and on here.. and any kind of BBC forecasting or weather.

Then start again in 10 days  i actually feel physically exhausted when a hobby gets you like that its time for a break.

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by sorepaw1

[AWD]

Might as well post the CMA 12z output too;

T180;

I'd probably take that right now. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by AWD

[Empire Of Snow]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I'm not sure what you are looking at but if it is JMA 12z ensembles then it will be the 18th (yesterday)

You're right. It's from yesterday. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Empire Of Snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS not that different to 06Z, but the cold is still in FI, arrives on Monday 28th, good FI's lately, but tends to stay there

[Summerstorm]

1 minute ago, Empire Of Snow said:

yesterdays then look at the date in the top right pretty sure that reads 18th 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Summerstorm

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM rolling , question is do we care?  

My take is yes, the Southern European trough is the thing to watch for, this needs to be consistently modelled as it will be essential for significant cold spells down the line.

I do think we should take notice, especially given the ensembles of the GFS did show an interesting variation of what could happen. So who knows!

ps, I will keep watching regardless for hints of pressure rising over the northern latitudes/PV lobe shifting as per the GFS op.

Edited January 19, 2019 by kold weather

[Jason M]

Seems that anything that's running at lower resolution wants an easterly but higher resolution opp runs have no interest whatsoever. So CMA, NAVGEM, quite a few GEFS go easterly but there is obviously something that only the high res models can pick out.

[northwestsnow]

Uppers are around -7 in NW Britain at 72-

High ground event i would have thought- although thats a guess purely on 850s, perhaps others have more data(dps etc).

[Matty M]

EC 96hrs looks somewhat better than the UKMO or GFS

[kold weather]

Better disconnect from the PV lobe on the 12z ECM at 96hrs, but probably still going to end one way though.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Today's 12z for Wednesday still cold one or two showers in there.

I'm personally going to have 10 days off model watching .and on here.. and any kind of BBC forecasting or weather.

Then start again in 10..  i actually feel physically exhausted when a hobby gets you like that its time for a break.

 

10 days!? Good luck with that , no peeking at the 18z before bed then 

[Stuie]

Atlantic ridge more of a western tilt to it at T96 EC...

[supernova]

4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Step towards UKMO from ECM, I'm afraid

 

3 minutes ago, Matty M said:

EC 96hrs looks somewhat better than the UKMO or GFS

Eh? Looks further west to me but I’ll wait to be sure before posting definitively (!).

Edited January 19, 2019 by supernova

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Step towards UKMO from ECM, I'm afraid

You looking at the right model? Quite an improvement.. Better than UKMO and GFS

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Uppers are around -7 in NW Britain at 72-

High ground event i would have thought- although thats a guess purely on 850s, perhaps others have more data(dps etc).

For comparison, the snow I saw last night was from -2 uppers, and I’m only at a modest altitude (146 m). Not sure about other parameters though. -5 to -7 would give a decent chance to low levels, I think, so long as other factors are favourable.

Edited January 19, 2019 by MattStoke

[danm]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Step towards UKMO from ECM, I'm afraid

You do realise it was the UKMO that stepped towards the ECM don’t you? 

It would be wise if people actually let the run unfold before making sweeping statements. 

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Step towards UKMO from ECM, I'm afraid

 

3 minutes ago, Matty M said:

EC 96hrs looks somewhat better than the UKMO or GFS

Very hard to know what’s going on here then. Fwiw I’d say it’s better at this stage than ukmo but still very early in the run. Give it chance

[Matty M]

Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Classic...

One person is an experienced meteorologist; the other person is not